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Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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By ranking
Last Updated Wed Apr 30 18:36:44 CDT 2008


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 0.5587


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Texas (16-1)0.64111-14-04-0
7. Kansas (18-0)0.63640-04-03-0
28. Texas Tech (13-2)0.59581-02-22-0
41. Kansas St (14-2)0.58311-11-03-1
48. Oklahoma St (12-3)0.57271-11-22-0
58. Oklahoma (14-3)0.56410-13-13-1
72. Texas A&M (15-4)0.54491-11-12-2
80. Missouri (13-4)0.53881-12-10-2
82. Baylor (11-4)0.53780-21-22-0
95. Nebraska (16-3)0.52930-12-13-0
155. Iowa St (11-6)0.48970-20-22-0
181. Colorado (5-9)0.47080-21-21-3


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.5553


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Tennessee (15-0)0.67301-03-04-0
2. Vanderbilt (19-0)0.66311-03-06-0
16. Arkansas (15-1)0.61611-02-02-0
29. Mississippi (16-2)0.59431-03-04-0
46. Mississippi St (12-3)0.57560-22-12-0
64. Kentucky (14-4)0.56002-22-02-1
77. Alabama (13-5)0.54201-22-10-2
85. Florida (17-4)0.53611-11-13-1
127. Georgia (10-5)0.50630-21-11-2
165. LSU (9-6)0.48550-11-21-1
193. South Carolina (8-9)0.46150-20-31-2
212. Auburn (8-7)0.44980-11-20-2


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.5529


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Duke (15-1)0.63702-11-03-0
14. North Carolina (14-2)0.61822-10-05-1
34. Miami Fla (13-2)0.58902-10-02-1
35. Clemson (14-2)0.58710-12-03-1
42. Virginia Tech (14-3)0.58270-11-23-0
57. Wake Forest (15-2)0.56481-02-02-2
88. Florida St (13-5)0.53541-21-00-1
106. Maryland (13-6)0.51790-20-01-3
128. North Carolina St (10-6)0.50601-31-01-2
129. Boston College (11-8)0.50570-21-11-3
131. Virginia (13-7)0.50520-30-01-4
162. Georgia Tech (6-7)0.48621-20-11-2


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 0.5489


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Georgetown (16-0)0.65512-02-02-0
8. Notre Dame (17-0)0.62904-00-01-0
15. Connecticut (16-1)0.61694-01-01-0
20. Louisville (15-2)0.61053-02-12-0
38. Pittsburgh (15-2)0.58432-11-01-0
43. West Virginia (12-2)0.58142-10-02-0
47. Marquette (15-2)0.57551-21-01-0
52. Syracuse (16-6)0.57052-20-34-1
60. Villanova (12-3)0.56263-10-10-1
120. Providence (10-5)0.50941-30-11-0
132. Seton Hall (11-6)0.50451-20-10-1
147. Cincinnati (10-7)0.49561-31-02-1
169. St Johns (8-8)0.48370-40-10-1
173. South Florida (7-8)0.47700-41-11-1
180. DePaul (7-8)0.47110-41-10-1
206. Rutgers (8-10)0.45470-41-10-0


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 0.5458


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
25. Southern Ill (13-3)0.59921-13-23-0
27. Illinois St (15-2)0.59710-11-14-0
33. Drake (13-1)0.58920-02-01-1
39. Missouri St (13-2)0.58331-00-22-0
40. Creighton (15-2)0.58310-10-15-0
68. Indiana St (11-2)0.55300-12-02-0
116. Bradley (13-6)0.51030-22-02-2
151. Northern Iowa (10-6)0.49170-12-11-2
166. Wichita St (8-7)0.48530-11-21-2
186. Evansville (6-8)0.46620-21-11-2


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 0.5319


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. Michigan St (17-0)0.62880-03-00-0
30. Indiana (17-2)0.59421-22-02-0
31. Ohio St (17-3)0.59351-22-13-0
36. Wisconsin (16-2)0.58611-11-12-0
45. Purdue (16-1)0.57782-01-00-0
91. Penn St (13-4)0.53401-11-21-0
137. Minnesota (12-5)0.50030-21-10-1
177. Illinois (7-8)0.47250-20-30-1
183. Michigan (6-9)0.46820-21-20-0
194. Iowa (10-8)0.46081-21-20-0
234. Northwestern (4-11)0.43460-30-30-0


