2007 NFL Week 8 Predictions Summary

Based on a point spread of Cleveland -3, analysis at default settings shows Cleveland as the strong favorite to win the game, with win odds of 79.4% and an expected margin of 7 points. Similar games analysis indicates Cleveland as the slight favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 56.2% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: We've got a pretty rich set of similar historical games here supporting Cleveland as a solid favorite to win. However, given margin of error and the potential impact of Steven Jackson's probable return to action for the Rams, we've got a toss up here regarding which team is expected to cover. Placing higher importance on the Browns' recent win momentum (and Rams' lack thereof) makes little difference in calculated predictions, so the momentum angle doesn't seem to offer up any insights.

Based on a point spread of Indianapolis -6.5, analysis at default settings shows Indianapolis as the heavy favorite to win the game, with win odds of 85.3% and an expected margin of 9.5 points. Similar games analysis indicates Indianapolis as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 61.9% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The historical comps look OK here, but there aren't a ton of examples of visiting teams with a -6.5 spread on them. Health-wise, the Colts appear to be in pretty good shape this week, with both Marvin Harrison and Dwight Freeney expected to play, so the main judgment that must be applied to predictions in this case relates to (a) the Panthers' QB mystery and (b) team rest. Given that Carolina won in Week 6 with Testaverde at the helm, we'd probably refrain from docking their odds for the QB situation, but the Colts are coming off a short week while the Panthers are coming off a bye. How exactly that will affect odds, we can't say, as the number of occurences of such a situation involving teams like these is too small to reach a meaningful conclusion. Probably not enough that we still wouldn't favor Indy as a pick to cover though.

Based on a point spread of Philadelphia -1, analysis at default settings shows Minnesota as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 75.2% and an expected margin of 5.7 points. Similar games analysis indicates Minnesota as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 72.2% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Here's an interesting situation. These two teams are essentially equal in terms of our quantitative power ratings, yet Philly is going on the road as a favorite. We've got some pretty tight historical comparisons that largely favor teams like the Vikings in similar scenarios, but then again, the Vikes are dealing with a starting QB with a broken index finger who may or may not play. (The Eagles, on the other hand, are primarily dealing with thousands of pissed off fans.) As a result, it probably makes sense to take the 72.2% Minnesota odds to cover with a grain of salt, but given that Tavaris Jackson is Tom Brady not, the Vikes remain a solid pick to cover in our book. We love these matchups, where the tool's analysis contradicts what Vegas or the public thinks. Can't wait to see what happens.

Based on a point spread of New York -9.5, analysis at default settings shows New York as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 77.7% and an expected margin of 8.8 points. Similar games analysis indicates New York as the slight favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 57.1% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Ah, the much anticipated London game, otherwise known as Part 2 of the New York Football Giants vs. the Doormats of the League series. Giants coach Tom Coughlin says Miami is a much better team than their record shows, and our analysis suggests that he is absolutely...wrong. Statistically, the Fins are brutal, and losing Ronnie Brown last week doesn't exactly bode well for them. With that said, the whole neutral/overseas site deal puts the wabash on this game for us, as it introduces far too much uncertainty into calculated predictions. So we'd lay off this one and get a chuckle reading about British betting on the NFL instead. By the way, our Away Power Ratings show that New York has performed far better on the road than Miami this year. Just a warning before you pick this game as your strategic upset pick in your weekly pick'em pool.

Based on a point spread of Chicago -5, analysis at default settings shows Chicago as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 71.5% and an expected margin of 6.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates Chicago as the slight favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 57.6% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The tool has identified a lot of historical scenarios with close spreads, but five point spreads are not the most common. The predicted cover odds calculations for this matchup are also more sensitive than usual to the Predictive Power Rating factor. Consequently, we wouldn't consider Chicago more than a very slight favorite to cover.

Based on a point spread of Tennessee -7.5, analysis at default settings shows Tennessee as the dominant favorite to win the game, with win odds of 95.8% and an expected margin of 14.1 points. Similar games analysis indicates Tennessee as the strong favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 72% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Wow. Very tight similar historical situations, low variability of prediction results when you adjust factor importance settings, and #1 QB Vince Young likely returning for the Titans. As hard as it is for us to believe that any NFL team could have 95%+ odds to win (even against a bad team), our love affair with data means that this matchup qualifies as one of the top picks of the week. It's even more juicy because most consensus picks to cover favor Oakland.

