NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Strength of Schedule

By ranking
Last Updated Tue Apr 04 17:41:51 EDT 2000

Home Court Advantage = 4.0236

BIG TEN AVERAGE = 0.2519


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Northwestern (5-25)0.4142
7. Iowa (14-16)0.3741
12. Minnesota (12-16)0.3396
18. Michigan (15-13)0.2968
20. Penn St (15-15)0.2878
24. Wisconsin (22-14)0.2570
52. Indiana (20-9)0.2014
63. Purdue (23-10)0.1915
72. Illinois (22-10)0.1711
100. Ohio St (23-7)0.1326
119. Michigan St (32-7)0.1053


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 0.2311


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Washington St (5-22)0.4098
6. Washington (9-20)0.4031
17. Oregon St (11-16)0.3046
38. USC (15-14)0.2217
39. UCLA (21-12)0.2200
41. California (16-14)0.2156
56. Arizona St (17-12)0.1986
78. Oregon (21-8)0.1642
106. Arizona (27-7)0.1210
159. Stanford (26-4)0.0520


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.2054


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
13. Florida St (12-17)0.3323
19. Clemson (10-20)0.2901
30. North Carolina (22-14)0.2397
36. Wake Forest (17-14)0.2270
40. Georgia Tech (13-17)0.2198
80. NO Carolina St (17-12)0.1619
81. Virginia (19-11)0.1605
97. Maryland (25-10)0.1387
143. Duke (29-5)0.0783


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.2031


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. Georgia (10-20)0.3673
22. Alabama (12-16)0.2803
25. South Carolina (15-17)0.2557
43. Mississippi St (13-17)0.2151
46. Kentucky (22-10)0.2133
54. Arkansas (19-15)0.2009
62. Mississippi (16-13)0.1939
65. Auburn (23-10)0.1904
73. Vanderbilt (19-10)0.1692
99. Tennessee (24-7)0.1355
103. Florida (29-8)0.1236
131. LSU (28-6)0.0917


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 0.2016


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Kansas St (9-19)0.3684
15. Texas A&M (7-20)0.3247
23. Nebraska (11-19)0.2633
26. Texas Tech (11-15)0.2524
44. Missouri (18-13)0.2145
66. Baylor (13-15)0.1883
71. Kansas (23-10)0.1803
83. Colorado (17-13)0.1592
86. Texas (24-9)0.1541
109. Oklahoma St (26-7)0.1188
123. Oklahoma (27-7)0.1001
129. Iowa St (29-5)0.0951


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 0.1862


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
14. Houston (8-22)0.3315
31. NC Charlotte (17-15)0.2370
33. St Louis (18-14)0.2327
37. Uab (14-14)0.2233
48. Marquette (15-13)0.2111
58. Memphis (14-16)0.1978
67. DePaul (20-12)0.1864
79. Louisville (18-12)0.1624
82. SO Mississippi (17-12)0.1602
113. South Florida (17-13)0.1143
118. Tulane (20-10)0.1067
150. Cincinnati (29-4)0.0706


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 0.1755


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
28. Boston College (11-19)0.2426
29. Providence (10-19)0.2401
32. West Virginia (14-14)0.2349
55. Pittsburgh (13-15)0.1989
60. Georgetown (17-14)0.1949
69. Notre Dame (18-14)0.1829
76. Villanova (19-12)0.1671
85. Seton Hall (22-10)0.1552
91. St Johns (25-8)0.1487
94. Connecticut (25-10)0.1424
95. Miami Fla (23-11)0.1392
98. Rutgers (15-15)0.1379
128. Syracuse (26-6)0.0969


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 0.1734


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Rhode Island (5-25)0.4565
42. St Josephs PA (13-16)0.2152
49. LA Salle (11-17)0.2098
57. Geo Washington (15-15)0.1978
59. Duquesne (9-20)0.1968
75. Massachusetts (16-15)0.1684
77. Fordham (14-15)0.1654
93. St Bonaventure (21-10)0.1424
115. Virginia Tech (16-15)0.1128
142. Dayton (22-9)0.0787
145. Xavier (20-11)0.0737
154. Temple (27-6)0.0636


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.1688


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Buffalo (5-23)0.3536
11. Central Mich (5-23)0.3487
21. Western Mich (10-19)0.2808
50. Northern Ill (11-15)0.2081
68. Eastern Mich (13-13)0.1839
70. Miami Ohio (15-15)0.1824
104. Akron (16-11)0.1224
105. Ohio (20-13)0.1217
110. Toledo (18-13)0.1184
111. Ball St (21-9)0.1179
151. Bowling Green (21-7)0.0700
156. Kent (19-7)0.0571
169. Marshall (19-8)0.0297