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 0.5299


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
22. Stanford (16-1)0.60181-12-04-0
32. UCLA (15-2)0.58942-11-14-0
59. Oregon (12-3)0.56351-21-12-0
83. Arizona St (15-5)0.53772-22-02-2
90. USC (10-5)0.53451-31-13-0
92. Arizona (10-6)0.53331-21-13-2
96. Washington St (9-4)0.52810-21-13-1
140. Washington (12-7)0.49851-31-13-3
144. California (11-8)0.49620-31-12-3
267. Oregon St (3-12)0.41570-30-20-3


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 0.5190


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Memphis (20-1)0.65191-13-05-0
11. Uab (14-1)0.62160-10-02-0
51. Tulsa (18-2)0.57050-10-06-0
61. Houston (17-2)0.56130-10-13-0
89. Marshall (11-4)0.53530-11-02-0
89. Marshall (11-4)0.53530-11-02-0
103. Texas El Paso (13-3)0.52040-00-12-2
117. Central Florida (12-4)0.51030-10-22-1
130. SO Mississippi (7-3)0.50540-11-00-0
176. Tulane (9-6)0.47300-10-10-1
245. East Carolina (7-9)0.42740-10-01-1
261. SMU (6-10)0.42060-10-10-3
270. Rice (1-12)0.41420-20-10-1


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 0.5172


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
13. BYU (16-0)0.61831-00-03-0
24. UNLV (19-2)0.60000-12-15-0
70. New Mexico (16-2)0.55021-00-13-1
79. San Diego St (10-3)0.54010-11-02-1
114. Utah (10-4)0.51231-00-12-1
146. TCU (12-4)0.49590-10-23-0
157. Air Force (10-4)0.48891-00-11-2
213. Wyoming (6-6)0.44950-10-11-2
290. Colorado St (2-9)0.39980-10-10-3


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 0.5160


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
17. Xavier (16-1)0.61410-12-02-0
26. Dayton (15-3)0.59751-10-17-0
50. Charlotte (13-3)0.57081-10-03-1
53. Massachusetts (13-3)0.56850-10-05-1
65. Temple (10-4)0.55551-11-13-1
104. Rhode Island (11-4)0.52010-11-10-2
119. Geo Washington (8-4)0.50950-11-11-1
123. St Louis (11-5)0.50740-11-13-2
134. St Josephs (8-5)0.50391-02-10-1
149. Duquesne (11-4)0.49260-10-11-0
150. Richmond (9-6)0.49180-01-13-1
220. Fordham (7-7)0.44560-00-11-2
252. La Salle (5-7)0.42490-01-00-4
255. St Bonaventure (5-8)0.42240-00-10-3


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.5093


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
18. Kent (16-0)0.61280-00-05-0
19. Ohio (13-1)0.61071-00-03-1
66. Western Mich (11-1)0.55381-00-03-0
75. Miami Ohio (9-3)0.54251-10-11-1
98. Toledo (9-3)0.52371-10-01-0
102. Akron (13-3)0.52060-10-03-1
145. Central Mich (7-3)0.49610-10-02-0
171. Bowling Green (8-5)0.47871-00-12-2
174. Eastern Mich (10-4)0.47660-11-01-0
233. Buffalo (7-6)0.43730-10-00-3
237. Ball St (5-10)0.43130-20-10-3
246. Northern Ill (5-7)0.42700-00-00-3


HORIZON LEAGUE AVERAGE = 0.5034


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
12. Butler (14-1)0.61850-11-05-0
78. Cleveland St (10-3)0.54171-00-11-1
84. Illinois Chi (11-2)0.53640-10-03-1
110. Wisc Green Bay (11-3)0.51680-10-03-0
113. Wright St (13-3)0.51241-00-01-3
184. Wisc Milwaukee (8-8)0.46800-30-02-2
201. Youngstown St (4-7)0.45810-20-00-3
207. Loyola Chi (6-6)0.45360-10-02-2
250. Detroit (5-10)0.42541-10-00-3