Based on a point spread of Pittsburgh -3.5, analysis at default settings shows Pittsburgh as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 73.1% and an expected margin of 8 points. Similar games analysis indicates Pittsburgh as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 64.1% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Very interesting that the #1 similar historical scenario is the Eagles winning and covering a -4 spread on the road against the Jets in Week 6. Both of these teams are struggling of late, but the Steelers' power ratings remain meaningfully higher than those of the Bengals. Unless you think the tough loss at Denver last week or a second straight road game will significantly affect Big Ben and crew's performance, Pittsburgh remains the play according to the data.

Based on a point spread of New York -3, analysis at default settings shows Buffalo as the toss-up favorite to win the game, with win odds of 51.6% and an expected margin of 0.9 points. Similar games analysis indicates Buffalo as the ever-so-slight favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 55% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: As much as our Stanford allegiances have us dreaming about Trent Edwards taking the streaking Bills all the way to the Super Bowl, the fact is that Buffalo's power ratings are not that much better than the Jets, and the prediction tool demonstrates that their recent win momentum has little impact in this particular matchup scenario. (Just adjust the Winning Percentage importance slider and see what happens.) In conclusion: no strong conclusion. We'd pass on this one.

Based on a point spread of Tampa Bay -3, analysis at default settings shows Jacksonville as the slight favorite to win the game, with win odds of 57.3% and an expected margin of 0.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates Jacksonville as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 60.9% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Your final call on this game should depend largely on assessing the likely impact of the Jags' QB situation. Injuries aside, the default settings analysis provides good support for Jacksonville as a decent pick to cover, but the fact is that QB Quinn Gray is making his first career NFL start this week, and he didn't look so hot against the Colts last week. Although Tampa Bay is a little banged up at receiver, given the situation, we see this game as a toss-up.

Based on a point spread of San Diego -10, analysis at default settings shows San Diego as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 59% and an expected margin of 4.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates Houston as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 58.9% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The Chargers have momentum on their side, but even so, situations like these tend to favor teams like Houston to cover. Again, interesting to note that the most similar historical situation was last week's game between the Bears and the Eagles, where the Bears (who were 1-2 in their last 3 games) not only covered a +6 spread but beat the Eagles (who were 2-1 in their last three) straight up in Philly. Houston's QB situation warrants some judgment, as does the final decision of stadium, as does the effect of San Diego being relocated this week for practice on account of the wildfires. If the game is played at Qualcomm Stadium, we'd see the Texans as slight favorites to cover; if it is played outside Qualcomm Stadium, we'd tend to favor the Texans more strongly.

Based on a point spread of New England -16, analysis at default settings shows New England as the dominant favorite to win the game, with win odds of 93.8% and an expected margin of 14.5 points. Similar games analysis indicates New England as the slight favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 57% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Just like last week, those wacky Patriots spreads mean that we can't issue a as high a degree of confidence in the tool's calculated predictions as we would like. The similar games, most of which feature spreads in the -12 range, favor the Pats as the slight favorite to cover, but our official position is that the integrity of the analysis isn't strong enough for us to issue a recommendation on this game. Now watch, the Patriots will probably go win by 40. (By the way, please read the "Help & Instructions" section of the predictions tool if you are curious how the Patriots can still have >50% cover odds if their expected win margin is less than the Vegas spread.)

Based on a point spread of New Orleans -3, analysis at default settings shows New Orleans as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 68.4% and an expected margin of 5 points. Similar games analysis indicates San Francisco as the toss-up favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 54.3% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The Saints hold the edge from both the statistical and momentum angles here, but not enough of an edge to favor them to cover in this scenario. However, if you believe that Alex Smith's return will have a very strong positive impact on the Niners' performance, Niners to cover may be a decent pick. We'd probably lay off this one. (Again, see the "Help & Instructions" section of the predictions tool for more detail on the interrelation of predicted win margin and odds to cover.)

Based on a point spread of Denver -3, analysis at default settings shows Green Bay as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 69.3% and an expected margin of 5.5 points. Similar games analysis indicates Green Bay as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 68.1% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: It's rare for a team with as significant a power ratings advantage as the Packers have against the Broncos to get an underdog spread on the road; see the Browns-Bills game this week for a counter-example. Decreasing the importance of power ratings in the tool negatively impacts Green Bay's win odds, but still supports them as a solid favorite to cover a +3 spread. Similar situations are tight enough that we'd consider Packers to cover a strong pick, unless you think that Denver's emotional high after last week's game and Green Bay's bye week will both significantly help the Broncos.