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.1608


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Loyola Marymnt (0-25)0.4995
34. St Marys CA (7-20)0.2314
61. Portland (7-18)0.1946
101. Santa Clara (19-12)0.1310
137. Gonzaga (26-9)0.0845
141. Pepperdine (25-9)0.0796
160. San Diego (18-10)0.0497
175. San Francisco (18-9)0.0162


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.1383


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Rice (3-22)0.4069
47. San Jose St (11-15)0.2121
112. Texas El Paso (13-15)0.1158
117. TCU (17-14)0.1079
120. Hawaii (17-12)0.1049
130. Fresno St (24-10)0.0935
161. SMU (20-8)0.0489
174. Tulsa (32-5)0.0166


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 0.1293


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
35. Illinois St (9-20)0.2290
64. Drake (10-18)0.1908
87. Bradley (14-16)0.1534
88. Wichita St (11-17)0.1523
92. Northern Iowa (14-15)0.1436
122. Southern Ill (19-12)0.1012
125. Indiana St (22-10)0.0984
138. SW Missouri St (22-10)0.0842
148. Creighton (22-10)0.0733
152. Evansville (17-12)0.0666


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 0.1275


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
16. San Diego St (4-22)0.3164
53. Air Force (7-20)0.2011
116. New Mexico (15-13)0.1106
121. Colorado St (17-12)0.1020
134. Utah (21-9)0.0896
135. BYU (19-10)0.0857
139. Wyoming (18-12)0.0833
168. Unlv (23-8)0.0314


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 0.1027


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
45. Idaho St (6-18)0.2135
51. Montana St (7-14)0.2050
74. Sacramento St (8-16)0.1686
126. Eastern Wash (12-9)0.0981
147. Northrn Arizona (16-11)0.0733
149. Portland St (12-13)0.0720
157. CS Northridge (18-10)0.0538
165. Montana (14-11)0.0372
179. Weber St (15-8)0.0029


MIDWESTERN COLLEGIATE CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.0555


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
102. Illinois Chi (10-20)0.1303
107. Wisc Green Bay (14-16)0.1205
132. Wisc Milwaukee (14-14)0.0898
133. Wright St (11-17)0.0897
167. Detroit (18-12)0.0317
170. Loyola Chi (14-14)0.0270
171. Cleveland St (15-14)0.0261
212. Butler (23-9)-0.071


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 0.0408


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
27. North Texas (7-20)0.2486
84. Idaho (10-17)0.1588
89. Nevada (8-20)0.1513
127. Cal Poly (7-18)0.0979
162. Boise St (11-15)0.0426
163. Pacific (10-18)0.0410
173. CS Fullerton (8-18)0.0168
176. New Mexico St (21-9)0.0129
185. Utah St (24-6)-0.006
188. Santa Barbara (12-14)-0.025
193. UC Irvine (13-14)-0.035
282. Long Beach St (22-5)-0.212


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 0.0217


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
144. Denver (6-22)0.0750
146. Centenary (7-16)0.0734
153. Belmont (4-20)0.0651
158. Stony Brook (5-21)0.0522
177. TX Pan American (8-14)0.0102
252. Albany NY (7-16)-0.145


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = -0.026


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
90. Eastern KY (4-22)0.1494
96. Tenn Martin (8-19)0.1392
124. Tennessee St (7-22)0.0997
164. Morehead St (5-18)0.0399
204. Middle Tenn St (13-13)-0.049
206. Eastern Ill (15-12)-0.052
238. Tennessee Tech (14-12)-0.125
246. Murray St (22-9)-0.135
251. Austin Peay (15-10)-0.145
277. SE Missouri St (22-6)-0.184


COLONIAL AVERAGE = -0.030


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
136. William & Mary (9-17)0.0846
140. East Carolina (8-18)0.0802
181. Old Dominion (11-19)-0.003
184. VA Commonwealth (14-14)-0.006
190. NC Wilmington (18-13)-0.027
203. American (10-18)-0.048
224. Richmond (18-12)-0.095
235. George Mason (19-11)-0.121
247. James Madison (20-9)-0.137


SUN BELT AVERAGE = -0.046


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
144. Denver (6-22)0.0750
155. Arkansas St (10-17)0.0616
166. Arkansas Lr (4-24)0.0345
180. Western KY (11-17)-0.001
189. New Orleans (11-18)-0.026
216. Florida Intl (15-14)-0.081
255. South Alabama (20-10)-0.149
261. Louisiana Tech (21-8)-0.153
273. Ul Lafayette (24-8)-0.181


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = -0.060


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
172. Western Ill (6-22)0.0218
182. Oakland (12-17)-0.005
183. Chicago St (9-18)-0.006
186. Iupui (7-21)-0.012
198. Youngstown St (11-15)-0.042
217. Oral Roberts (12-16)-0.082
243. Valparaiso (16-13)-0.130
244. Mo Kansas City (14-13)-0.133
254. Southern Utah (14-12)-0.149