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 0.4878


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
21. George Mason (13-1)0.60940-01-02-0
101. VA Commonwealth (12-2)0.52280-00-10-0
107. NC Wilmington (12-3)0.51740-00-01-1
108. Old Dominion (13-4)0.51720-10-02-1
158. Towson (11-4)0.48800-00-00-1
161. Northeastern (7-3)0.48670-00-01-1
175. James Madison (9-5)0.47430-00-02-1
185. Delaware (7-5)0.46730-00-01-1
208. William & Mary (7-5)0.45270-00-00-1
211. Hofstra (8-5)0.45060-00-01-2
232. Drexel (7-9)0.43810-00-10-3
241. Georgia St (6-8)0.42930-00-11-2


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 0.4852


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
44. South Alabama (15-1)0.58040-02-00-0
67. Western KY (12-1)0.55320-00-11-0
86. North Texas (13-2)0.53570-01-11-0
126. Middle Tenn St (10-6)0.50660-11-11-1
142. Arkansas Lr (11-3)0.49780-00-11-0
172. Denver (9-3)0.47810-00-00-0
191. Troy St (7-6)0.46290-00-20-0
216. Ul Lafayette (7-6)0.44830-00-20-0
229. Florida Intl (7-9)0.44080-00-30-1
256. New Orleans (6-7)0.42220-00-20-0
278. Arkansas St (7-6)0.41160-00-00-0


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 0.4810


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
23. Iupui (13-0)0.60160-01-01-0
49. Oral Roberts (11-1)0.57210-00-12-0
141. Valparaiso (11-4)0.49810-10-02-1
190. Oakland (8-4)0.46320-00-01-1
224. Southern Utah (7-6)0.44470-00-00-4
226. Western Ill (8-4)0.44260-00-00-2
275. Mo Kansas City (7-7)0.41310-00-00-2
277. Centenary (5-6)0.41240-00-02-1


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.4749


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
74. Marist (10-2)0.54420-00-01-1
87. Loyola MD (11-2)0.53550-00-02-0
100. Siena (13-4)0.52331-00-00-1
115. Niagara (10-2)0.51170-00-00-1
124. Rider (11-2)0.50710-00-00-1
199. Iona (7-5)0.45880-00-00-1
205. Fairfield (7-6)0.45470-00-00-2
280. Canisius (5-9)0.40950-10-00-1
285. St Peters (5-9)0.40520-00-00-1
293. Manhattan (6-8)0.39860-00-01-0


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 0.4735


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
94. UC Irvine (11-2)0.52930-00-02-2
118. CS Fullerton (10-3)0.50980-00-01-2
133. UC Santa Barbara (10-3)0.50401-00-01-0
152. CS Northridge (9-3)0.49140-00-00-2
163. Pacific (10-3)0.48610-00-02-1
222. Cal Poly (6-5)0.44500-00-01-2
253. UC Riverside (7-5)0.42410-00-00-2
295. Long Beach St (5-8)0.39800-00-10-2


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.4675


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
37. St Marys CA (14-1)0.58441-11-03-0
54. Gonzaga (13-1)0.56570-11-02-0
122. San Diego (12-5)0.50750-13-10-2
238. Santa Clara (6-6)0.43100-00-20-1
243. San Francisco (6-7)0.42820-00-20-2
263. Loyola Marymnt (2-11)0.41940-00-30-4
271. Portland (4-8)0.41390-00-30-3
303. Pepperdine (3-6)0.39010-00-20-1


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.4666


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Utah St (16-0)0.62600-00-05-0
99. Nevada (12-3)0.52360-00-02-3
136. New Mexico St (15-4)0.50180-00-04-2
168. Boise St (10-5)0.48390-11-02-2
200. Fresno St (10-6)0.45860-00-10-4
260. Hawaii (9-9)0.42070-00-01-5
279. San Jose St (7-6)0.40970-00-02-1
302. Idaho (5-7)0.39100-00-00-3
311. Louisiana Tech (5-9)0.38370-00-00-3


