2007 NFL Week 9 Predictions Summary

Based on a point spread of Atlanta -3, analysis at default settings shows Atlanta as the heavy favorite to win the game, with win odds of 88.2% and an expected margin of 10.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates Atlanta as the strong favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 79.3% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The Falcons have much stronger power ratings, and the situational analysis overwhelmingly favors them. On top of that, Alex Smith and Frank Gore are both struggling. But with backup Joey Harrington starting at QB, no decent replacement if he gets injured, and reports of mutiny in the Atlanta locker room, there's probably some risk to be factored into this pick. How much is difficult to tell. Falcons are also coming off a bye.

Based on a point spread of Cincinnati -1, analysis at default settings shows Buffalo as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 64.3% and an expected margin of 3.4 points. Similar games analysis indicates Buffalo as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 67.2% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The Bengals defense looks shaky. On the other hand, the Bills' win over the Jets last week can hardly be considered convincing, and former underperforming starter J.P. Losman will be back at QB. Quarterback situation aside, the Bills have a slight edge in power ratings, a signficant edge on defense, and they're at home.

Based on a point spread of Detroit -3, analysis at default settings shows Detroit as the solid favorite to win the game, with win odds of 80.6% and an expected margin of 7.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates Detroit as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 70.5% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The Lions are streaking, the Broncos are coming off an emotional overtime loss and a short week, and are a bit banged up. Usually, we'd expect a matchup like this to be one of The Sports Guy's famous "obvious games," where the lines are set so that it looks idiotic not to pick the Lions and then everyone loses. Surprisingly, at Detroit -3, it's hard to find a meaningful situational angle that doesn't favor the Lions here. So until we find out something that we don't know but should...

Based on a point spread of Tampa Bay -3.5, analysis at default settings shows Tampa Bay as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 90.2% and an expected margin of 10.7 points. Similar games analysis indicates Tampa Bay as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 80.1% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The Bucs are suffering through a 2-game skid, coach Gruden is grumbling about their turnover ratio, and the Cardinals are coming off a bye week after nearly knocking off the Redskins. Yet one of the hardest parts of objectively analyzing games is learning not to overemphasize very recent performance, which could be an aberration. Historically similar situations and power ratings strongly favor Tampa Bay.

Based on a point spread of San Diego -7, analysis at default settings shows San Diego as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 56.1% and an expected margin of 2.4 points. Similar games analysis indicates Minnesota as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 62.1% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The Chargers are on a run-happy roll, and now roll into Minnesota to take on one of the league's better run defenses. The main uncertainty for the Vikes lies in their unstable and far-from-fear-inspiring platoon of banged up and underperforming QBs. Still, similar situations favor the Vikings to cover such a favorable spread, and it's not like they ever had a star starting QB anyway. In fact, a look at the similar games list shows the team like Minnesota winning straight-up a substantial amount of times. Your belief in momentum will probably color your play here.

Based on a point spread of New Orleans -3.5, analysis at default settings shows Jacksonville as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 79.8% and an expected margin of 8.2 points. Similar games analysis indicates Jacksonville as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 80.5% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Wow. This is a fascinating matchup, one that makes math dorks like us veritably quiver with excitement. At default settings (which heavily weight power rankings), Jacksonville is the runaway favorite in this game. But the predictions are incredibly sensitive to season-to-date power rankings; play with the first two sliders and watch the impact on predictions. Decrease the importance of season power ratings, and all of a sudden the momentum-rich Saints become the favorite to win and cover. A swing of that magnitude is very rare, and what it means is that despite the bold calls at default settings, the tool's predictions for this game carry a high amount of uncertainty attached. Warning signs everywhere, Batman!

Based on a point spread of Kansas City -2, analysis at default settings shows Green Bay as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 72.2% and an expected margin of 5.6 points. Similar games analysis indicates Green Bay as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 72.2% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The fact that Brett Favre is 0-3 vs. the Chiefs over his 11 year career means absolutely nothing. That's a perfect example of a meaningless statistic, based on an insignificant sample size, that the media has recognized they can use to tell a story. Fun story, just don't drink the Kool Aid and color a decision based on that fact. These teams are very close in most basic statistical categories, and it will likely be a hard fought game. But Green Bay has a significant power ratings advantage and a spread in their favor.

