Last Week In Review
After getting off to a strong start, with the Cleveland by 10 call (compared to a Vegas spread of -4) clearly the highlight, the performance
of predictions at default settings waned a bit in the later games. Overall, predictions at default settings were 8-5 picking Week 6 straight
up winners at a 50%+ win odds threshold, compared to 9-4 for Vegas spreads and 8-5 for the market consensus. Default predictions
went 5-4 ATS at a 55%+ odds to cover threshold, unfortunately lowlighted by going 2-3 in the higher confidence 60%+ games. (The Carolina-Arizona game
was one we may have stayed away from, however.) See season to date prediction results
for a full review of performance at default settings.
Overall, since its launch before Week 3 of this season, GameZone predictions at
default settinds are 19-15 (55.9%) ATS at 55%+ odds to cover, and 11-8 (57.9%) ATS at 57.5%+ odds to cover. Users that are able to apply successful strategies for
adjusting predictions for injuries/weather/bye weeks, and those who
are willing to invest time in testing the performance of alternative settings for different matchup scenarios,
should have a strong opportunity to succeed in handicapping games. Even with no knowledge of
injuries, weather, etc., the tool is still performing above breakeven long term performance levels (~53% winners) given typical commissions.
Regarding last week's predictions, although the New Orleans blowout of Seattle was the big surprise,
it was the Carolina at Arizona prediction that proved to be the farthest off. However, given the Cardinals' QB woes, that is a game we would have warned people on. (Then, of course,
the Kurt Warner injury just piled on the impossible-to-predict bad luck.) Remember that the predictions tool is not aware
of any injury data, and you need to make judgment calls on adjusting predictions accordingly.
For this reason, however, we are happy to introduce this new predictions summary page this week, which will include
short analysis blurbs calling out specific matchup characteristics that may warrant adjustments to predictions. Many users
have requested a page like this, so we hope you find value in it, and please let us know any suggestions you have
for improving it.
Lastly, if you are enjoying the tool and the analysis, please help us spread the word. Tell your friends, drop a link in your favorite
discussion forums, or better yet, shoot a quick email to your favorite sports media personality. Besides the fact that
we'd very much appreciate it, the more traffic we get, the more ability we'll have to implement enhancements and new features. Enjoy
NFL Week 7!
NFL Week 7 Preview
From a mathematical point of view, we've got a wild week of numbers here with some seriously lopsided predictions.
Fun times indeed! With the exception of a few outliers noted below (read and take note), Week 7 could well provide the
stage for at least one huge upset, with several leading teams facing laggards and probabilities being what they are.
Another thing to consider around this time of year is the impact of bye weeks, which are currently not taken into account by the
tool's situational analysis algorithms.
We've made a few tweaks to the default importance settings of the predictions tool this week, increasing the importance of
the two power ratings (which continue to refine themselves as the season goes on) and recent scoring, and slightly decreasing the
weight of recent margin of victory and distance traveled.
NFL Week 7 Predictions Summary
Below is our Team Rankings GameZone predictions summary for all
NFL Week 7 games. Although we update this page
periodically, predictions can change multiple times per day based on
new information such as shifting NFL betting lines. Click on
"View Predictions" to see the most recent lines
and predictions and to customize factor settings.
 San Francisco 49ers at  New York Giants
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Based on a point spread of New York -9.5, analysis at default settings
shows New York as the heavy favorite to win the game, with win odds of 92.5% and an expected
margin of 15.5 points. Similar games analysis indicates New York as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 59.1% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Your take on the impact of the 49ers' QB situation and their bye in Week 6 should be
applied to the baseline predictions. All else being equal, similar games analysis suggests that it will be
extremely tough for San Francisco to pull off the upset.
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 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at  Detroit Lions
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Based on a point spread of Detroit -1.5, analysis at default settings
shows Tampa Bay as the toss-up favorite to win the game, with win odds of 53.2% and an expected
margin of 2.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates Tampa Bay as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 58.5% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Essentially a toss-up, not counting the impact of a bye week for Detroit. Tampa Bay appears to have some
momentum, so if you think the impact of a bye week is negligible and the spread continues to move in the Bucs' favor, this might be
a decent upset pick.
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 Arizona Cardinals at  Washington Redskins
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Based on a point spread of Washington -7.5, analysis at default settings
shows Washington as the heavy favorite to win the game, with win odds of 94.5% and an expected
margin of 15.8 points. Similar games analysis indicates Washington as the strong favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 76.3% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Santana Moss benching himself aside, unless you believe that the Cardinals' QB situation will somehow
improve their performance to date, this is one of the strongest picks of the week based on similar game analysis.
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 Atlanta Falcons at  New Orleans Saints
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Based on a point spread of New Orleans -9, analysis at default settings
shows New Orleans as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 65.6% and an expected
margin of 3.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates Atlanta as the toss-up favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 54.8% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Not a game that we would play right now, but we'd watch the spread. If you believe
in momentum, we know who you're playing. If you're a contrarian who trusts the numbers, keep an eye on
Atlanta's predicted cover odds if the spread moves in their favor.
