NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Home Advantage

By ranking
Last Updated Tue Apr 04 17:41:27 EDT 2000

Home Court Advantage = 4.0236

MIDWESTERN COLLEGIATE CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 12.533


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Wright St (11-17)20.832
8. Detroit (18-12)15.740
14. Loyola Chi (14-14)13.391
15. Illinois Chi (10-20)13.329
16. Wisc Green Bay (14-16)13.248
27. Butler (23-9)10.379
69. Wisc Milwaukee (14-14)7.2791
102. Cleveland St (15-14)6.0681


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 7.5360


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Alabama (12-16)16.915
9. Kentucky (22-10)14.282
26. Mississippi (16-13)10.615
33. Mississippi St (13-17)9.6679
48. Georgia (10-20)8.1642
89. Auburn (23-10)6.6896
91. Tennessee (24-7)6.6720
104. LSU (28-6)6.0334
117. Vanderbilt (19-10)5.6258
175. Florida (29-8)3.4006
226. South Carolina (15-17)1.5202
237. Arkansas (19-15)0.8439


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 7.4799


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Nebraska (11-19)16.842
11. Colorado (17-13)14.028
38. Iowa St (29-5)9.1310
40. Kansas (23-10)8.9371
52. Texas (24-9)8.0378
60. Kansas St (9-19)7.7514
77. Texas Tech (11-15)6.9692
83. Texas A&M (7-20)6.8166
144. Baylor (13-15)4.6436
170. Oklahoma St (26-7)3.5783
199. Oklahoma (27-7)2.7552
251. Missouri (18-13)0.2675


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 7.1924


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Bradley (14-16)16.514
42. Drake (10-18)8.6668
43. Illinois St (9-20)8.6366
50. Northern Iowa (14-15)8.1080
68. Indiana St (22-10)7.2829
90. Wichita St (11-17)6.6871
96. Evansville (17-12)6.2998
163. SW Missouri St (22-10)3.7645
166. Southern Ill (19-12)3.6596
209. Creighton (22-10)2.3036


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 6.8688


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Utah (21-9)19.325
24. Wyoming (18-12)11.596
84. Air Force (7-20)6.8141
120. BYU (19-10)5.3691
142. Colorado St (17-12)4.7127
148. Unlv (23-8)4.4352
168. San Diego St (4-22)3.5813
272. New Mexico (15-13)-0.884


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 6.0812


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
21. Elon (10-13)12.043
41. High Point (7-17)8.9025
75. Winthrop (17-9)7.0113
86. NC Asheville (9-19)6.7345
143. Liberty (10-14)4.7111
157. Charleston Sou (6-19)4.0353
193. Coast Carolina (9-18)2.8933
208. Radford (17-10)2.3185


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 5.9975


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
25. VA Commonwealth (14-14)10.676
31. James Madison (20-9)10.052
34. American (10-18)9.5070
39. William & Mary (9-17)8.9554
73. NC Wilmington (18-13)7.1056
107. Old Dominion (11-19)5.9512
135. George Mason (19-11)4.9177
174. East Carolina (8-18)3.4819
315. Richmond (18-12)-6.669


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 5.5089


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
23. Minnesota (12-16)11.633
46. Michigan St (32-7)8.3011
54. Michigan (15-13)7.9963
82. Illinois (22-10)6.8540
103. Indiana (20-9)6.0340
129. Penn St (15-15)5.0085
138. Wisconsin (22-14)4.8629
164. Northwestern (5-25)3.6814
196. Iowa (14-16)2.7709
212. Ohio St (23-7)2.2532
228. Purdue (23-10)1.2031


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 5.4913


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Rice (3-22)14.198
30. Hawaii (17-12)10.280
47. Texas El Paso (13-15)8.2772
71. San Jose St (11-15)7.1496
182. SMU (20-8)3.2499
195. TCU (17-14)2.8286
257. Tulsa (32-5)-0.131
287. Fresno St (24-10)-1.921


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 5.3133


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
29. Canisius (10-20)10.287
62. Loyola MD (7-21)7.6008
88. Niagara (17-12)6.7198
93. Rider (16-14)6.5679
128. Marist (14-14)5.0258
147. Fairfield (14-15)4.4578
149. Manhattan (12-15)4.3761
159. Siena (23-8)3.8680
165. St Peters (5-23)3.6652
244. Iona (20-11)0.5645


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 5.2962


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
18. Bowling Green (21-7)12.523
28. Buffalo (5-23)10.376
49. Northern Ill (11-15)8.1441
67. Western Mich (10-19)7.3076
81. Akron (16-11)6.8575
85. Kent (19-7)6.7580
127. Central Mich (5-23)5.0791
139. Ohio (20-13)4.8521
172. Marshall (19-8)3.5616
229. Miami Ohio (15-15)1.1984
235. Eastern Mich (13-13)0.9396
238. Ball St (21-9)0.7879
245. Toledo (18-13)0.4650


