NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Strength of Schedule

By ranking
Last Updated Wed Apr 30 18:36:44 CDT 2008

Home Court Advantage = 3.6

PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 0.220


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Oregon St (6-24)0.355
15. California (17-16)0.284
22. Arizona (18-15)0.255
28. Washington (16-17)0.242
30. Oregon (18-14)0.235
43. USC (21-12)0.215
57. Arizona St (21-13)0.182
67. Stanford (28-8)0.168
77. Washington St (26-9)0.160
115. UCLA (34-4)0.104


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 0.216


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Colorado (11-20)0.317
13. Iowa St (13-18)0.291
14. Oklahoma St (16-16)0.288
20. Texas Tech (15-15)0.259
32. Missouri (16-16)0.234
38. Oklahoma (23-12)0.226
50. Kansas St (20-12)0.195
55. Baylor (20-11)0.185
56. Nebraska (20-13)0.184
60. Texas A&M (24-11)0.181
80. Texas (30-7)0.156
135. Kansas (36-3)0.069


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 0.206


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. DePaul (11-19)0.325
7. St Johns (11-19)0.318
11. Cincinnati (13-19)0.311
19. Providence (15-16)0.260
23. South Florida (12-19)0.255
26. Rutgers (11-20)0.246
41. Villanova (22-13)0.216
48. Seton Hall (17-15)0.198
61. Pittsburgh (26-10)0.178
62. Syracuse (21-14)0.177
83. West Virginia (25-11)0.151
86. Marquette (24-10)0.145
87. Connecticut (24-9)0.142
97. Louisville (27-9)0.127
100. Notre Dame (25-8)0.124
102. Georgetown (28-6)0.123


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 0.198


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Northwestern (7-22)0.348
5. Michigan (10-22)0.332
24. Illinois (16-19)0.254
31. Penn St (15-16)0.234
44. Iowa (13-19)0.214
71. Minnesota (20-14)0.164
76. Michigan St (27-9)0.160
81. Ohio St (24-13)0.153
101. Purdue (25-9)0.124
107. Indiana (25-8)0.115
128. Wisconsin (31-5)0.084


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.194


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
12. North Carolina St (15-16)0.297
16. Boston College (14-17)0.279
18. Georgia Tech (15-17)0.271
37. Florida St (19-15)0.229
46. Maryland (19-15)0.200
52. Virginia (17-16)0.192
63. Wake Forest (17-13)0.176
64. Miami Fla (22-11)0.173
68. Clemson (23-10)0.167
82. Virginia Tech (21-14)0.151
110. Duke (28-6)0.108
124. North Carolina (36-3)0.089


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.171


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
25. Georgia (16-17)0.250
27. LSU (12-18)0.243
29. South Carolina (14-18)0.237
49. Kentucky (18-13)0.198
53. Alabama (17-16)0.189
59. Auburn (14-16)0.182
70. Arkansas (23-12)0.166
96. Tennessee (30-5)0.128
99. Mississippi (24-11)0.125
105. Mississippi St (23-11)0.117
106. Vanderbilt (26-8)0.116
113. Florida (24-12)0.106


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 0.160


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
34. Evansville (8-21)0.233
40. Indiana St (14-16)0.223
47. Wichita St (11-20)0.199
66. Southern Ill (18-15)0.169
75. Bradley (21-17)0.161
78. Missouri St (16-16)0.158
79. Northern Iowa (17-14)0.158
84. Creighton (21-11)0.148
125. Illinois St (24-10)0.088
143. Drake (26-5)0.056


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 0.153


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
21. Geo Washington (9-17)0.258
39. Fordham (11-17)0.224
45. St Bonaventure (8-22)0.205
58. St Louis (15-15)0.182
65. Richmond (16-15)0.170
69. La Salle (14-17)0.167
74. Charlotte (20-14)0.162
89. Dayton (23-11)0.141
92. St Josephs (21-13)0.137
95. Temple (21-13)0.130
108. Massachusetts (25-11)0.113
117. Xavier (30-7)0.099
127. Rhode Island (21-12)0.087
136. Duquesne (17-13)0.069


HORIZON LEAGUE AVERAGE = 0.136


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
17. Youngstown St (7-21)0.274
35. Detroit (6-23)0.231
51. Loyola Chi (10-19)0.193
91. Wisc Milwaukee (13-16)0.138
98. Wisc Green Bay (15-15)0.125
104. Cleveland St (19-13)0.118
126. Illinois Chi (17-15)0.088
152. Wright St (21-10)0.045
173. Butler (30-4)0.014


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.111


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
33. Northern Ill (6-22)0.233
42. Toledo (11-19)0.215
72. Ball St (6-24)0.164
73. Miami Ohio (17-16)0.163
85. Central Mich (13-16)0.146
93. Buffalo (9-20)0.135
103. Bowling Green (13-17)0.118
139. Ohio (20-13)0.064
156. Akron (24-11)0.037
160. Kent (28-7)0.027
171. Eastern Mich (14-17)0.015
174. Western Mich (20-12)0.012


