NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)
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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Downward Stability

By ranking
Last Updated Tue Apr 04 17:41:44 EDT 2000

Home Court Advantage = 4.0236

MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 3.4244


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. SW Missouri St (22-10)4.0892
5. Creighton (22-10)4.0726
8. Southern Ill (19-12)3.9768
13. Indiana St (22-10)3.8387
35. Bradley (14-16)3.6005
77. Northern Iowa (14-15)3.3352
99. Evansville (17-12)3.1987
188. Wichita St (11-17)2.8259
216. Illinois St (9-20)2.6872
229. Drake (10-18)2.6187


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 3.3192


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. St Louis (18-14)3.9001
26. Louisville (18-12)3.7207
31. DePaul (20-12)3.6625
32. NC Charlotte (17-15)3.6553
46. Memphis (14-16)3.5115
59. SO Mississippi (17-12)3.4193
68. Tulane (20-10)3.3693
71. South Florida (17-13)3.3623
149. Marquette (15-13)2.9906
160. Cincinnati (29-4)2.9487
191. Uab (14-14)2.8136
247. Houston (8-22)2.4759


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 3.3105


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Miami Fla (23-11)4.0617
7. Connecticut (25-10)4.0434
15. Villanova (19-12)3.8261
29. St Johns (25-8)3.6974
52. Rutgers (15-15)3.4546
61. Georgetown (17-14)3.3965
66. Seton Hall (22-10)3.3702
98. Syracuse (26-6)3.1995
126. West Virginia (14-14)3.0890
144. Notre Dame (18-14)2.9974
181. Pittsburgh (13-15)2.8621
224. Boston College (11-19)2.6497
250. Providence (10-19)2.3888


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.2820


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Florida (29-8)4.1592
14. Kentucky (22-10)3.8271
21. Arkansas (19-15)3.7671
34. Auburn (23-10)3.6150
36. LSU (28-6)3.5973
65. Tennessee (24-7)3.3751
111. South Carolina (15-17)3.1459
137. Vanderbilt (19-10)3.0358
178. Mississippi (16-13)2.8701
180. Mississippi St (13-17)2.8671
192. Alabama (12-16)2.8050
255. Georgia (10-20)2.3199


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 3.2628


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
12. Richmond (18-12)3.8775
25. George Mason (19-11)3.7221
28. NC Wilmington (18-13)3.7033
41. James Madison (20-9)3.5420
117. Old Dominion (11-19)3.1137
127. VA Commonwealth (14-14)3.0842
145. American (10-18)2.9962
220. William & Mary (9-17)2.6781
225. East Carolina (8-18)2.6481


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 3.2225


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
19. Massachusetts (16-15)3.7822
22. Virginia Tech (16-15)3.7620
23. St Bonaventure (21-10)3.7427
30. Dayton (22-9)3.6892
39. Geo Washington (15-15)3.5594
60. Xavier (20-11)3.4148
64. St Josephs PA (13-16)3.3806
94. Temple (27-6)3.2155
102. Fordham (14-15)3.1877
189. LA Salle (11-17)2.8254
261. Duquesne (9-20)2.2979
298. Rhode Island (5-25)1.8131


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.2171


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. North Carolina (22-14)4.2530
17. Maryland (25-10)3.8112
49. Wake Forest (17-14)3.4654
91. Virginia (19-11)3.2308
101. Duke (29-5)3.1914
167. NO Carolina St (17-12)2.9224
195. Florida St (12-17)2.7743
201. Georgia Tech (13-17)2.7497
240. Clemson (10-20)2.5553


MIDWESTERN COLLEGIATE CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.1647


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
43. Wisc Green Bay (14-16)3.5265
51. Butler (23-9)3.4607
57. Detroit (18-12)3.4257
131. Cleveland St (15-14)3.0590
140. Wisc Milwaukee (14-14)3.0189
154. Wright St (11-17)2.9655
165. Loyola Chi (14-14)2.9315
166. Illinois Chi (10-20)2.9294


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 3.1252


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Wisconsin (22-14)4.4482
9. Michigan St (32-7)3.9073
18. Purdue (23-10)3.7867
33. Illinois (22-10)3.6467
72. Indiana (20-9)3.3419
141. Iowa (14-16)3.0138
190. Ohio St (23-7)2.8191
213. Penn St (15-15)2.6984
221. Michigan (15-13)2.6638
245. Minnesota (12-16)2.4936
303. Northwestern (5-25)1.5572


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.0395


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
24. Iona (20-11)3.7381
58. Siena (23-8)3.4232
67. Rider (16-14)3.3699
70. Niagara (17-12)3.3631
79. Marist (14-14)3.3193
120. Fairfield (14-15)3.1037
147. Manhattan (12-15)2.9927
150. Canisius (10-20)2.9790
271. Loyola MD (7-21)2.2076
291. St Peters (5-23)1.8981


