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Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Upward Stability

By ranking
Last Updated Wed Apr 30 18:36:44 CDT 2008

Home Court Advantage = 3.6

COLONIAL AVERAGE = 3.332


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Delaware (14-17)3.709
7. Drexel (12-20)3.692
9. Towson (13-18)3.615
17. William & Mary (15-16)3.460
24. Northeastern (14-17)3.385
29. James Madison (13-17)3.369
30. Hofstra (12-18)3.363
32. Georgia St (9-21)3.356
46. Old Dominion (18-16)3.302
80. NC Wilmington (20-13)3.196
127. George Mason (23-11)3.037
292. VA Commonwealth (24-8)2.498


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 3.243


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Bradley (21-17)4.234
4. Southern Ill (18-15)3.740
18. Wichita St (11-20)3.453
21. Missouri St (16-16)3.413
31. Northern Iowa (17-14)3.360
97. Indiana St (14-16)3.150
100. Creighton (21-11)3.145
110. Illinois St (24-10)3.112
219. Evansville (8-21)2.802
323. Drake (26-5)2.027


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 3.205


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Bucknell (12-19)3.750
49. Army (14-16)3.285
54. Lafayette (15-15)3.279
71. Holy Cross (15-14)3.226
92. Colgate (18-14)3.168
101. Navy (16-14)3.144
155. Lehigh (14-15)2.972
212. American (21-12)2.817


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.142


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Georgia (16-17)3.701
10. Alabama (17-16)3.549
27. Mississippi (24-11)3.372
34. South Carolina (14-18)3.344
47. Florida (24-12)3.296
51. LSU (12-18)3.285
63. Arkansas (23-12)3.253
137. Mississippi St (23-11)3.009
146. Kentucky (18-13)2.991
179. Vanderbilt (26-8)2.912
226. Auburn (14-16)2.789
317. Tennessee (30-5)2.201


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 3.142


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Charlotte (20-14)3.635
12. St Josephs (21-13)3.531
13. Massachusetts (25-11)3.520
14. La Salle (14-17)3.509
20. Temple (21-13)3.417
48. Rhode Island (21-12)3.290
64. Richmond (16-15)3.247
65. Dayton (23-11)3.245
95. St Louis (15-15)3.158
225. Fordham (11-17)2.789
236. St Bonaventure (8-22)2.755
251. Duquesne (17-13)2.694
265. Geo Washington (9-17)2.627
279. Xavier (30-7)2.564


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.121


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. Miami Ohio (17-16)3.547
36. Central Mich (13-16)3.340
40. Bowling Green (13-17)3.331
62. Eastern Mich (14-17)3.256
70. Ohio (20-13)3.228
72. Akron (24-11)3.226
89. Toledo (11-19)3.170
91. Ball St (6-24)3.169
143. Western Mich (20-12)3.003
150. Buffalo (9-20)2.983
222. Northern Ill (6-22)2.794
302. Kent (28-7)2.411


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.048


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
28. Marist (18-14)3.371
56. Manhattan (12-19)3.269
102. Fairfield (14-16)3.132
106. Rider (23-11)3.119
112. Iona (12-20)3.108
153. St Peters (6-24)2.977
182. Loyola MD (19-14)2.900
189. Canisius (6-25)2.889
199. Niagara (19-10)2.864
201. Siena (23-11)2.857


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 2.998


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
43. Hartford (18-16)3.323
50. Boston U (14-17)3.285
74. Binghamton (14-16)3.216
88. New Hampshire (8-20)3.171
104. Vermont (16-15)3.121
109. Albany NY (15-15)3.113
194. Stony Brook (7-23)2.880
290. Maine (6-23)2.514
306. Umbc (23-9)2.363


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 2.994


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
84. Tennessee St (13-17)3.187
93. Tennessee Tech (11-19)3.166
120. Samford (12-16)3.065
132. Tenn Martin (15-16)3.029
140. SE Missouri St (10-19)3.006
145. Jacksonville St (5-22)2.991
151. Eastern Ill (6-22)2.979
156. Eastern KY (12-16)2.969
164. Murray St (16-13)2.943
185. Morehead St (13-15)2.895
250. Austin Peay (24-11)2.699


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.954


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
26. Maryland (19-15)3.375
38. Virginia Tech (21-14)3.335
52. Georgia Tech (15-17)3.283
57. Florida St (19-15)3.267
66. Virginia (17-16)3.245
96. North Carolina St (15-16)3.151
115. Boston College (14-17)3.093
119. Miami Fla (22-11)3.069
141. Wake Forest (17-13)3.006
252. Clemson (23-10)2.691
319. Duke (28-6)2.178
333. North Carolina (36-3)1.752