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 0.109


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Colorado St (6-24)0.312
88. Utah (17-15)0.142
90. Wyoming (10-18)0.139
111. San Diego St (19-13)0.107
130. TCU (13-16)0.082
131. Air Force (14-14)0.080
142. UNLV (26-8)0.057
154. BYU (27-8)0.044
167. New Mexico (24-9)0.019


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 0.095


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. Rice (3-27)0.314
109. Tulane (16-15)0.111
112. SO Mississippi (15-14)0.107
114. East Carolina (9-18)0.106
119. SMU (8-20)0.097
121. Marshall (14-14)0.093
121. Marshall (14-14)0.093
132. Texas El Paso (19-14)0.077
134. Uab (23-11)0.071
140. Central Florida (16-15)0.060
141. Tulsa (25-14)0.058
155. Memphis (38-2)0.040
172. Houston (24-10)0.014


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.050


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
54. Loyola Marymnt (5-26)0.187
120. Pepperdine (10-21)0.096
144. San Diego (21-14)0.055
148. Gonzaga (25-8)0.050
168. Portland (8-22)0.019
184. St Marys CA (24-7)0.002
185. San Francisco (9-21)0.002
195. Santa Clara (13-16)-0.008


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 0.046


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
36. The Citadel (2-24)0.229
122. Furman (7-23)0.092
145. Wofford (12-16)0.053
147. Davidson (28-7)0.050
149. Westrn Carolina (9-21)0.048
151. Elon (13-18)0.046
165. Chattanooga (16-13)0.022
183. NC Greensboro (19-12)0.003
188. Geo Southern (18-12)-0.001
198. Coll Of Charltn (16-17)-0.010
205. Appalachian St (17-13)-0.022


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 0.013


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
116. Valparaiso (20-14)0.100
118. Centenary (9-21)0.098
138. Mo Kansas City (9-21)0.067
164. Western Ill (10-18)0.023
180. Oakland (15-14)0.007
189. Oral Roberts (23-9)-0.001
190. Southern Utah (11-18)-0.001
320. Iupui (23-7)-0.188


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = -0.002


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Presbyterian (2-25)0.344
4. NC Central (3-23)0.336
123. IPFW (11-18)0.089
129. Chicago St (8-17)0.083
150. NJIT (0-29)0.048
197. South Dakota St (7-21)-0.010
202. UC Davis (7-22)-0.013
228. Savannah St (10-17)-0.055
230. CSU Bakersfield (8-21)-0.057
235. Longwood (6-22)-0.061
240. North Dakota St (14-13)-0.071
245. Northern Colorado (11-16)-0.083
308. Winston-Salem (10-18)-0.166
315. Utah Valley St (13-14)-0.178
333. TX Pan American (13-13)-0.240


COLONIAL AVERAGE = -0.007


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
146. Northeastern (14-17)0.051
153. Old Dominion (18-16)0.044
158. Delaware (14-17)0.032
159. William & Mary (15-16)0.032
162. Drexel (12-20)0.026
193. Georgia St (9-21)-0.006
199. Hofstra (12-18)-0.011
200. Towson (13-18)-0.012
217. James Madison (13-17)-0.041
218. George Mason (23-11)-0.041
227. NC Wilmington (20-13)-0.052
265. VA Commonwealth (24-8)-0.111


SUN BELT AVERAGE = -0.028


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
133. Florida Intl (8-20)0.072
166. Troy St (10-19)0.022
169. Middle Tenn St (16-15)0.018
175. Arkansas St (8-20)0.009
177. Denver (10-19)0.009
208. Western KY (27-7)-0.027
216. Ul Lafayette (14-15)-0.039
226. New Orleans (17-13)-0.050
259. North Texas (17-11)-0.102
263. South Alabama (24-7)-0.107
271. Arkansas Lr (18-11)-0.116


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.032


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
137. Canisius (6-25)0.067
181. St Peters (6-24)0.006
182. Marist (18-14)0.005
187. Fairfield (14-16)0.0
209. Iona (12-20)-0.029
224. Siena (23-11)-0.048
229. Manhattan (12-19)-0.055
238. Loyola MD (19-14)-0.069
246. Niagara (19-10)-0.085
270. Rider (23-11)-0.115


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = -0.054


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
94. Ul Monroe (7-21)0.130
161. Texas A&M-CC (9-20)0.027
163. Tex San Antonio (9-17)0.024
170. Nicholls St (9-21)0.017
178. Northwestern St (12-17)0.008
201. McNeese St (10-16)-0.012
237. Texas St (10-16)-0.068
239. Central Arkansas (10-16)-0.070
247. Texas Arlington (17-12)-0.085
258. SE Louisiana (13-13)-0.102
295. Lamar (15-11)-0.153
321. Sam Houston (19-8)-0.191
328. Stephen Austin (22-6)-0.230


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.057


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
176. Idaho (7-21)0.009
204. Nevada (20-12)-0.017
212. San Jose St (13-19)-0.037
214. Louisiana Tech (6-24)-0.039
215. Fresno St (12-19)-0.039
223. Hawaii (11-19)-0.047
248. New Mexico St (20-14)-0.087
266. Boise St (24-9)-0.111
286. Utah St (23-11)-0.142