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.0284


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
16. Ohio (20-13)3.8140
20. Miami Ohio (15-15)3.7728
37. Ball St (21-9)3.5782
42. Toledo (18-13)3.5401
97. Bowling Green (21-7)3.2053
108. Kent (19-7)3.1562
123. Marshall (19-8)3.0921
156. Northern Ill (11-15)2.9624
161. Akron (16-11)2.9372
164. Eastern Mich (13-13)2.9323
204. Western Mich (10-19)2.7359
279. Central Mich (5-23)2.1639
307. Buffalo (5-23)1.4786


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 2.9826


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
45. Valparaiso (16-13)3.5184
87. Oral Roberts (12-16)3.2655
90. Southern Utah (14-12)3.2384
106. Oakland (12-17)3.1626
113. Mo Kansas City (14-13)3.1339
151. Youngstown St (11-15)2.9745
193. Chicago St (9-18)2.7760
227. Iupui (7-21)2.6469
283. Western Ill (6-22)2.1271


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.9493


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
55. St Francis NY (16-13)3.4391
62. Robert Morris (17-12)3.3930
84. Fair Dickinson (16-11)3.2872
109. Monmouth NJ (12-16)3.1556
116. Central Conn (25-6)3.1155
176. Wagner (10-16)2.8762
243. St Francis PA (8-18)2.5169
244. Mt St Marys (9-18)2.5078
269. Liu Brooklyn (7-18)2.2520


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 2.9234


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. UCLA (21-12)3.9012
73. Arizona (27-7)3.3414
74. Oregon (21-8)3.3396
104. Arizona St (17-12)3.1818
114. California (16-14)3.1256
152. USC (15-14)2.9686
226. Oregon St (11-16)2.6472
233. Washington (9-20)2.5942
239. Stanford (26-4)2.5616
302. Washington St (5-22)1.5731


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 2.8674


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
48. Texas (24-9)3.4781
50. Kansas (23-10)3.4607
86. Missouri (18-13)3.2675
92. Oklahoma (27-7)3.2257
103. Oklahoma St (26-7)3.1828
119. Colorado (17-13)3.1087
132. Iowa St (29-5)3.0561
199. Nebraska (11-19)2.7508
242. Baylor (13-15)2.5367
270. Kansas St (9-19)2.2165
275. Texas Tech (11-15)2.1961
290. Texas A&M (7-20)1.9291


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 2.8297


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
47. Ul Lafayette (24-8)3.4942
54. South Alabama (20-10)3.4490
56. Florida Intl (15-14)3.4370
129. Western KY (11-17)3.0646
133. Louisiana Tech (21-8)3.0513
179. New Orleans (11-18)2.8676
232. Arkansas St (10-17)2.6070
287. Denver (6-22)2.0533
308. Arkansas Lr (4-24)1.4436


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 2.8236


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
44. Lamar (15-15)3.5233
53. Northwestern St (15-12)3.4534
112. SW Texas St (10-16)3.1378
124. Texas Arlington (13-12)3.0905
139. Sam Houston (19-7)3.0328
142. Ul Monroe (17-9)3.0116
198. Tex San Antonio (11-12)2.7639
214. Nicholls St (9-17)2.6947
254. SE Louisiana (8-17)2.3289
274. McNeese St (6-21)2.1963
296. Stephen Austin (4-19)1.8268


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 2.8126


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
80. Wyoming (18-12)3.3156
81. BYU (19-10)3.3125
89. Colorado St (17-12)3.2537
100. Utah (21-9)3.1937
128. New Mexico (15-13)3.0776
177. Unlv (23-8)2.8725
278. Air Force (7-20)2.1662
312. San Diego St (4-22)1.3089


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.8103


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
38. Fresno St (24-10)3.5723
75. TCU (17-14)3.3373
110. Tulsa (32-5)3.1475
163. Texas El Paso (13-15)2.9337
187. SMU (20-8)2.8325
200. Hawaii (17-12)2.7503
236. San Jose St (11-15)2.5804
311. Rice (3-22)1.3285


TRANS AMERICA ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.7681


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
82. Central Florida (12-18)3.3004
83. Samford (19-11)3.2972
93. Troy St (16-11)3.2187
118. Georgia St (16-12)3.1115
135. Mercer (10-21)3.0473
172. Jacksonville St (16-8)2.9129
175. Stetson (12-15)2.8781
183. Campbell (12-14)2.8524
259. Jacksonville (7-18)2.3028
316. Fla Atlantic (1-27)0.7595


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 2.7557


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
63. Northrn Arizona (16-11)3.3921
96. CS Northridge (18-10)3.2066
115. Montana (14-11)3.1204
138. Weber St (15-8)3.0344
146. Portland St (12-13)2.9956
231. Eastern Wash (12-9)2.6123
263. Sacramento St (8-16)2.2959
272. Idaho St (6-18)2.2017
289. Montana St (7-14)1.9426