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 2.950


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
15. Syracuse (21-14)3.496
22. Villanova (22-13)3.397
39. Pittsburgh (26-10)3.334
68. West Virginia (25-11)3.241
86. Providence (15-16)3.178
107. South Florida (12-19)3.117
126. Cincinnati (13-19)3.041
135. Seton Hall (17-15)3.021
161. Marquette (24-10)2.950
180. DePaul (11-19)2.909
196. St Johns (11-19)2.870
242. Louisville (27-9)2.724
245. Connecticut (24-9)2.718
289. Notre Dame (25-8)2.516
300. Rutgers (11-20)2.417
311. Georgetown (28-6)2.264


HORIZON LEAGUE AVERAGE = 2.909


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
44. Loyola Chi (10-19)3.319
61. Illinois Chi (17-15)3.257
85. Cleveland St (19-13)3.180
144. Wisc Milwaukee (13-16)2.994
157. Detroit (6-23)2.960
178. Wright St (21-10)2.921
197. Youngstown St (7-21)2.869
208. Wisc Green Bay (15-15)2.828
332. Butler (30-4)1.854


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.904


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
19. SO Carolina St (12-20)3.450
25. Norfolk St (16-15)3.380
45. Coppin St (14-21)3.313
53. Bethune Cookman (9-20)3.280
163. Howard (6-26)2.946
227. Florida A&M (13-17)2.788
244. Delaware St (12-16)2.720
264. NO Carolina A&T (11-16)2.658
274. Hampton (18-12)2.598
297. Morgan St (21-11)2.465
308. MD Eastrn Shore (4-28)2.348


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 2.901


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Illinois (16-19)3.745
23. Ohio St (24-13)3.394
90. Minnesota (20-14)3.170
108. Penn St (15-16)3.115
168. Iowa (13-19)2.939
169. Michigan (10-22)2.938
211. Michigan St (27-9)2.819
254. Purdue (25-9)2.681
267. Indiana (25-8)2.619
296. Northwestern (7-22)2.466
325. Wisconsin (31-5)2.020


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.880


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
87. San Jose St (13-19)3.171
131. Hawaii (11-19)3.031
142. Fresno St (12-19)3.004
170. Nevada (20-12)2.936
171. Utah St (23-11)2.931
223. Louisiana Tech (6-24)2.792
232. Boise St (24-9)2.773
262. New Mexico St (20-14)2.663
269. Idaho (7-21)2.616


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.873


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
73. Mt St Marys (19-15)3.219
79. Central Conn (14-16)3.200
118. Monmouth NJ (7-24)3.070
129. Liu Brooklyn (15-15)3.035
152. St Francis NY (7-22)2.978
257. Fair Dickinson (8-20)2.669
266. St Francis PA (5-23)2.622
281. Wagner (23-8)2.542
286. Robert Morris (26-8)2.523


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 2.870


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
35. Valparaiso (20-14)3.340
83. Mo Kansas City (9-21)3.188
113. Centenary (9-21)3.102
123. Southern Utah (11-18)3.053
191. Oakland (15-14)2.883
207. Western Ill (10-18)2.829
298. Oral Roberts (23-9)2.437
320. Iupui (23-7)2.130


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 2.833


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
58. Oklahoma St (16-16)3.263
99. Oklahoma (23-12)3.148
117. Missouri (16-16)3.087
133. Colorado (11-20)3.022
134. Kansas St (20-12)3.022
154. Texas Tech (15-15)2.976
160. Texas A&M (24-11)2.954
193. Baylor (20-11)2.882
217. Nebraska (20-13)2.807
230. Iowa St (13-18)2.785
282. Texas (30-7)2.538
338. Kansas (36-3)1.507


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.827


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
16. Jackson St (14-20)3.486
82. Ark Pine Bluff (11-18)3.194
184. Texas Southern (7-25)2.897
213. Prairie View (7-22)2.814
224. Alcorn St (6-23)2.791
228. Southern (10-18)2.786
233. Alabama A&M (11-15)2.769
253. Miss Valley St (15-16)2.690
270. Grambling (7-17)2.613
315. Alabama St (17-11)2.235


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 2.811


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
69. Arizona (18-15)3.232
78. Washington (16-17)3.207
94. California (17-16)3.165
105. Oregon (18-14)3.121
111. Arizona St (21-13)3.111
205. USC (21-12)2.838
221. Washington St (26-9)2.794
235. Stanford (28-8)2.758
328. UCLA (34-4)1.968
331. Oregon St (6-24)1.912


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 2.810


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
60. Troy St (10-19)3.257
67. Denver (10-19)3.242
124. New Orleans (17-13)3.042
128. Ul Lafayette (14-15)3.036
172. Florida Intl (8-20)2.930
198. Arkansas St (8-20)2.867
209. Middle Tenn St (16-15)2.824
220. Arkansas Lr (18-11)2.800
238. North Texas (17-11)2.748
321. Western KY (27-7)2.099
322. South Alabama (24-7)2.068