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 New England Patriots at  Miami Dolphins
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Based on a point spread of New England -17, analysis at default settings
shows New England as the heavy favorite to win the game, with win odds of 79.9% and an expected
margin of 9.9 points. Similar games analysis indicates New England as the toss-up favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 54.7% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: ALERT ALERT ALERT. With a spread like -17, it becomes very difficult to find a large sample
of historical games that are very similar to this one. Most historical games identified by our
algorithms featured closer spreads, and even in those games, the team like Miami covered a fair amount of times. For
both reasons, we would not touch this game based on quantitative analysis alone.
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 Baltimore Ravens at  Buffalo Bills
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Based on a point spread of Baltimore -3, analysis at default settings
shows Buffalo as the strong favorite to win the game, with win odds of 78.9% and an expected
margin of 4.4 points. Similar games analysis indicates Buffalo as the strong favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 82.2% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Here's a fascinating one. Despite the differences in winning percentage, Buffalo actually has
a higher overall power rating than Baltimore, mostly due to playing much stronger opponents. The Bills are also coming off a bye week. Similar
game analysis has found some very close matches, and nearly all situations favor the Bills. For those who are willing to believe (as
we do) that it is possible for a 1-4 team to be better than a 4-2 team, based on who they've played and how they fared, this game would
qualify as a strong pick.
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 Tennessee Titans at  Houston Texans
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Based on a point spread of Tennessee -1.5, analysis at default settings
shows Tennessee as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 72.3% and an expected
margin of 6.4 points. Similar games analysis indicates Tennessee as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 63.2% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Any call on this game needs to be adjusted for Vince Young's expected status for the Titans, and
the impact you think that will have on their overall performance. A starting QB being out introduces enough uncertainty into
the picture that we'd probably wait and see on this one.
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 Minnesota Vikings at  Dallas Cowboys
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Based on a point spread of Dallas -9.5, analysis at default settings
shows Dallas as the heavy favorite to win the game, with win odds of 86.9% and an expected
margin of 10.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates Dallas as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 61.2% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Assuming Adrian Peterson is not a bionic man, and the Cowboys are as good a team as their
power ratings suggest, Dallas to cover would be the favored play. Momentum believers may want to reconsider, as the Cowboys
are currently 0-1 against bionic men after their recent encounter with T-Brad.
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 Kansas City Chiefs at  Oakland Raiders
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Based on a point spread of Oakland -3, analysis at default settings
shows Kansas City as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 63.2% and an expected
margin of 3.4 points. Similar games analysis indicates Kansas City as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 64.6% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Similar game analysis indicates that Kansas City has as good a shot as any to win this game outright.
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 New York Jets at  Cincinnati Bengals
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Based on a point spread of Cincinnati -6, analysis at default settings
shows Cincinnati as the strong favorite to win the game, with win odds of 84.7% and an expected
margin of 7 points. Similar games analysis indicates Cincinnati as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 65.6% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Teams in the Jets' situation have rarely pulled off the upset in this kind of a scenario. While the
Bengals don't exactly inspire a ton of confidence, the analysis favors them, both to win and cover.
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 Chicago Bears at  Philadelphia Eagles
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Based on a point spread of Philadelphia -5, analysis at default settings
shows Philadelphia as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 75.7% and an expected
margin of 9.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates Philadelphia as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 66.1% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Perhaps due to the relatively rare spread, the identified set of similar games for
this matchup doesn't seem to be as tight as we usually expect. The default analysis obviously favors the
Eagles strongly, but this game probably wouldn't be one of our top few picks of the week.
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 St. Louis Rams at  Seattle Seahawks
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Based on a point spread of Seattle -9, analysis at default settings
shows Seattle as the heavy favorite to win the game, with win odds of 95.1% and an expected
margin of 15.9 points. Similar games analysis indicates Seattle as the strong favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 68.8% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: This game is a tougher one to call than it seems. The numbers indicate Seattle as the strong favorite,
but they are coming off a very poor performance and it's hard to predict what kind of spark Marc Bulger may provide
the Rams if he returns. Not that they've played well with him, of course.
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 Pittsburgh Steelers at  Denver Broncos
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Based on a point spread of Pittsburgh -3.5, analysis at default settings
shows Pittsburgh as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 76.5% and an expected
margin of 7.9 points. Similar games analysis indicates Pittsburgh as the ever-so-slight favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 55.4% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Double bye weeks at play here, and both teams are used to the cold weather. There have certainly
been enough historical cases of a team like Pittsburgh performing well in this situation, so if the line moves in their favor,
the cover odds may begin to look appealing.
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 Indianapolis Colts at  Jacksonville Jaguars
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Based on a point spread of Indianapolis -3, analysis at default settings
shows Indianapolis as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 67.1% and an expected
margin of 6.2 points. Similar games analysis indicates Indianapolis as the favorite
to cover the Vegas point spread with 61% cover odds.
Notes from the Nerds: Can't wait for this one. The Colts' power ratings are so high right now that they have the potential to skew
the similar games algorithms, so we performed some sensitivity analysis. There are some lenses you can apply to this game that turn
the Jaguars into favorites; ignoring power ratings entirely and putting a lot of emphasis on winning percentage, points, and yards
will do so. But we are firm believers in the power of our power ratings (no pun intended), so if forced to choose, we'll stick by the Colts.
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