NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

PRINCETON
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 14-11
Power Rating: 75.002
Ranking: 154

0-3 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-3 v #101-200
11-4 v #201-319

Home Ratings (8-1): 80.260 (94)
0-0 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
7-0 v #201-319
League Ratings: 7-0 77.135
Non-League Ratings: 1-1 79.611
Last Ten Ratings: 3-0 79.939

Away Ratings (5-8): 72.807 (185)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
4-4 v #201-319
League Ratings: 4-3 72.584
Non-League Ratings: 1-5 71.799
Last Ten Ratings: 4-2 73.627

Neutral Ratings (1-2): 75.549 (147)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-319
League Ratings: 0-0 75.002
Non-League Ratings: 1-2 73.830
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 70.252

League Ratings (11-3): 75.178 (158)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
11-3 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 7-0 77.135
Away Ratings: 4-3 72.584
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 75.002
Last Ten Ratings: 7-2 74.631

Non-League Ratings (3-8): 74.709 (162)
0-3 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-3 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 1-1 79.611
Away Ratings: 1-5 71.799
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 73.830
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 70.252

Wins Ratings: 74.853 (159)
0-3 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-3 v #101-200
11-4 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 8-1 80.510
Away Ratings: 5-8 72.432
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 77.057
Last Ten Ratings: 7-3 76.369

Points Ratings: 75.113 (158)
0-2 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
4-3 v #101-200
9-4 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 8-1 79.926
Away Ratings: 5-8 73.287
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 72.894
League Ratings: 11-3 75.687
Non-League Ratings: 3-8 74.090
Last Ten Ratings: 7-3 75.754

Last Ten Ratings (7-3): 76.135 (144)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
6-2 v #201-319
Home Ratings: 3-0 79.939
Away Ratings: 4-2 73.627
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 70.252
League Ratings: 7-2 74.631
Non-League Ratings: 0-1 70.252

Home Advantage: 11.070 (28)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0618 (109)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1449 (149)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.2235 (177)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.3064 (197)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.4374 (211)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.7223 (231)

Upward Stability: 2.4596 (282)

Downward Stability: 2.7156 (215)

RPI
RPI: 0.5100 (132)
0-3 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
3-1 v #101-200
9-4 v #201-319

RPI Home (8-1): 0.5649 (109)
0-0 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
2-1 v #101-200
5-0 v #201-319

RPI Away (5-8): 0.4733 (121)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
3-4 v #201-319

RPI Neutral (1-2): 0.5097 (131)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-319

RPI League (11-3): 0.5142 (128)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
2-0 v #101-200
9-3 v #201-319

RPI Non-League (3-8): 0.5077 (131)
0-3 v #1-25
1-2 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-1 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-319

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.4934 (148)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/14/2000	Away	L 50-87	vs. #1 Duke
11/25/2000	Away	L 59-70	vs. #188 Monmouth NJ
12/2/2000	Neut	W 49-47	vs. #124 Ball St
12/6/2000	Away	L 73-80	vs. #257 Lafayette
12/9/2000	Home	W 58-52	vs. #40 Xavier
12/14/2000	Home	L 44-46	vs. #114 Rutgers
12/18/2000	Away	L 45-76	vs. #75 TCU
12/23/2000	Away	W 47-46	vs. #119 Holy Cross
12/26/2000	Away	L 52-65	vs. #23 Penn St
12/27/2000	Neut	L 39-53	vs. #114 Rutgers
1/12/2001	Home	W 78-53	vs. #301 Cornell
1/13/2001	Home	W 53-36	vs. #266 Columbia
2/2/2001	Home	W 66-62	vs. #211 Brown
2/3/2001	Home	W 62-49	vs. #264 Yale
2/9/2001	Away	L 56-57	vs. #297 Dartmouth
2/10/2001	Away	W 69-67	vs. #230 Harvard
2/13/2001	Away	W 67-53	vs. #206 Pennsylvania
2/16/2001	Away	L 42-59	vs. #266 Columbia
2/17/2001	Away	L 49-66	vs. #301 Cornell
2/23/2001	Home	W 62-48	vs. #230 Harvard
2/24/2001	Home	W 68-52	vs. #297 Dartmouth
3/2/2001	Away	W 60-49	vs. #264 Yale
3/3/2001	Away	W 64-55	vs. #211 Brown
3/6/2001	Home	W 68-52	vs. #206 Pennsylvania
3/16/2001	Neut	L 48-70	vs. #6 North Carolina

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)