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = -0.090


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
114. VMI (2-23)0.1132
187. The Citadel (6-19)-0.025
195. Wofford (12-15)-0.036
208. Westrn Carolina (11-14)-0.057
211. Chattanooga (9-18)-0.069
213. Furman (10-18)-0.072
220. Davidson (12-13)-0.086
227. East Tenn St (12-15)-0.107
233. Geo Southern (14-12)-0.118
237. NC Greensboro (14-13)-0.122
258. Appalachian St (20-9)-0.150
313. Coll Of Charltn (20-6)-0.351


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = -0.103


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
178. McNeese St (6-21)0.0093
194. Stephen Austin (4-19)-0.036
199. Nicholls St (9-17)-0.043
201. SE Louisiana (8-17)-0.046
221. Lamar (15-15)-0.088
222. Tex San Antonio (11-12)-0.091
234. SW Texas St (10-16)-0.119
256. Texas Arlington (13-12)-0.149
266. Northwestern St (15-12)-0.167
280. Ul Monroe (17-9)-0.197
281. Sam Houston (19-7)-0.203


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.140


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
191. St Peters (5-23)-0.033
207. Loyola MD (7-21)-0.056
214. Canisius (10-20)-0.073
218. Fairfield (14-15)-0.084
264. Niagara (17-12)-0.159
267. Rider (16-14)-0.173
269. Marist (14-14)-0.177
270. Manhattan (12-15)-0.177
274. Iona (20-11)-0.181
303. Siena (23-8)-0.288


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = -0.141


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
197. Charleston Sou (6-19)-0.041
209. NC Asheville (9-19)-0.061
210. High Point (7-17)-0.066
232. Coast Carolina (9-18)-0.116
257. Elon (10-13)-0.150
259. Liberty (10-14)-0.152
294. Radford (17-10)-0.241
307. Winthrop (17-9)-0.298


TRANS AMERICA ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.159


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
108. Fla Atlantic (1-27)0.1201
219. Mercer (10-21)-0.086
239. Campbell (12-14)-0.125
245. Central Florida (12-18)-0.135
253. Jacksonville (7-18)-0.145
272. Stetson (12-15)-0.180
291. Samford (19-11)-0.227
295. Georgia St (16-12)-0.250
297. Troy St (16-11)-0.270
305. Jacksonville St (16-8)-0.290


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = -0.169


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
230. Yale (7-20)-0.114
236. Dartmouth (7-18)-0.122
249. Brown (8-19)-0.143
263. Pennsylvania (21-8)-0.157
271. Cornell (9-17)-0.179
278. Princeton (18-10)-0.187
288. Columbia (12-14)-0.222
290. Harvard (11-15)-0.225


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = -0.198


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
200. New Hampshire (3-25)-0.044
223. Boston U (6-21)-0.093
240. Northeastern (7-20)-0.127
248. Drexel (13-17)-0.142
250. Hartford (10-19)-0.144
276. Towson (11-17)-0.183
293. Vermont (16-12)-0.241
302. Hofstra (24-7)-0.287
311. Delaware (24-7)-0.331
316. Maine (23-7)-0.386


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.200


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
196. Grambling (0-27)-0.036
226. Ark Pine Bluff (4-19)-0.105
228. Prairie View (6-19)-0.111
241. Miss Valley St (6-19)-0.128
284. Alabama St (9-14)-0.213
292. Jackson St (16-15)-0.234
306. Texas Southern (10-12)-0.295
310. Southern (16-10)-0.316
314. Alcorn St (17-10)-0.358


PATRIOT AVERAGE = -0.205


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
202. Army (3-23)-0.047
215. Lehigh (6-21)-0.074
275. Colgate (11-16)-0.183
279. Holy Cross (10-18)-0.187
285. Bucknell (16-11)-0.215
309. Lafayette (22-7)-0.306
318. Navy (21-6)-0.426


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.210


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
225. Mt St Marys (9-18)-0.100
229. Liu Brooklyn (7-18)-0.114
242. St Francis PA (8-18)-0.130
262. Monmouth NJ (12-16)-0.154
286. Wagner (10-16)-0.215
289. St Francis NY (16-13)-0.225
296. Robert Morris (17-12)-0.254
304. Fair Dickinson (16-11)-0.288
317. Central Conn (25-6)-0.408


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.220


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
205. Howard (1-27)-0.051
231. Morgan St (5-24)-0.116
260. Florida A&M (9-21)-0.153
268. Delaware St (6-22)-0.176
283. Norfolk St (11-16)-0.212
287. MD Eastrn Shore (11-17)-0.216
298. Bethune Cookman (13-13)-0.274
300. Coppin St (15-15)-0.276
301. SO Carolina St (19-14)-0.281
308. NO Carolina A&T (14-13)-0.305
315. Hampton (17-12)-0.363
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