NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

Recent Articles:
Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)
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March Madness Performance: 2 Myths Dispelled
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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.
HAWAII
Predictions for Future Games
Game Breakdown
RPI Breakdown

Record: 17-12
Power Rating: 79.546
Ranking: 105

0-2 v #1-25
1-4 v #26-50
3-3 v #51-100
4-3 v #101-200
9-0 v #201-318

Home Ratings (14-4): 81.060 (94)
0-1 v #1-25
1-2 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
4-0 v #101-200
8-0 v #201-318
League Ratings: 4-3 77.734
Non-League Ratings: 10-1 83.195
Last Ten Ratings: 2-2 77.406

Away Ratings (1-7): 70.734 (207)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
0-3 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-318
League Ratings: 1-6 72.093
Non-League Ratings: 0-1 59.046
Last Ten Ratings: 0-4 72.046

Neutral Ratings (2-1): 85.656 (49)
0-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
2-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-318
League Ratings: 1-1 84.749
Non-League Ratings: 1-0 84.421
Last Ten Ratings: 1-1 84.749

League Ratings (6-10): 77.048 (138)
0-2 v #1-25
0-3 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
3-3 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-318
Home Ratings: 4-3 77.734
Away Ratings: 1-6 72.093
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 84.749
Last Ten Ratings: 3-7 78.136

Non-League Ratings (11-2): 84.617 (54)
0-0 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
2-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
7-0 v #201-318
Home Ratings: 10-1 83.195
Away Ratings: 0-1 59.046
Neutral Ratings: 1-0 84.421
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 79.546

Wins Ratings: 80.642 (102)
0-2 v #1-25
1-4 v #26-50
3-3 v #51-100
4-3 v #101-200
9-0 v #201-318
Home Ratings: 14-4 81.904
Away Ratings: 1-7 70.704
Neutral Ratings: 2-1 88.259
Last Ten Ratings: 3-7 77.021

Points Ratings: 78.394 (109)
0-2 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
4-7 v #51-100
4-2 v #101-200
8-0 v #201-318
Home Ratings: 14-4 80.034
Away Ratings: 1-7 71.003
Neutral Ratings: 2-1 82.730
League Ratings: 6-10 76.618
Non-League Ratings: 11-2 81.820
Last Ten Ratings: 3-7 76.898

Last Ten Ratings (3-7): 76.839 (140)
0-4 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-318
Home Ratings: 2-2 77.406
Away Ratings: 0-4 72.046
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 84.749
League Ratings: 3-7 78.136
Non-League Ratings: 0-0 79.546

Home Advantage: 10.280 (30)


Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0713 (109)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1956 (116)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.3216 (121)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.4387 (124)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.5717 (138)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.7859 (163)

Upward Stability: 3.0432 (125)

Downward Stability: 2.7503 (200)

RPI
RPI: 0.5241 (115)
0-2 v #1-25
1-3 v #26-50
4-5 v #51-100
4-2 v #101-200
8-0 v #201-318


RPI Home (14-4): 0.5467 (137)
1-0 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
3-2 v #51-100
5-0 v #101-200
5-0 v #201-318


RPI Away (1-7): 0.4333 (205)
0-2 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-318


RPI Neutral (2-1): 0.6304 (31)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-318


RPI League (6-10): 0.5073 (137)
0-5 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
2-3 v #51-100
2-2 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-318


RPI Non-League (11-2): 0.5448 (84)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
3-1 v #51-100
3-1 v #101-200
5-0 v #201-318


RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5034 (141)



GAMES
Date Site Score Opponent
11/19/1999Home W 84-68 vs. #226 Tenn Martin
11/21/1999Home L 49-53 vs. #43 Bowling Green
11/26/1999Home W 89-63 vs. #215 William & Mary
11/28/1999Home W 78-61 vs. #306 VMI
12/4/1999Home W 77-59 vs. #308 Prairie View
12/5/1999Home W 72-42 vs. #211 Pacific
12/8/1999Away L 56-85 vs. #60 USC
12/20/1999Home W 87-60 vs. #316 Fla Atlantic
12/21/1999Home W 72-58 vs. #273 Western Ill
12/22/1999Home W 73-53 vs. #56 Creighton
12/27/1999Home W 67-63 vs. #112 Bradley
12/29/1999Neut W 76-74 vs. #68 Colorado
12/31/1999Home W 66-63 vs. #28 Oregon
1/8/2000Away L 83-95 vs. #133 Texas El Paso
1/13/2000Home L 73-79 vs. #59 SMU
1/15/2000Home W 90-86 vs. #101 TCU
1/20/2000Away W 68-65 vs. #268 Rice
1/22/2000Away L 78-100 vs. #8 Tulsa
1/29/2000Home W 84-75 vs. #138 San Jose St
2/3/2000Home W 85-76 vs. #133 Texas El Paso
2/5/2000Home L 77-85 vs. #41 Fresno St
2/10/2000Away L 96-106 vs. #101 TCU
2/12/2000Away L 73-89 vs. #59 SMU
2/17/2000Home L 61-75 vs. #8 Tulsa
2/19/2000Home W 90-63 vs. #268 Rice
2/26/2000Away L 50-67 vs. #138 San Jose St
3/4/2000Away L 69-79 vs. #41 Fresno St
3/9/2000Neut W 87-82 vs. #59 SMU
3/10/2000Neut L 100-103 vs. #41 Fresno St

FUTURE GAMES
Date Site Win ProbabilityMargin Opponent Opp. Rating (Opp. Specific Rating)
Consistency Correlation is: 1.6900000000000006
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