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 5.1971


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
12. Western KY (11-17)14.013
55. Denver (6-22)7.9689
114. Arkansas Lr (4-24)5.7334
153. Florida Intl (15-14)4.2502
156. South Alabama (20-10)4.0369
158. New Orleans (11-18)3.8963
162. Arkansas St (10-17)3.7834
200. Louisiana Tech (21-8)2.7340
247. Ul Lafayette (24-8)0.3576


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 4.9566


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
7. Uab (14-14)16.001
37. South Florida (17-13)9.3224
59. Tulane (20-10)7.7748
70. Louisville (18-12)7.1598
133. St Louis (18-14)4.9731
141. Memphis (14-16)4.7761
151. NC Charlotte (17-15)4.3648
161. Marquette (15-13)3.8403
205. Cincinnati (29-4)2.4824
221. DePaul (20-12)1.7691
281. SO Mississippi (17-12)-1.398
284. Houston (8-22)-1.585


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 4.8369


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
13. Montana St (7-14)13.473
76. Eastern Wash (12-9)6.9707
100. Northrn Arizona (16-11)6.1244
108. Sacramento St (8-16)5.9142
130. Portland St (12-13)5.0017
131. CS Northridge (18-10)5.0002
206. Idaho St (6-18)2.4431
259. Weber St (15-8)-0.178
278. Montana (14-11)-1.217


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 4.1310


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
22. Portland (7-18)11.793
45. St Marys CA (7-20)8.4650
115. Pepperdine (25-9)5.7172
177. Santa Clara (19-12)3.3283
192. Loyola Marymnt (0-25)2.8965
218. Gonzaga (26-9)1.9448
220. San Diego (18-10)1.8949
298. San Francisco (18-9)-2.992


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 4.0701


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
53. Tennessee St (7-22)8.0310
57. Tenn Martin (8-19)7.8527
78. Eastern Ill (15-12)6.9470
109. Eastern KY (4-22)5.8986
119. Tennessee Tech (14-12)5.4042
185. Austin Peay (15-10)3.0702
188. Middle Tenn St (13-13)2.9689
214. SE Missouri St (22-6)2.2361
239. Morehead St (5-18)0.7033
293. Murray St (22-9)-2.410


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 4.0333


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
19. Xavier (20-11)12.167
51. Temple (27-6)8.0719
74. Virginia Tech (16-15)7.0442
101. Geo Washington (15-15)6.0971
123. Duquesne (9-20)5.2678
140. Dayton (22-9)4.8155
167. LA Salle (11-17)3.6351
202. St Bonaventure (21-10)2.6747
216. St Josephs PA (13-16)2.1949
258. Fordham (14-15)-0.144
277. Rhode Island (5-25)-1.175
292. Massachusetts (16-15)-2.249


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 3.5928


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Southern Utah (14-12)20.116
66. Oral Roberts (12-16)7.3296
98. Mo Kansas City (14-13)6.1760
134. Valparaiso (16-13)4.9338
207. Chicago St (9-18)2.3400
269. Youngstown St (11-15)-0.476
289. Oakland (12-17)-1.940
296. Iupui (7-21)-2.892
302. Western Ill (6-22)-3.251


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.4106


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
17. Georgia Tech (13-17)12.572
44. Maryland (25-10)8.5666
105. NO Carolina St (17-12)6.0236
113. Virginia (19-11)5.7791
160. Wake Forest (17-14)3.8499
210. Florida St (12-17)2.2993
246. Clemson (10-20)0.3926
299. North Carolina (22-14)-3.048
313. Duke (29-5)-5.739


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 3.1617


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
92. Hofstra (24-7)6.6209
112. Vermont (16-12)5.7867
152. Maine (23-7)4.3306
169. Northeastern (7-20)3.5800
180. Delaware (24-7)3.2593
183. Hartford (10-19)3.1999
211. Boston U (6-21)2.2599
217. New Hampshire (3-25)2.1408
234. Drexel (13-17)1.0024
270. Towson (11-17)-0.563


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 3.0945


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
32. Wofford (12-15)9.9976
106. Geo Southern (14-12)5.9517
110. Furman (10-18)5.8170
122. Westrn Carolina (11-14)5.2765
154. Coll Of Charltn (20-6)4.1989
189. Chattanooga (9-18)2.9486
201. Davidson (12-13)2.7013
224. VMI (2-23)1.6189
232. East Tenn St (12-15)1.0451
250. Appalachian St (20-9)0.2822
271. NC Greensboro (14-13)-0.573
291. The Citadel (6-19)-2.129


