NFL Wild Card Week in Review
Default settings predictions were 3-1 picking winners at the 50% odds to win threshold during Wild Card week, with the Giants game the highlight and
the Redskins-Seattle game the lowlight. While we feel that the Seattle game was closer than the final score indicated, and the tool only expected Washington to win by
around 3 points, a loss is a loss. We'll be looking into home advantage more next year as a result. But we'll take 3-1. Against the spread, the default settings predictions were 1-1 in 60% odds to cover games.
NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview
Finding an edge in playoff games, especially against the spread, can be significantly more difficult due to the much higher level of focus that can be paid to each game by the folks
who set lines and move the markets. Team parity is obviously quite high, and one can't anticipate many situations where odds to cover predictions or expected win margins will diverge greatly from
market expectations. The tool's default analysis predictions indicate that all of the betting line favorites have at least 60% odds to win this week, but remember that 60% odds to win means that
a team will lose 4 games out of 10. Probability augurs at least one upset lurking out there this week...luck will mostly dictate whether you'll pick it!
NFL Divisional Playoffs Predictions Summary
Below is our Team Rankings GameZone predictions summary for all
NFL Week 19 games. Although we update this page
periodically, predictions can change multiple times per day based on
new information such as shifting NFL betting lines. Click on
"View Predictions" to see the most recent lines
and predictions and to customize factor settings.
 Seattle Seahawks at  Green Bay Packers
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Based on a point spread of Green Bay -7.5, analysis at default settings
shows Green Bay as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 74.6% and an expected
margin of 8.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates Green Bay as the very slight favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 54.9% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: We don't see any major
situational conditions that would change our opinions on the predictions. Despite the Packers losing two of their last three playoff games,
you can't base conclusions on micro-trends like that. The Packers are the better team, they are playing at home, coming off
extra rest, and the temperature should be positively frigid. If we wanted to pick an upset game, this would not be it.
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 Jacksonville Jaguars at  New England Patriots
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Based on a point spread of New England -13, analysis at default settings
shows New England as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 89.3% and an expected
margin of 13.4 points. Similar games analysis indicates New England as the slight favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 57.4% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Warning signs on this one; you don't often see spreads like this for historical playoff games. As a result, the predictions
for this game need to be taken with a grain of salt; the underlying data set upon which they are based is not as relevant as that for other
games. At a spread of -10 or so, the tool's analysis would have the Pats as slight favorties to cover with a fairly high degree of certainty. A sample size
of similar historical games that is not big enough to base any solid conclusions on, however, shows that the team like the Jags usually has covered spreads
greater than -11 in similar game situations. Then again, the Pats have the advantage of one extra week of rest on their side and the Jags are figting a few more injuries. The numbers will likely
never justify an expectation of New England not winning, but given the lack of data, we can't make a very informed call ATS.
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 San Diego Chargers at  Indianapolis Colts
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Based on a point spread of Indianapolis -10, analysis at default settings
shows Indianapolis as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 67.2% and an expected
margin of 6.4 points. Similar games analysis indicates San Diego as the slight favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 57.1% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: With both teams playing at full strength and with equal rest, San Diego to cover would appear to be a
decently strong pick. However, the injury to Antonio Gates and the much improved health of the Colts throw a twist into the analysis. Although the
Chargers eeked out a victory over a relatively banged up Colts squad at home, they now face dome conditions, a hostile environment, and a Colts team
that has had more rest and recovery time. Something tells us this game is either going to be very close, or a Colts blow out. Given all the
fudge factors, we would probably lay
off.
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 New York Giants at  Dallas Cowboys
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Based on a point spread of Dallas -7.5, analysis at default settings
shows Dallas as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 65.4% and an expected
margin of 7.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is efficient.
Notes from the Nerds: Dallas has beaten the Giants twice already this season, so this game is a lock at home, right?
We're not so sure. Although the Cowboys' power ratings are higher -- and that includes the effect of their Week 17 blowout loss -- and they're coming off
an extra week of rest, who knows if TO will be a factor, and their end of season performance wasn't so convincing. While the Vegas spread appears
efficient at -7.5, it is worth noting that the tool indicates that Dallas has the lowest odds to win of any Divisional playoff favorite, and there
seem to be a lot fewer "fudge factors" in their favor than say, the Colts have in their favor. So if forced to pick an upset game,
this would probably be our choice.
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