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Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Conference Predictive / Points Rankings

By ranking
Last Updated Wed Apr 30 18:36:44 CDT 2008

Home Court Advantage = 2.8

BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 83.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Kansas (36-3)93.87-19-16-1
7. Texas (30-7)88.15-58-06-2
23. Texas A&M (24-11)85.21-45-56-2
28. Kansas St (20-12)84.33-62-33-3
34. Oklahoma (23-12)83.32-85-26-1
36. Baylor (20-11)83.12-62-34-1
40. Nebraska (20-13)82.81-43-45-3
58. Missouri (16-16)81.52-42-71-4
60. Texas Tech (15-15)81.32-52-63-2
65. Oklahoma St (16-16)81.02-62-44-4
121. Iowa St (13-18)77.71-61-52-5
124. Colorado (11-20)77.60-63-60-5


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 82.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. UCLA (34-4)90.311-35-07-1
12. Stanford (28-8)86.45-54-16-2
13. Washington St (26-9)86.33-65-25-1
24. USC (21-12)84.82-74-27-2
30. Arizona (18-15)84.14-91-27-4
39. Oregon (18-14)82.91-83-26-3
52. Arizona St (21-13)82.13-73-33-3
69. California (17-16)80.92-71-66-3
71. Washington (16-17)80.81-92-23-5
268. Oregon St (6-24)70.10-80-50-6


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 82.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. North Carolina (36-3)91.47-27-07-1
5. Duke (28-6)88.85-42-19-1
21. Clemson (23-10)85.42-43-36-3
38. Miami Fla (22-11)83.02-42-17-3
43. Virginia Tech (21-14)82.70-51-39-2
55. Georgia Tech (15-17)81.72-51-65-5
64. Wake Forest (17-13)81.11-23-23-7
67. Florida St (19-15)81.01-63-15-6
72. Maryland (19-15)80.81-40-38-5
91. Virginia (17-16)79.30-51-32-7
106. North Carolina St (15-16)78.21-73-12-5
115. Boston College (14-17)77.90-61-44-6


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 81.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Louisville (27-9)88.17-43-24-1
9. Georgetown (28-6)87.75-53-03-1
14. Marquette (24-10)86.24-81-14-1
16. West Virginia (25-11)86.03-72-35-0
18. Pittsburgh (26-10)85.66-51-26-1
22. Notre Dame (25-8)85.33-53-23-1
26. Connecticut (24-9)84.65-41-22-2
44. Villanova (22-13)82.73-71-16-1
51. Syracuse (21-14)82.22-52-65-1
83. Providence (15-16)79.90-83-22-2
102. Cincinnati (13-19)78.43-71-22-4
104. Seton Hall (17-15)78.21-70-22-2
126. DePaul (11-19)77.40-91-41-4
127. South Florida (12-19)77.30-60-23-5
146. St Johns (11-19)76.10-90-41-2
178. Rutgers (11-20)74.11-71-30-2


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 81.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Wisconsin (31-5)88.53-54-07-0
17. Michigan St (27-9)85.93-54-27-0
25. Purdue (25-9)84.84-32-24-2
27. Indiana (25-8)84.42-42-28-1
29. Ohio St (24-13)84.22-83-27-1
70. Illinois (16-19)80.91-80-56-2
78. Minnesota (20-14)80.30-52-40-5
123. Penn St (15-16)77.71-52-32-3
135. Iowa (13-19)76.71-61-30-4
147. Michigan (10-22)76.10-101-31-3
186. Northwestern (7-22)73.70-70-41-5


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 81.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. Tennessee (30-5)87.34-29-25-1
31. Mississippi St (23-11)84.00-34-46-4
37. Arkansas (23-12)83.01-27-35-5
47. Florida (24-12)82.30-21-68-3
48. Mississippi (24-11)82.31-17-34-3
50. Vanderbilt (26-8)82.31-13-47-3
68. Kentucky (18-13)80.91-44-43-3
85. Alabama (17-16)79.90-44-62-2
89. Georgia (16-17)79.30-44-74-2
105. South Carolina (14-18)78.20-52-63-4
114. LSU (12-18)78.00-22-72-5
138. Auburn (14-16)76.60-32-71-3