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 0.4642


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
69. Davidson (11-2)0.55170-20-00-0
81. Chattanooga (11-3)0.53860-20-00-1
121. Geo Southern (9-2)0.50910-10-00-0
143. NC Greensboro (10-3)0.49730-20-00-0
182. Appalachian St (8-4)0.46960-10-00-0
198. Coll Of Charltn (9-4)0.45950-10-00-0
227. Elon (7-5)0.44240-10-00-0
251. Wofford (5-5)0.42500-10-00-0
257. Furman (5-6)0.42140-10-00-0
264. Westrn Carolina (7-6)0.41770-10-00-0
317. The Citadel (2-10)0.37390-10-10-0


BIGSOUTH AVERAGE = 0.4526


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
105. High Point (9-1)0.51820-00-00-0
148. Winthrop (10-3)0.49540-10-01-0
164. Liberty (10-2)0.48560-00-00-0
170. NC Asheville (12-3)0.47900-00-00-0
214. Coast Carolina (8-3)0.44930-00-00-0
268. Radford (6-5)0.41450-10-00-0
286. Charleston Sou (5-6)0.40470-00-00-0
316. VMI (4-6)0.37460-00-00-0


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 0.4520


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
97. Portland St (9-1)0.52640-00-00-0
111. Weber St (11-2)0.51660-00-02-1
139. Northrn Arizona (11-3)0.49900-11-00-1
195. Montana St (9-3)0.46030-00-01-1
209. Idaho St (6-5)0.45170-10-00-2
247. Eastern Wash (7-5)0.42700-00-01-1
308. Montana (5-6)0.38870-00-00-2
334. Sacramento St (2-9)0.34670-00-00-1


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 0.4510


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
135. American (11-4)0.50260-00-00-1
187. Bucknell (7-6)0.46490-00-02-1
202. Holy Cross (8-6)0.45740-00-11-1
203. Lafayette (8-5)0.45710-00-01-1
219. Lehigh (11-4)0.44600-00-00-1
231. Colgate (9-5)0.43900-00-00-1
242. Navy (8-6)0.42840-00-01-0
276. Army (7-7)0.41290-00-00-1


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 0.4492


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
73. Stephen Austin (10-1)0.54460-00-01-0
93. Sam Houston (10-2)0.53040-00-02-0
109. Lamar (10-2)0.51710-00-01-1
160. Texas Arlington (10-3)0.48710-00-00-2
197. Northwestern St (6-4)0.45960-00-00-1
235. Tex San Antonio (6-5)0.43240-00-00-2
239. SE Louisiana (7-4)0.42970-00-00-1
254. McNeese St (5-4)0.42300-00-00-1
273. Nicholls St (5-5)0.41350-00-01-0
283. Central Arkansas (6-5)0.40690-00-00-1
287. Ul Monroe (3-7)0.40420-00-20-0
289. Texas A&M-CC (5-9)0.40150-00-11-1
305. Texas St (4-7)0.38940-00-01-1


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 0.4411


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
63. Cornell (11-1)0.56050-00-01-0
154. Brown (9-3)0.49000-00-01-2
225. Yale (7-5)0.44290-00-00-1
258. Harvard (7-6)0.42080-00-00-1
269. Pennsylvania (9-8)0.41430-10-00-2
274. Columbia (6-6)0.41310-00-00-2
284. Princeton (5-7)0.40550-00-00-1
314. Dartmouth (5-6)0.38140-00-00-1


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 0.4281


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
76. Belmont (10-1)0.54200-00-00-1
153. East Tenn St (10-2)0.49000-00-00-1
179. Lipscomb (8-3)0.47120-00-00-1
188. Fla Atlantic (11-4)0.46410-00-20-0
189. Stetson (10-2)0.46390-00-00-1
204. Jacksonville (8-2)0.45530-00-00-0
217. Gardner-Webb (8-3)0.44810-00-00-1
272. Kennesaw St (7-5)0.41350-00-01-0
299. SC Upstate (3-5)0.39520-00-00-1
304. Campbell (6-8)0.38990-00-01-0
318. Fla Gulf Coast (4-7)0.36870-10-00-0
328. Mercer (5-7)0.35670-00-00-1
341. North Florida (2-9)0.30610-00-00-0