Based on a point spread of Tennessee -4, analysis at default settings shows Tenneessee as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 93.7% and an expected margin of 11.7 points. Similar games analysis indicates Tennessee as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 79.6% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: I think we're still looking for a sign, any sign, to help us believe that this game isn't going to be a disgusting ugly mess, especially offensively. Tennessee still has the advantage to win and cover pretty much any way you cut the analysis, though, and Mr. David Carr doesn't really provide too many reasons to rethink that position. Given the Titans' recent offensive woes and Vince Young still probably not being 100%, we'd probably expect a lower win margin than 11 points though.

Based on a point spread of Washington -3.5, analysis at default settings shows Washington as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 78.3% and an expected margin of 8.4 points. Similar games analysis indicates Washington as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 69.4% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: The Redskins sucked against the Patriots away, the Jets sucked against the Bills at home. The former situation sucks a lot, lot less. Unless you think Kellen Clemens is the second coming of Peyton Manning, the tool's angles favor the Redskins both to win and cover, unless you completely ignore power ratings, which results in a toss-up prediction. How about this call by Coach Eric Mangini on Kellen Clemens, after KC went 5-for-12 for 67 yards and two interceptions in relief of Chad Pennington last week: "I made this decision not based on singling out Chad ... but based on the fact that I think Kellen has earned this opportunity." One interception every six passes and you're in!

Based on a point spread of Cleveland -1.5, analysis at default settings shows Cleveland as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 63.1% and an expected margin of 3.3 points. Similar games analysis indicates Cleveland as the toss-up favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 53.3% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Not much to say here. No major injuries to deal with, the teams are close statistically, and there aren't very many historical examples of featuring a 1.5 spread to draw from. Conclusion: based on the tool's analysis, the spread looks efficient for this game.

Based on a point spread of New England -6, analysis at default settings shows New England as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 81.7% and an expected margin of 8.7 points. Similar games analysis indicates New England as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 67.5% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: This game doesn't need any more hype than it's already gotten, so we'll stick to the facts. New England's power ratings are off the charts, which can make it more difficult to find solid historical situation comparisons. Nevertheless, even if we discount the importance of power ratings, and place additional emphasis on the Colts' defensive prowess, the tool's calculations still favor the Pats to win and cover (although with less favorable odds).

Based on a point spread of Oakland -3, analysis at default settings shows Houston as the nail-biter favorite to win the game, with win odds of 57.1% and an expected margin of 0.7 points. Similar games analysis indicates Houston as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 63.1% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Another prime candidate for Ugly Game of the Week. At default settings, the tool shows the Texans as favorites to cover, but their QB situation is uncertain (Rosenfels has not performed well in the past as a starter, though you can't make conjectures based on two games) and the predictions are sensitive to power ratings. Oakland is making a QB change too. All told, we'd probably lay off this one.

Based on a point spread of Dallas -3, analysis at default settings shows Dallas as the favorite to win the game, with win odds of 73.7% and an expected margin of 6.5 points. Similar games analysis indicates Dallas as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 61.8% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Philly's riding high after last week, but how much does one big game by Donovan McNabb matter? The Cowboys, who are coming off a bye, also won their last game, and now take their significant power ratings advantage up against an Eagles defense that has been strong lately. Should be a decent game, but the nearly all the tool's angles show Dallas as the favorite to win and a moderate favorite to cover.

Based on a point spread of Pittsburgh -9.5, analysis at default settings shows Pittsburgh as the heavy favorite to win the game, with win odds of 90.6% and an expected margin of 14.5 points. Similar games analysis indicates Pittsburgh as the favorite to cover the Vegas point spread with 67.6% cover odds.

Notes from the Nerds: Some interesting stuff going on here. The bye week has nursed a lot of banged up Baltimore starters back to health (including QB Steve McNair), and the Ravens dominated Big Steel last year. Yet Pittsburgh hasn't lost a Monday Night Football game in 16 years. Cutesy facts aside, the main difference in this matchup regards power ratings, which indicate that the Ravens are a significantly worse team than their record shows.