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 79.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
20. Drake (26-5)85.61-00-110-4
56. Illinois St (24-10)81.70-30-29-2
59. Southern Ill (18-15)81.31-32-16-7
74. Creighton (21-11)80.60-42-17-4
86. Bradley (21-17)79.81-30-16-10
93. Missouri St (16-16)79.01-20-13-9
107. Northern Iowa (17-14)78.10-21-05-8
128. Indiana St (14-16)77.20-50-04-7
150. Wichita St (11-20)76.00-20-14-8
204. Evansville (8-21)72.90-30-02-9


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 79.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
15. Xavier (30-7)86.22-25-29-3
46. Massachusetts (25-11)82.50-11-410-3
49. St Josephs (21-13)82.32-13-23-7
54. Temple (21-13)81.71-33-35-4
62. Dayton (23-11)81.22-31-27-3
75. Rhode Island (21-12)80.60-10-35-5
79. Charlotte (20-14)80.32-12-27-6
80. Duquesne (17-13)80.30-41-11-3
119. St Louis (15-15)77.70-22-23-7
139. Richmond (16-15)76.50-21-35-3
140. La Salle (14-17)76.50-11-33-6
161. Fordham (11-17)75.40-21-23-8
168. Geo Washington (9-17)75.10-30-32-5
226. St Bonaventure (8-22)71.70-10-31-6


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 78.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
33. BYU (27-8)83.81-33-24-2
41. UNLV (26-8)82.70-24-35-1
42. New Mexico (24-9)82.70-01-44-3
81. Utah (17-15)80.10-02-83-3
96. San Diego St (19-13)78.90-02-72-3
158. Air Force (14-14)75.50-11-51-5
179. TCU (13-16)74.00-11-72-3
184. Wyoming (10-18)73.70-00-62-3
266. Colorado St (6-24)70.20-10-70-5


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 77.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Memphis (38-2)92.65-25-011-0
63. Houston (24-10)81.20-20-23-3
66. Uab (23-11)81.00-20-15-4
82. Tulsa (25-14)80.10-30-18-4
100. SO Mississippi (15-14)78.60-30-11-6
108. Central Florida (16-15)78.10-10-42-5
112. Texas El Paso (19-14)78.00-20-24-8
151. Marshall (14-14)76.00-30-02-4
151. Marshall (14-14)76.00-30-02-4
166. Tulane (16-15)75.20-20-02-7
218. East Carolina (9-18)72.30-20-02-5
283. SMU (8-20)69.20-20-00-8
316. Rice (3-27)66.60-30-20-7


HORIZON LEAGUE AVERAGE = 76.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
19. Butler (30-4)85.60-22-010-1
98. Cleveland St (19-13)78.81-20-22-3
99. Illinois Chi (17-15)78.70-30-02-4
113. Wright St (21-10)78.01-10-05-3
153. Wisc Green Bay (15-15)75.90-40-22-3
163. Wisc Milwaukee (13-16)75.30-50-01-4
182. Loyola Chi (10-19)74.00-30-01-6
221. Youngstown St (7-21)72.10-40-11-5
222. Detroit (6-23)72.00-31-01-4


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 75.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
45. Kent (28-7)82.50-20-113-1
77. Akron (24-11)80.50-00-48-3
84. Miami Ohio (17-16)79.91-31-34-6
92. Ohio (20-13)79.10-11-14-7
94. Western Mich (20-12)79.01-00-23-4
172. Central Mich (13-16)74.70-00-13-9
181. Eastern Mich (14-17)74.00-10-13-6
183. Bowling Green (13-17)74.00-01-12-8
197. Toledo (11-19)73.30-11-32-8
206. Buffalo (9-20)72.90-10-30-8
232. Ball St (6-24)71.70-30-20-6
274. Northern Ill (6-22)69.90-10-21-6


