NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

BROWN
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 15-12
Power Rating: 71.145
Ranking: 211

0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
14-6 v #201-319

Home Ratings (10-2): 73.328 (182)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-2 v #101-200
9-0 v #201-319
League Ratings: 6-1 70.285
Non-League Ratings: 4-1 73.309
Last Ten Ratings: 6-1 70.285

Away Ratings (5-10): 69.543 (230)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
5-6 v #201-319
League Ratings: 3-4 69.512
Non-League Ratings: 2-6 67.738
Last Ten Ratings: 2-1 70.153

Neutral Ratings (0-0): 71.145 (183)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-319
League Ratings: 0-0 71.145
Non-League Ratings: 0-0 71.145
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 71.145

League Ratings (9-5): 71.235 (208)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
9-3 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 6-1 70.285
Away Ratings: 3-4 69.512
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 71.145
Last Ten Ratings: 8-2 70.238

Non-League Ratings (6-7): 71.012 (207)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
5-3 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 4-1 73.309
Away Ratings: 2-6 67.738
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 71.145
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 71.145

Wins Ratings: 70.522 (209)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
14-6 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 10-2 72.709
Away Ratings: 5-10 69.080
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 70.522
Last Ten Ratings: 8-2 72.850

Points Ratings: 71.725 (216)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-4 v #101-200
13-5 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 10-2 73.701
Away Ratings: 5-10 70.098
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 71.725
League Ratings: 9-5 72.035
Non-League Ratings: 6-7 71.233
Last Ten Ratings: 8-2 72.721

Last Ten Ratings (8-2): 72.930 (177)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
8-1 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 6-1 70.285
Away Ratings: 2-1 70.153
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 71.145
League Ratings: 8-2 70.238
Non-League Ratings: 0-0 71.145

Home Advantage: 7.9168 (62)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0280 (248)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.0836 (266)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.1449 (276)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.2115 (282)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.3295 (287)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.6446 (280)

Upward Stability: 3.0177 (154)

Downward Stability: 3.2007 (108)

RPI
RPI: 0.4739 (196)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-2 v #101-200
14-6 v #201-319

RPI Home (10-2): 0.5326 (163)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
3-2 v #101-200
7-0 v #201-319

RPI Away (5-10): 0.4273 (210)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-3 v #101-200
5-5 v #201-319

RPI Neutral (0-0): 0.4739 (174)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-319

RPI League (9-5): 0.4727 (202)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
8-2 v #201-319

RPI Non-League (6-7): 0.4763 (185)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
5-2 v #201-319

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.4467 (266)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/17/2000	Away	L 91-122	vs. #244 Wagner
11/21/2000	Home	W 91-83	vs. #313 High Point
11/25/2000	Away	L 52-81	vs. #9 Boston College
11/28/2000	Away	L 78-88	vs. #59 Connecticut
12/3/2000	Away	L 65-83	vs. #250 Denver
12/9/2000	Away	W 89-82	vs. #300 Army
12/23/2000	Away	L 59-110	vs. #41 Providence
12/28/2000	Home	W 81-61	vs. #298 Elon
12/31/2000	Home	L 69-76	vs. #119 Holy Cross
1/3/2001	Away	W 79-74	vs. #254 Lehigh
1/6/2001	Home	W 81-63	vs. #155 Maine
1/12/2001	Away	W 66-58	vs. #297 Dartmouth
1/13/2001	Away	L 69-91	vs. #230 Harvard
1/19/2001	Away	L 61-66	vs. #264 Yale
1/24/2001	Away	L 59-79	vs. #216 Stony Brook
1/30/2001	Home	W 81-73	vs. #239 Northeastern
2/2/2001	Away	L 62-66	vs. #154 Princeton
2/3/2001	Away	L 50-59	vs. #206 Pennsylvania
2/9/2001	Home	W 60-59	vs. #266 Columbia
2/10/2001	Home	W 85-52	vs. #301 Cornell
2/16/2001	Home	W 90-82	vs. #230 Harvard
2/17/2001	Home	W 86-67	vs. #297 Dartmouth
2/23/2001	Away	W 67-65	vs. #301 Cornell
2/24/2001	Away	W 67-65	vs. #266 Columbia
3/2/2001	Home	W 85-77	vs. #206 Pennsylvania
3/3/2001	Home	L 55-64	vs. #154 Princeton
3/7/2001	Home	W 90-80	vs. #264 Yale

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)