NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

NEVADA
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 9-18
Power Rating: 74.125
Ranking: 173

0-2 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
2-7 v #51-100
5-6 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-319

Home Ratings (8-5): 77.511 (124)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
2-2 v #51-100
4-1 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-319
League Ratings: 3-5 78.992
Non-League Ratings: 5-0 74.664
Last Ten Ratings: 2-2 78.961

Away Ratings (1-11): 71.586 (203)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-5 v #51-100
1-4 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-319
League Ratings: 0-8 73.531
Non-League Ratings: 1-3 76.781
Last Ten Ratings: 0-5 72.672

Neutral Ratings (0-2): 57.250 (297)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-319
League Ratings: 0-1 60.625
Non-League Ratings: 0-1 64.125
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 60.625

League Ratings (3-14): 73.736 (176)
0-2 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
2-6 v #51-100
1-4 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 3-5 78.992
Away Ratings: 0-8 73.531
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 60.625
Last Ten Ratings: 2-8 75.211

Non-League Ratings (6-4): 74.890 (154)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
4-2 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 5-0 74.664
Away Ratings: 1-3 76.781
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 64.125
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 74.125

Wins Ratings: 73.240 (180)
0-2 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
2-7 v #51-100
5-6 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 8-5 76.951
Away Ratings: 1-11 70.037
Neutral Ratings: 0-2 49.615
Last Ten Ratings: 2-8 72.431

Points Ratings: 75.340 (152)
0-2 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
2-7 v #51-100
5-6 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 8-5 78.129
Away Ratings: 1-11 73.543
Neutral Ratings: 0-2 63.496
League Ratings: 3-14 75.564
Non-League Ratings: 6-4 74.879
Last Ten Ratings: 2-8 74.640

Last Ten Ratings (2-8): 73.379 (174)
1-1 v #1-25
0-3 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 2-2 78.961
Away Ratings: 0-5 72.672
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 60.625
League Ratings: 2-8 75.211
Non-League Ratings: 0-0 74.125

Home Advantage: 12.105 (19)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0668 (100)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.2004 (97)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.3383 (94)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.4666 (92)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.6291 (90)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8637 (70)

Upward Stability: 3.1591 (107)

Downward Stability: 2.5566 (241)

RPI
RPI: 0.4695 (201)
0-2 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
3-7 v #51-100
2-5 v #101-200
4-2 v #201-319

RPI Home (8-5): 0.5433 (144)
0-1 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
2-2 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
4-0 v #201-319

RPI Away (1-11): 0.4196 (219)
0-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-5 v #51-100
1-4 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-319

RPI Neutral (0-2): 0.2867 (271)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-319

RPI League (3-14): 0.4614 (220)
0-2 v #1-25
2-4 v #26-50
0-4 v #51-100
1-4 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-319

RPI Non-League (6-4): 0.4808 (178)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
3-2 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-319

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5148 (106)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/18/2000	Away	W 79-71	vs. #197 San Francisco
11/20/2000	Home	W 79-62	vs. #189 Montana St
11/25/2000	Home	W 86-85	vs. #228 Montana
11/29/2000	Home	W 75-64	vs. #176 Arkansas St
12/3/2000	Neut	L 56-61	vs. #240 Portland St
12/9/2000	Home	W 80-71	vs. #112 Unlv
12/11/2000	Away	L 74-83	vs. #189 Montana St
12/16/2000	Home	W 67-65	vs. #316 St Marys CA
12/23/2000	Away	L 65-73	vs. #86 Santa Clara
12/30/2000	Away	L 72-75	vs. #129 Washington St
1/4/2001	Away	L 70-76	vs. #54 Texas El Paso
1/6/2001	Away	L 63-74	vs. #139 Rice
1/11/2001	Home	L 77-82	vs. #88 SMU
1/13/2001	Home	L 88-89	vs. #75 TCU
1/20/2001	Home	L 69-72	vs. #24 Fresno St
1/25/2001	Away	L 49-61	vs. #88 SMU
1/27/2001	Home	W 88-77	vs. #54 Texas El Paso
2/1/2001	Away	L 47-71	vs. #125 San Jose St
2/3/2001	Away	L 69-76	vs. #67 Hawaii
2/8/2001	Home	W 73-60	vs. #67 Hawaii
2/11/2001	Home	L 64-67	vs. #125 San Jose St
2/15/2001	Away	L 70-78	vs. #43 Tulsa
2/17/2001	Away	L 84-110	vs. #75 TCU
2/25/2001	Away	L 68-91	vs. #24 Fresno St
3/1/2001	Home	L 69-74	vs. #43 Tulsa
3/3/2001	Home	W 70-57	vs. #139 Rice
3/6/2001	Neut	L 44-60	vs. #139 Rice

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)