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 74.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
73. Iupui (23-7)80.70-11-02-2
76. Oral Roberts (23-9)80.60-30-14-2
110. Valparaiso (20-14)78.10-40-14-5
149. Oakland (15-14)76.00-21-01-5
217. Southern Utah (11-18)72.30-00-20-6
257. Mo Kansas City (9-21)70.50-10-10-6
261. Western Ill (10-18)70.40-10-10-5
270. Centenary (9-21)70.10-00-12-5


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 74.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
35. Western KY (27-7)83.31-21-10-3
57. South Alabama (24-7)81.60-13-21-1
144. North Texas (17-11)76.20-10-22-0
164. Middle Tenn St (16-15)75.30-20-32-2
176. New Orleans (17-13)74.20-00-10-4
185. Arkansas Lr (18-11)73.70-00-21-2
194. Ul Lafayette (14-15)73.40-10-10-4
223. Denver (10-19)72.00-00-20-1
234. Troy St (10-19)71.60-00-30-3
255. Florida Intl (8-20)70.60-10-30-4
275. Arkansas St (8-20)69.80-10-10-2


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 74.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Davidson (28-7)87.72-41-03-2
95. NC Greensboro (19-12)79.00-30-21-1
133. Geo Southern (18-12)76.80-20-13-3
143. Appalachian St (17-13)76.20-21-01-3
159. Chattanooga (16-13)75.50-30-11-3
167. Coll Of Charltn (16-17)75.10-20-11-4
187. Elon (13-18)73.70-30-10-5
200. Wofford (12-16)73.01-40-12-1
246. Westrn Carolina (9-21)71.00-20-10-3
286. Furman (7-23)68.80-30-01-2
333. The Citadel (2-24)63.90-40-00-2


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 74.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
61. VA Commonwealth (24-8)81.30-00-24-2
90. George Mason (23-11)79.30-11-23-1
131. Old Dominion (18-16)77.10-41-02-4
157. NC Wilmington (20-13)75.50-00-12-6
162. Northeastern (14-17)75.40-00-11-7
189. Delaware (14-17)73.60-00-01-5
192. William & Mary (15-16)73.40-10-01-4
210. James Madison (13-17)72.60-00-02-3
212. Hofstra (12-18)72.50-00-11-4
230. Towson (13-18)71.70-00-00-5
237. Drexel (12-20)71.50-00-10-6
245. Georgia St (9-21)71.10-00-01-5


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 74.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
32. Gonzaga (25-8)83.90-44-13-2
53. St Marys CA (24-7)81.71-12-33-1
117. San Diego (21-14)77.90-12-53-4
169. Santa Clara (13-16)74.80-10-31-3
225. Pepperdine (10-21)71.80-10-40-3
264. San Francisco (9-21)70.30-10-40-2
273. Portland (8-22)69.90-00-40-4
332. Loyola Marymnt (5-26)63.90-00-50-3


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 74.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
87. CS Fullerton (23-9)79.70-10-10-1
111. UC Santa Barbara (22-9)78.00-21-12-0
132. CS Northridge (19-10)77.00-00-12-4
145. Pacific (20-10)76.10-00-12-1
160. UC Irvine (17-16)75.50-10-10-4
253. Cal Poly (11-18)70.70-10-10-3
291. UC Riverside (8-21)68.50-10-10-6
303. Long Beach St (6-25)67.40-00-10-4


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 73.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
88. Siena (23-11)79.51-11-20-1
120. Rider (23-11)77.70-00-11-2
137. Niagara (19-10)76.60-00-00-3
142. Marist (18-14)76.20-00-20-5
155. Loyola MD (19-14)75.70-10-02-3
193. Fairfield (14-16)73.40-10-11-2
233. Iona (12-20)71.70-20-11-2
254. Manhattan (12-19)70.60-00-01-2
290. St Peters (6-24)68.50-00-00-3
302. Canisius (6-25)67.60-10-00-2