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 2.791


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
76. Fla Atlantic (15-18)3.212
121. Campbell (9-20)3.064
125. Kennesaw St (9-20)3.041
138. Stetson (15-16)3.009
147. Lipscomb (14-16)2.988
158. Mercer (10-19)2.956
176. East Tenn St (18-13)2.924
183. Fla Gulf Coast (10-21)2.898
246. Gardner-Webb (15-16)2.712
275. SC Upstate (6-22)2.577
288. Jacksonville (17-13)2.521
307. Belmont (24-9)2.361
326. North Florida (2-26)2.015


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 2.784


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
55. Northwestern St (12-17)3.276
103. Texas A&M-CC (9-20)3.131
130. Texas Arlington (17-12)3.034
148. McNeese St (10-16)2.986
188. Nicholls St (9-21)2.889
202. Central Arkansas (10-16)2.852
204. Texas St (10-16)2.847
216. Tex San Antonio (9-17)2.809
239. SE Louisiana (13-13)2.730
255. Ul Monroe (7-21)2.672
285. Sam Houston (19-8)2.532
293. Lamar (15-11)2.489
329. Stephen Austin (22-6)1.947


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 2.742


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
41. Utah (17-15)3.327
122. San Diego St (19-13)3.061
192. Wyoming (10-18)2.882
259. Air Force (14-14)2.665
260. Colorado St (6-24)2.665
273. New Mexico (24-9)2.598
284. UNLV (26-8)2.534
294. TCU (13-16)2.473
295. BYU (27-8)2.473


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 2.715


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
37. UC Irvine (17-16)3.338
186. Cal Poly (11-18)2.892
240. Long Beach St (6-25)2.728
256. Pacific (20-10)2.670
263. CS Northridge (19-10)2.659
268. UC Riverside (8-21)2.618
301. UC Santa Barbara (22-9)2.412
303. CS Fullerton (23-9)2.401


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 2.688


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
75. Coll Of Charltn (16-17)3.214
98. Elon (13-18)3.149
166. Westrn Carolina (9-21)2.939
173. Appalachian St (17-13)2.929
181. Geo Southern (18-12)2.903
200. Furman (7-23)2.857
229. Chattanooga (16-13)2.785
249. NC Greensboro (19-12)2.700
277. Wofford (12-16)2.572
330. Davidson (28-7)1.918
336. The Citadel (2-24)1.607


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 2.688


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
33. Tulsa (25-14)3.353
81. Texas El Paso (19-14)3.196
114. Central Florida (16-15)3.096
116. Tulane (16-15)3.092
195. Marshall (14-14)2.873
195. Marshall (14-14)2.873
203. Uab (23-11)2.849
234. East Carolina (9-18)2.762
258. Houston (24-10)2.667
283. SO Mississippi (15-14)2.536
309. SMU (8-20)2.332
327. Rice (3-27)2.008
340. Memphis (38-2)1.303


BIGSOUTH AVERAGE = 2.680


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
159. Liberty (13-16)2.955
215. VMI (10-15)2.813
237. Winthrop (20-12)2.754
243. Radford (8-20)2.724
248. High Point (13-14)2.703
261. Coast Carolina (10-15)2.663
278. Charleston Sou (6-20)2.568
312. NC Asheville (19-10)2.263


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.656


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
77. San Diego (21-14)3.208
162. Portland (8-22)2.949
214. San Francisco (9-21)2.814
218. Pepperdine (10-21)2.806
271. Santa Clara (13-16)2.607
304. Loyola Marymnt (5-26)2.399
313. St Marys CA (24-7)2.248
316. Gonzaga (25-8)2.217


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 2.644


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
136. Harvard (8-22)3.015
149. Pennsylvania (13-18)2.985
187. Columbia (13-15)2.890
190. Dartmouth (9-18)2.885
241. Princeton (5-22)2.726
272. Yale (12-15)2.604
305. Brown (19-10)2.390
335. Cornell (21-6)1.658


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 2.604


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
165. Idaho St (10-19)2.941
167. Montana St (13-15)2.939
177. Montana (12-16)2.923
206. Weber St (15-13)2.830
247. Eastern Wash (9-19)2.708
276. Northrn Arizona (19-11)2.575
314. Portland St (21-10)2.235
334. Sacramento St (2-24)1.683


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 2.316


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
139. Winston-Salem (10-18)3.008
174. Northern Colorado (11-16)2.929
175. South Dakota St (7-21)2.929
210. IPFW (11-18)2.821
231. CSU Bakersfield (8-21)2.777
280. North Dakota St (14-13)2.562
287. Utah Valley St (13-14)2.521
291. UC Davis (7-22)2.504
299. Savannah St (10-17)2.422
310. Longwood (6-22)2.286
318. TX Pan American (13-13)2.196
324. Chicago St (8-17)2.021
337. NC Central (3-23)1.586
339. Presbyterian (2-25)1.467
341. NJIT (0-29)0.719
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