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.4275


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
56. Morgan St (12-0)0.56490-00-01-0
112. Hampton (11-2)0.51490-00-01-0
138. Norfolk St (9-1)0.49950-00-00-0
244. NO Carolina A&T (6-3)0.42790-00-00-0
265. Florida A&M (7-3)0.41720-00-00-0
266. Delaware St (5-3)0.41710-00-00-0
288. Howard (5-5)0.40170-00-00-0
292. SO Carolina St (7-5)0.39890-00-00-0
320. Coppin St (5-5)0.36660-00-00-0
332. MD Eastrn Shore (4-7)0.34740-00-00-0
333. Bethune Cookman (4-8)0.34710-00-00-0


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 0.4272


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
71. Umbc (12-1)0.54900-00-00-0
156. Hartford (10-3)0.48890-00-01-0
210. Vermont (8-4)0.45080-00-00-1
223. Albany NY (8-5)0.44480-00-00-2
248. Binghamton (9-6)0.42680-00-01-0
281. Boston U (7-6)0.40860-00-00-2
313. New Hampshire (5-9)0.38180-00-00-1
322. Stony Brook (4-9)0.36540-00-00-2
339. Maine (2-10)0.32850-00-00-1


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.4181


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
159. Wagner (13-3)0.48770-00-00-0
192. Robert Morris (11-4)0.46230-00-00-0
215. Central Conn (8-6)0.44900-00-01-0
221. Mt St Marys (8-7)0.44530-00-00-1
230. Liu Brooklyn (9-5)0.43940-00-00-0
312. St Francis NY (4-10)0.38360-00-00-1
319. Fair Dickinson (4-8)0.36790-00-00-0
323. Monmouth NJ (2-11)0.36470-00-00-0
324. St Francis PA (2-12)0.36260-00-00-1


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 0.4170


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
55. Austin Peay (13-1)0.56540-00-01-1
125. Murray St (12-2)0.50670-00-01-0
196. Morehead St (9-3)0.46010-00-00-1
282. Tennessee St (6-5)0.40710-00-01-1
298. Eastern KY (7-7)0.39600-00-10-1
307. Tenn Martin (6-6)0.38900-00-00-1
309. Tennessee Tech (5-6)0.38820-00-00-1
310. Samford (5-7)0.38630-00-01-1
315. SE Missouri St (5-6)0.37700-00-01-0
326. Eastern Ill (4-8)0.35730-00-00-1
329. Jacksonville St (4-9)0.35410-00-00-1


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 0.4089


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
62. Presbyterian (2-0)0.56090-00-00-0
167. North Dakota St (9-2)0.48490-00-01-1
178. IPFW (8-3)0.47130-00-00-3
236. Utah Valley St (7-3)0.43130-00-00-2
249. Northern Colorado (7-4)0.42550-00-00-1
259. Savannah St (5-3)0.42080-00-00-0
262. Chicago St (4-4)0.42000-00-00-2
291. South Dakota St (6-8)0.39930-00-00-2
301. UC Davis (6-7)0.39170-00-01-2
306. Winston-Salem (7-5)0.38920-00-00-0
321. Longwood (4-5)0.36550-00-00-0
327. NC Central (1-2)0.35680-00-00-0
331. CSU Bakersfield (4-10)0.34800-00-00-2
337. NJIT (0-12)0.33600-00-00-2
338. TX Pan American (3-3)0.33180-00-00-0


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.3751


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
218. Alabama St (8-2)0.44610-00-00-0
294. Alabama A&M (6-3)0.39820-00-00-0
296. Southern (6-4)0.39770-00-10-0
297. Jackson St (7-5)0.39640-00-00-1
300. Miss Valley St (6-4)0.39350-00-00-0
325. Texas Southern (4-7)0.35850-00-00-1
330. Alcorn St (4-5)0.35000-00-00-0
335. Grambling (4-5)0.34450-00-00-0
336. Prairie View (4-7)0.33880-00-00-0
340. Ark Pine Bluff (4-6)0.32700-00-00-0
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