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 2.9955


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
72. Santa Barbara (12-14)7.1478
97. Idaho (10-17)6.2836
126. Pacific (10-18)5.0832
145. North Texas (7-20)4.5692
176. Long Beach St (22-5)3.3413
178. Utah St (24-6)3.2865
179. CS Fullerton (8-18)3.2775
190. New Mexico St (21-9)2.9084
197. Nevada (8-20)2.7653
263. Boise St (11-15)-0.234
275. Cal Poly (7-18)-0.948
282. UC Irvine (13-14)-1.533


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 2.8881


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
36. TX Pan American (8-14)9.3478
55. Denver (6-22)7.9689
95. Centenary (7-16)6.4229
254. Belmont (4-20)2.2282
297. Albany NY (7-16)-2.906
306. Stony Brook (5-21)-3.505


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 2.8795


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
35. Washington St (5-22)9.4476
56. USC (15-14)7.8930
80. Arizona (27-7)6.9179
121. Arizona St (17-12)5.3533
187. Oregon St (11-16)2.9879
236. UCLA (21-12)0.9011
243. Oregon (21-8)0.6049
264. Washington (9-20)-0.316
286. California (16-14)-1.662
303. Stanford (26-4)-3.331


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.2716


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
20. Alcorn St (17-10)12.158
58. Miss Valley St (6-19)7.8189
155. Ark Pine Bluff (4-19)4.1369
181. Southern (16-10)3.2538
233. Grambling (0-27)1.0444
252. Jackson St (16-15)0.0773
253. Prairie View (6-19)0.0038
294. Alabama St (9-14)-2.445
312. Texas Southern (10-12)-5.603


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 2.1534


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
61. Syracuse (26-6)7.6536
65. Villanova (19-12)7.4108
116. St Johns (25-8)5.6723
171. West Virginia (14-14)3.5692
191. Georgetown (17-14)2.8991
203. Pittsburgh (13-15)2.6213
204. Rutgers (15-15)2.5143
223. Notre Dame (18-14)1.6911
231. Boston College (11-19)1.0705
260. Providence (10-19)-0.200
265. Connecticut (25-10)-0.317
290. Seton Hall (22-10)-1.959
309. Miami Fla (23-11)-4.631


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 1.3712


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
79. Lamar (15-15)6.9310
87. Sam Houston (19-7)6.7247
136. Northwestern St (15-12)4.9161
150. Tex San Antonio (11-12)4.3720
194. Ul Monroe (17-9)2.8705
230. McNeese St (6-21)1.0939
261. SE Louisiana (8-17)-0.218
266. SW Texas St (10-16)-0.318
268. Nicholls St (9-17)-0.475
276. Texas Arlington (13-12)-1.031
318. Stephen Austin (4-19)-9.781


TRANS AMERICA ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.2221


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
64. Troy St (16-11)7.4194
125. Fla Atlantic (1-27)5.1923
132. Jacksonville (7-18)4.9792
146. Central Florida (12-18)4.5385
249. Jacksonville St (16-8)0.3146
262. Samford (19-11)-0.222
267. Stetson (12-15)-0.340
300. Georgia St (16-12)-3.093
301. Mercer (10-21)-3.103
305. Campbell (12-14)-3.462


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.1965


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
99. NO Carolina A&T (14-13)6.1556
111. Morgan St (5-24)5.7927
124. Howard (1-27)5.2033
184. Florida A&M (9-21)3.1306
186. Delaware St (6-22)2.9972
215. Bethune Cookman (13-13)2.2323
241. SO Carolina St (19-14)0.6627
280. MD Eastrn Shore (11-17)-1.380
304. Coppin St (15-15)-3.423
307. Hampton (17-12)-4.073
308. Norfolk St (11-16)-4.135


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 0.9442


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
63. Yale (7-20)7.4470
118. Dartmouth (7-18)5.4393
213. Brown (8-19)2.2385
219. Princeton (18-10)1.9006
242. Pennsylvania (21-8)0.6574
283. Harvard (11-15)-1.573
295. Columbia (12-14)-2.644
314. Cornell (9-17)-5.910


PATRIOT AVERAGE = -0.265


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
137. Navy (21-6)4.8921
198. Army (3-23)2.7611
222. Lehigh (6-21)1.7404
256. Bucknell (16-11)-0.069
279. Lafayette (22-7)-1.375
310. Holy Cross (10-18)-4.881
311. Colgate (11-16)-4.927


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.569


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
173. St Francis PA (8-18)3.5518
225. Monmouth NJ (12-16)1.5368
227. Central Conn (25-6)1.4777
248. Robert Morris (17-12)0.3491
255. Wagner (10-16)-0.028
273. Mt St Marys (9-18)-0.901
285. Fair Dickinson (16-11)-1.654
288. St Francis NY (16-13)-1.934
316. Liu Brooklyn (7-18)-7.521
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