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 73.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
101. Nevada (20-12)78.60-10-10-3
109. Utah St (23-11)78.10-00-11-2
116. Boise St (24-9)77.90-21-00-1
125. New Mexico St (20-14)77.50-41-10-1
216. Fresno St (12-19)72.40-10-20-2
251. Hawaii (11-19)70.90-00-20-2
259. San Jose St (13-19)70.40-10-00-0
296. Idaho (7-21)68.10-10-10-1
325. Louisiana Tech (6-24)65.40-00-10-2


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 72.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
148. American (21-12)76.00-20-01-1
177. Holy Cross (15-14)74.10-01-01-3
188. Colgate (18-14)73.70-10-00-1
190. Lafayette (15-15)73.50-10-10-0
199. Navy (16-14)73.10-00-00-1
235. Bucknell (12-19)71.60-00-10-2
252. Lehigh (14-15)70.80-00-00-1
256. Army (14-16)70.50-00-00-1


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 72.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
97. Stephen Austin (22-6)78.90-01-10-1
134. Sam Houston (19-8)76.70-00-02-2
154. Lamar (15-11)75.80-00-20-3
175. Texas Arlington (17-12)74.30-10-01-2
201. SE Louisiana (13-13)73.00-00-10-2
229. Northwestern St (12-17)71.70-10-11-3
238. McNeese St (10-16)71.50-10-01-2
239. Nicholls St (9-21)71.50-10-11-5
263. Ul Monroe (7-21)70.30-20-40-2
267. Texas A&M-CC (9-20)70.10-00-21-3
271. Texas St (10-16)70.00-20-00-2
272. Tex San Antonio (9-17)70.00-10-10-4
277. Central Arkansas (10-16)69.50-00-00-4


BIGSOUTH AVERAGE = 71.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
103. Winthrop (20-12)78.30-31-23-1
173. NC Asheville (19-10)74.70-20-20-0
198. High Point (13-14)73.20-00-10-3
224. Liberty (13-16)72.00-00-10-3
260. VMI (10-15)70.40-00-10-0
279. Coast Carolina (10-15)69.40-00-00-1
294. Radford (8-20)68.20-20-00-0
315. Charleston Sou (6-20)66.70-00-20-0


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 71.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
129. Portland St (21-10)77.20-30-02-2
156. Northrn Arizona (19-11)75.60-11-20-0
191. Weber St (15-13)73.50-00-20-2
203. Montana (12-16)72.90-10-10-2
248. Montana St (13-15)71.00-00-10-1
262. Eastern Wash (9-19)70.40-20-20-1
288. Idaho St (10-19)68.60-20-10-2
337. Sacramento St (2-24)62.50-20-20-0


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 71.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
122. Cornell (21-6)77.70-20-01-2
141. Brown (19-10)76.40-10-10-3
240. Yale (12-15)71.40-30-10-0
250. Columbia (13-15)70.90-00-20-0
276. Pennsylvania (13-18)69.70-10-30-2
289. Harvard (8-22)68.60-10-00-1
293. Dartmouth (9-18)68.20-00-00-1
307. Princeton (5-22)67.10-10-00-1


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 71.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
130. Umbc (23-9)77.10-20-10-0
180. Vermont (16-15)74.00-00-10-2
196. Albany NY (15-15)73.40-10-00-1
227. Boston U (14-17)71.70-10-20-0
228. Binghamton (14-16)71.70-00-00-1
243. Hartford (18-16)71.30-10-20-1
284. New Hampshire (8-20)68.90-00-00-1
311. Stony Brook (7-23)66.90-00-10-1
326. Maine (6-23)65.40-00-10-2