BIG WEST AVERAGE = -0.072


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
186. Cal Poly (11-18)0.001
194. UC Riverside (8-21)-0.007
196. Long Beach St (6-25)-0.010
220. UC Irvine (17-16)-0.045
253. CS Northridge (19-10)-0.095
261. UC Santa Barbara (22-9)-0.104
292. Pacific (20-10)-0.148
307. CS Fullerton (23-9)-0.165


BIG SKY AVERAGE = -0.082


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
157. Sacramento St (2-24)0.033
191. Idaho St (10-19)-0.002
222. Eastern Wash (9-19)-0.045
244. Montana St (13-15)-0.082
272. Montana (12-16)-0.117
274. Portland St (21-10)-0.118
301. Weber St (15-13)-0.155
311. Northrn Arizona (19-11)-0.173


BIGSOUTH AVERAGE = -0.094


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
203. Radford (8-20)-0.015
207. Charleston Sou (6-20)-0.024
232. Winthrop (20-12)-0.058
236. Coast Carolina (10-15)-0.066
275. VMI (10-15)-0.126
291. Liberty (13-16)-0.147
296. NC Asheville (19-10)-0.154
306. High Point (13-14)-0.165


PATRIOT AVERAGE = -0.110


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
179. Bucknell (12-19)0.007
231. Holy Cross (15-14)-0.058
254. Lafayette (15-15)-0.096
257. Army (14-16)-0.099
277. American (21-12)-0.129
281. Lehigh (14-15)-0.138
293. Colgate (18-14)-0.151
325. Navy (16-14)-0.217


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = -0.110


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
206. Princeton (5-22)-0.022
219. Harvard (8-22)-0.044
250. Pennsylvania (13-18)-0.089
252. Dartmouth (9-18)-0.094
255. Yale (12-15)-0.097
289. Columbia (13-15)-0.146
299. Brown (19-10)-0.154
332. Cornell (21-6)-0.237


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = -0.123


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
192. SC Upstate (6-22)-0.002
213. North Florida (2-26)-0.038
242. Fla Gulf Coast (10-21)-0.075
243. Fla Atlantic (15-18)-0.078
264. East Tenn St (18-13)-0.110
269. Campbell (9-20)-0.115
276. Kennesaw St (9-20)-0.128
288. Mercer (10-19)-0.145
300. Gardner-Webb (15-16)-0.155
304. Lipscomb (14-16)-0.164
312. Jacksonville (17-13)-0.173
322. Stetson (15-16)-0.198
326. Belmont (24-9)-0.220


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = -0.124


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
221. Maine (6-23)-0.045
249. Stony Brook (7-23)-0.088
256. New Hampshire (8-20)-0.097
260. Boston U (14-17)-0.102
267. Hartford (18-16)-0.114
285. Binghamton (14-16)-0.142
309. Albany NY (15-15)-0.166
317. Vermont (16-15)-0.181
318. Umbc (23-9)-0.183


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.132


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
210. Monmouth NJ (7-24)-0.033
211. St Francis PA (5-23)-0.037
233. Fair Dickinson (8-20)-0.060
234. St Francis NY (7-22)-0.060
287. Mt St Marys (19-15)-0.145
305. Central Conn (14-16)-0.164
313. Liu Brooklyn (15-15)-0.176
336. Robert Morris (26-8)-0.254
337. Wagner (23-8)-0.258


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = -0.149


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
251. Eastern Ill (6-22)-0.092
262. SE Missouri St (10-19)-0.107
268. Jacksonville St (5-22)-0.115
278. Samford (12-16)-0.131
282. Tennessee Tech (11-19)-0.140
283. Tennessee St (13-17)-0.141
290. Morehead St (13-15)-0.146
294. Eastern KY (12-16)-0.151
319. Tenn Martin (15-16)-0.186
324. Austin Peay (24-11)-0.208
327. Murray St (16-13)-0.223


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.175


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
225. MD Eastrn Shore (4-28)-0.049
241. Howard (6-26)-0.074
284. NO Carolina A&T (11-16)-0.141
298. Coppin St (14-21)-0.154
302. Delaware St (12-16)-0.156
310. SO Carolina St (12-20)-0.172
314. Bethune Cookman (9-20)-0.176
323. Florida A&M (13-17)-0.207
334. Hampton (18-12)-0.249
338. Norfolk St (16-15)-0.260
340. Morgan St (21-11)-0.286


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.219


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
273. Texas Southern (7-25)-0.117
279. Alcorn St (6-23)-0.138
297. Prairie View (7-22)-0.154
316. Grambling (7-17)-0.179
329. Jackson St (14-20)-0.231
330. Southern (10-18)-0.234
331. Ark Pine Bluff (11-18)-0.235
335. Miss Valley St (15-16)-0.253
339. Alabama A&M (11-15)-0.273
341. Alabama St (17-11)-0.378
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