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 2.7350


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
85. Furman (10-18)3.2734
107. Appalachian St (20-9)3.1575
122. Coll Of Charltn (20-6)3.0970
125. East Tenn St (12-15)3.0902
155. Geo Southern (14-12)2.9624
174. NC Greensboro (14-13)2.8934
182. Chattanooga (9-18)2.8618
206. Davidson (12-13)2.7244
207. Wofford (12-15)2.7116
210. Westrn Carolina (11-14)2.7096
285. The Citadel (6-19)2.1014
314. VMI (2-23)1.2377


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 2.7058


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
105. New Mexico St (21-9)3.1650
153. Utah St (24-6)2.9672
168. Santa Barbara (12-14)2.9220
171. UC Irvine (13-14)2.9132
173. Long Beach St (22-5)2.9058
196. Boise St (11-15)2.7685
205. Idaho (10-17)2.7347
218. Nevada (8-20)2.6797
223. Pacific (10-18)2.6510
249. Cal Poly (7-18)2.3975
273. CS Fullerton (8-18)2.1981
277. North Texas (7-20)2.1664


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 2.6301


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
40. Murray St (22-9)3.5488
136. Eastern Ill (15-12)3.0397
157. Austin Peay (15-10)2.9573
162. Middle Tenn St (13-13)2.9345
169. Tennessee Tech (14-12)2.9205
186. SE Missouri St (22-6)2.8432
256. Tenn Martin (8-19)2.3192
264. Tennessee St (7-22)2.2850
292. Morehead St (5-18)1.8974
304. Eastern KY (4-22)1.5555


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.5811


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
69. SO Carolina St (19-14)3.3634
76. Hampton (17-12)3.3359
143. Coppin St (15-15)3.0103
158. NO Carolina A&T (14-13)2.9528
197. Bethune Cookman (13-13)2.7643
202. Norfolk St (11-16)2.7497
203. Florida A&M (9-21)2.7449
237. MD Eastrn Shore (11-17)2.5754
276. Delaware St (6-22)2.1679
294. Morgan St (5-24)1.8594
315. Howard (1-27)0.8683


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 2.5436


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
95. Radford (17-10)3.2099
215. Coast Carolina (9-18)2.6922
217. Winthrop (17-9)2.6860
228. Liberty (10-14)2.6434
235. NC Asheville (9-19)2.5869
252. Elon (10-13)2.3491
284. High Point (7-17)2.1167
286. Charleston Sou (6-19)2.0644


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 2.5434


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
130. Vermont (16-12)3.0596
148. Drexel (13-17)2.9910
159. Delaware (24-7)2.9519
208. Maine (23-7)2.7107
212. Towson (11-17)2.7050
222. Hartford (10-19)2.6592
241. Hofstra (24-7)2.5505
253. Northeastern (7-20)2.3403
280. Boston U (6-21)2.1608
313. New Hampshire (3-25)1.3044


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 2.4815


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
184. Harvard (11-15)2.8450
209. Columbia (12-14)2.7100
234. Cornell (9-17)2.5924
246. Brown (8-19)2.4787
251. Princeton (18-10)2.3768
258. Dartmouth (7-18)2.3047
265. Yale (7-20)2.2762
267. Pennsylvania (21-8)2.2684


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.4014


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
27. Gonzaga (26-9)3.7160
78. Pepperdine (25-9)3.3340
121. Santa Clara (19-12)3.1016
238. San Francisco (18-9)2.5712
260. San Diego (18-10)2.2991
293. St Marys CA (7-20)1.8749
295. Portland (7-18)1.8427
318. Loyola Marymnt (0-25)0.4718


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 2.3682


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
185. Bucknell (16-11)2.8433
211. Colgate (11-16)2.7050
219. Holy Cross (10-18)2.6796
248. Navy (21-6)2.4310
266. Lafayette (22-7)2.2737
281. Lehigh (6-21)2.1410
306. Army (3-23)1.5035


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.1110


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
88. Jackson St (16-15)3.2583
134. Southern (16-10)3.0486
230. Alcorn St (17-10)2.6173
257. Alabama St (9-14)2.3150
268. Texas Southern (10-12)2.2639
297. Prairie View (6-19)1.8131
300. Miss Valley St (6-19)1.7319
309. Ark Pine Bluff (4-19)1.3712
317. Grambling (0-27)0.5794


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 1.8593


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
282. TX Pan American (8-14)2.1317
287. Denver (6-22)2.0533
288. Albany NY (7-16)2.0258
299. Centenary (7-16)1.7847
301. Stony Brook (5-21)1.6307
305. Belmont (4-20)1.5297
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