2007 NFL Week 13 Predictions Summary

NFL Predictions listed on this page are based on the default settings of the Team Rankings GameZone NFL predictions tool, a 100% objective and data-driven system developed by Stanford engineers. Default settings loosely reflect our research into which statistics tend to be good predictors in most cases.

We encourage our users to manipulate the predictions tool for each matchup of interest, and to customize individual factor settings to test alternative strategies for predicting NFL outcomes. Although we will provide performance tracking information at the default settings, keep in mind the following guidelines:

• The system does not incorporate or attempt to model the potential effects of injuries, weather conditions, coaching strategies, specific player matchups, emotional factors such as team morale, or anything else not listed in the statistical factors box. Making any corresponding adjustments to predictions will require your own judgment.
• Every data-driven predictive system has a margin of error associated with it, and this system is no different. We believe that a 3% to 5% safety buffer around odds to win/cover is warranted, as is a 1.5 to 3 point buffer around expected margin of victory. For example, if odds to win for a given team are calculated at 53.5%, margin of error means that the actual win odds calculation may be as low as 48.5% or as high as 58.5%, based on the variance inherent in our data set and models.
• Every matchup is different, and tweaking the factor settings for a matchup based on the specific characteristics of the two teams in question may improve prediction accuracy. Simply adjust the importance sliders and time filters for any factor, and prediction information will update.
• Try to give the "Help" section a good read. It's lengthy, but it will enable you to understand how this product works and how to use it best. We're confident that if you read the help section, you'll be convinced of the analytical power and sound mathematical foundation of this tool.
• Please remember that luck and probability mean that anyone can win or lose big over one week, month, or even season. The key is to adopt a consistent strategy that you can measure, refine, and improve over the long term, and to filter emotion out of the process of making picks. This product can provide the basis to do so.
• Have fun, and please let us know your comments, questions, suggestions, and feedback!

Last Week In Review

Week 12 was another solid week, with analysis at default settings going 5-2 ATS in 60%+ odds to cover games and 12-4 picking straight up winners at the lowest threshold (50%+ odds to win), which outperformed all of our benchmarks. Based on closing Vegas spreads, the GameZone predictions tool is now 42-26 (61.8%) ATS since its launch before 2007 Week 3 games.

In addition to some accurate calls on close games, the San Diego by 18 prediction (vs. a Vegas spread of 8.5) was clearly the tool's shining moment. It was a prediction that we were watching closely, especially since the tool's default analysis indicated that Baltimore had a miniscule 3.1% chance of beating the Chargers -- a far slimmer chance than even the Eagles' odds of upsetting the Patriots at home (9.5%)!

Lo and behold, the San Diego game was a blowout and Philadelphia nearly pulled off an amazing upset. In other games, the San Francisco-Arizona and Minnesota-New York Giants upsets were certainly surprising in an unfortunate way, although those unexpected results were balanced out by some very favorable turns late in the Chicago-Denver and Seattle-St. Louis games. Just another reminder that luck is unpredictable and can break any way in the short term; in the end, long-term performance is all that matters.

We received an email this past week from a user who asked us why the GameZone prediction tool "only seems to pick favorites to cover the spread." It was an interesting point, as favorite vs. underdog picks is a measure that we haven't even been tracking. In short, if this is the case, then it is definitely not as a result of some built in bias. The prediction tool is based on completely objective mathematical algorithms that identify similar historical games and calculate predictions from the results of those games.

If it does turn out that favorites represent most of the tool's 60%+ odds to cover predictions, that fact would probably lend some support to the theory that the betting public -- if we make the assumption that the public largely drives the closing spreads -- tends to overestimate the chances of underdogs covering the spread more often than it overestimates the odds of the favorite to cover the spread. (Based on similar historical results, at least.) That theory doesn't sound too farfetched, especially if you believe that the public loves a good underdog story and is often apt to believe that bad teams are better than they actually are, especially if those bad teams have happened to win a game or two recently.

In closing, there is a lot going on over here at Team Rankings HQ so forgive us for the Notes from the Nerds inconsistencies of late. In these review notes, we've done our best to educate our users on different ways to use the tool's settings and to point out how to analyze different angles. We hope many of you are now comfortable enough to do your own research and sensitivity analaysis based on different settings.

Thanks to everyone who has sent us their feedback and suggestions for improving the tool; we promise to get back to all of you in the next few weeks. As always, shoot us an email with your questions and comments and check out our fantasy football player projections for Week 13, which should be posted by Tuesday night.

NFL Week 13 Preview

Remember to think about the potential impact of injuries and adverse weather on games late in the season. The prediction tool doesn't include any weather-specific factors at this time, but the "Week of Game" factor focuses similar game searches on games occurring at about the same time of year.

NFL Week 13 Predictions Summary

Below is our Team Rankings GameZone predictions summary for all NFL Week 13 games. Although we update this page periodically, predictions can change multiple times per day based on new information such as shifting NFL betting lines. Click on "View Predictions" to see the most recent lines and predictions and to customize factor settings.