NFL Divisional Playoffs In Review
At default settings, the NFL GameZone predictions tool was 2-2 picking winners at the lowest (50% odds to win) threshold, and 1-1 against the
Vegas spreads at the 55% odds to cover threshold. (There were no 60%+ odds to cover games.) Unfortunately, the tool had the Packers at 54.9% odds to
cover, just shy of our 3-5% margin of error cutoff! If you had read the notes about the Patriots game and laid off, though, you'd still have gone +1 against the spread.
There is a lot of randomness at play in a sample size of four games, but remember to look at the odds predictions as a group and not just individually, especially
if you are in a pick'em contest. Last week, for example, the tool showed the favorites having about 90%, 75%, 65%, and 65% odds to win. Although individually, all of the
favorites were expected to win, viewed as a group, that set of odds indicates a high likelihood of at least one upset. In the Notes from the Nerds, our subjective opinion
leaned toward the Cowboys as the prime upset target, a hunch that ended up being correct.
NFL Conference Championships Preview
Both games this week have interesting sides to them data-wise. As GameZone users have known all season long, the wild spreads commanded by the
Patriots always warrant more in-depth analysis of their matchups. As for the Packers-Giants game, the tool indicates that it has a decent chance of being closer than
the betting lines currently suggest. As always, injuries and weather, currently not considered by the GameZone tool, must be addressed subjectively.
NFL Conference Championships Predictions Summary
Below is our Team Rankings GameZone predictions summary for all
NFL Conference Championship games. Although we update this page
periodically, predictions can change multiple times per day based on
new information such as shifting NFL betting lines. Click on
"View Predictions" to see the most recent lines
and predictions and to customize factor settings.
 San Diego Chargers at  New England Patriots
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Based on a point spread of New England -14, analysis at default settings
shows New England as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 82.3% and an expected
margin of 11.1 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas point spread is efficient.
Notes from the Nerds: Again, because of the lack of playoff spreads this large, Patriots predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt. Looking at similar historical
games (late season, between statistically similar teams) with spreads of over 10 points, you can really only pick out about seven games out of the 20 most similar contests identified by the
prediction tool. Of those seven games, the team like San Diego covered in four of them, and won in two. That sample size is way too small to make any sound conclusions, but based on the data
we have, at full strength we'd probably give San Diego higher odds to win this game (maybe 20-25%) than most people seem to be giving them, and a better than even chance to cover -14. At full strength,
this is a much different team that played the Patriots earlier this season.
That being said, three of San Diego's strong contributors (Rivers, Gates, Tomlinson) are fighting mild to serious injuries, and they will be playing in the coldest weather they have seen
yet this season. (Conditions look to be dry, though.) So it appears like the Chargers defense will play a critical role in the outcome of this one. Let's not forget that a backup QB from Philly
nearly took the Patriots down at home this year. While we don't think this game will be an upset, if we had to choose, we'd probably take San Diego to cover even at 95% strength. Mathematically, we'd
have to pass on this one though.
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 New York Giants at  Green Bay Packers
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Based on a point spread of Green Bay -7.5, analysis at default settings
shows Green Bay as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 64.7% and an expected
margin of 5.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates New York as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 60.4% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Wow. We did not expect to see a 60%+ odds to cover game in the Conference Championships, especially with a spread that is not
entirely rare. There is not much to say about this game -- the Giants are battling a few injuries, but were doing the same when they took down the Cowboys in Dallas last week.
Both teams have some strong momentum going. Your perception of the Packers' home advantage, espeically in what looks to be clear but bitterly cold conditions, is
probably the most important factor here. However, we can't resist letting the numbers do the talking based on the great results the tool has had so far with
60%+ odds to cover games. While the odds to win favor Green Bay pretty strongly (teams with 60%+ odds to win have actually won more than 70% of the time this year), we will
take Giants to cover.
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