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 70.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
136. Robert Morris (26-8)76.70-00-00-2
171. Mt St Marys (19-15)74.80-10-20-0
195. Wagner (23-8)73.40-00-10-0
208. Central Conn (14-16)72.80-00-10-0
215. Liu Brooklyn (15-15)72.40-10-00-0
304. Fair Dickinson (8-20)67.30-00-10-3
305. St Francis NY (7-22)67.30-00-00-1
306. Monmouth NJ (7-24)67.20-10-01-0
320. St Francis PA (5-23)66.20-00-00-2


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 70.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
118. Belmont (24-9)77.70-20-01-0
170. East Tenn St (18-13)74.80-00-01-4
205. Gardner-Webb (15-16)72.90-10-31-1
209. Jacksonville (17-13)72.60-20-10-2
211. Lipscomb (14-16)72.60-10-10-0
213. Fla Atlantic (15-18)72.40-10-20-4
269. Stetson (15-16)70.10-00-20-3
297. SC Upstate (6-22)68.00-00-00-6
298. Mercer (10-19)67.81-00-00-1
299. Campbell (9-20)67.70-00-00-0
309. Fla Gulf Coast (10-21)66.90-20-00-3
312. Kennesaw St (9-20)66.80-00-20-1
338. North Florida (2-26)62.40-10-20-2


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 69.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
165. Austin Peay (24-11)75.20-20-10-1
220. Murray St (16-13)72.20-00-20-0
242. Tennessee St (13-17)71.30-00-21-2
244. Tenn Martin (15-16)71.30-10-30-0
258. Tennessee Tech (11-19)70.50-00-10-2
278. Morehead St (13-15)69.40-10-10-1
280. Eastern KY (12-16)69.40-10-10-1
292. Samford (12-16)68.50-10-00-1
308. SE Missouri St (10-19)67.10-10-00-3
324. Eastern Ill (6-22)65.60-00-00-0
328. Jacksonville St (5-22)65.20-00-00-1


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 68.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
152. North Dakota St (14-13)75.90-00-11-5
202. IPFW (11-18)73.00-30-20-5
219. Utah Valley St (13-14)72.30-10-00-0
236. TX Pan American (13-13)71.50-10-00-4
247. Chicago St (8-17)71.00-20-10-6
249. Northern Colorado (11-16)70.90-00-11-0
281. South Dakota St (7-21)69.40-00-00-5
282. Savannah St (10-17)69.20-20-21-2
310. Presbyterian (2-25)66.90-10-40-5
318. UC Davis (7-22)66.40-20-00-2
319. CSU Bakersfield (8-21)66.40-00-00-3
322. Winston-Salem (10-18)65.90-00-10-2
327. Longwood (6-22)65.40-00-20-2
330. NC Central (3-23)64.70-30-30-4
341. NJIT (0-29)55.50-00-00-1


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 68.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
174. Morgan St (21-11)74.70-00-30-1
214. Hampton (18-12)72.40-00-12-3
265. Delaware St (12-16)70.30-20-10-3
285. Norfolk St (16-15)68.80-00-10-0
287. Coppin St (14-21)68.80-20-30-3
295. Florida A&M (13-17)68.20-20-40-0
300. NO Carolina A&T (11-16)67.70-30-10-2
313. SO Carolina St (12-20)66.80-10-00-0
323. Bethune Cookman (9-20)65.80-10-00-1
331. Howard (6-26)64.20-00-00-4
340. MD Eastrn Shore (4-28)60.50-10-10-2


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 65.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
231. Alabama St (17-11)71.70-00-10-3
301. Miss Valley St (15-16)67.70-30-20-2
314. Jackson St (14-20)66.80-10-20-3
317. Southern (10-18)66.50-00-10-3
321. Alabama A&M (11-15)66.10-00-20-1
329. Ark Pine Bluff (11-18)65.20-10-00-1
334. Prairie View (7-22)63.40-20-10-1
335. Texas Southern (7-25)62.90-20-00-2
336. Grambling (7-17)62.80-00-00-3
339. Alcorn St (6-23)62.00-00-20-1
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