NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Downward Stability

By ranking
Last Updated Tue Apr 02 06:44:18 PST 2002

Home Court Advantage = 3.9904

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.6823


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. South Carolina (21-15)4.6302
7. Alabama (27-8)4.1505
8. Mississippi St (27-8)4.1501
10. Georgia (22-10)4.1405
20. Kentucky (21-10)3.9225
43. LSU (18-15)3.7440
62. Florida (22-9)3.6067
93. Tennessee (14-16)3.4347
101. Mississippi (19-11)3.3937
127. Vanderbilt (17-14)3.3093
169. Arkansas (14-15)3.0532
246. Auburn (12-16)2.6520


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 3.4850


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Indiana (24-12)4.6781
14. Illinois (26-9)4.0039
17. Iowa (19-16)3.9565
21. Ohio St (24-8)3.8831
31. Wisconsin (18-13)3.8119
82. Minnesota (18-13)3.4633
84. Michigan St (18-12)3.4573
105. Northwestern (16-13)3.3827
160. Purdue (13-18)3.1123
242. Michigan (10-18)2.6635
305. Penn St (7-21)1.9219


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 3.4357


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
13. VA Commonwealth (20-11)4.0370
32. George Mason (19-10)3.8067
52. NC Wilmington (23-10)3.6545
70. Delaware (14-16)3.5596
94. Hofstra (12-20)3.4295
116. Old Dominion (13-16)3.3527
139. James Madison (13-15)3.2489
141. Drexel (14-14)3.2389
165. William & Mary (9-19)3.0769
193. Towson (11-17)2.9527


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 3.4087


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
16. Unlv (21-11)3.9566
30. San Diego St (19-12)3.8144
55. BYU (17-12)3.6204
74. Utah (19-9)3.5086
92. New Mexico (16-14)3.4412
120. Wyoming (21-9)3.3398
197. Colorado St (10-17)2.9311
245. Air Force (9-19)2.6578


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 3.3301


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Temple (19-15)4.3730
5. Richmond (21-14)4.2433
28. La Salle (15-17)3.8347
54. St Josephs (19-11)3.6360
59. St Bonaventure (17-13)3.6143
77. Xavier (26-6)3.5007
112. Dayton (21-10)3.3664
146. Massachusetts (13-16)3.2117
201. Geo Washington (12-16)2.9080
263. Fordham (8-20)2.4914
266. Duquesne (9-19)2.4552
279. Rhode Island (8-20)2.3268


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 3.3043


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Syracuse (23-13)4.2094
29. Villanova (19-13)3.8168
40. Connecticut (27-7)3.7781
48. Boston College (20-12)3.6725
60. Miami Fla (24-8)3.6092
68. St Johns (20-12)3.5700
80. Notre Dame (21-11)3.4782
88. Pittsburgh (28-6)3.4487
148. Rutgers (18-13)3.2082
158. Providence (15-16)3.1164
190. Georgetown (18-11)2.9588
230. Seton Hall (11-18)2.7308
249. Virginia Tech (10-18)2.6459
300. West Virginia (7-20)2.0171


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 3.2793


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
19. Southern Ill (28-8)3.9356
24. SW Missouri St (17-15)3.8546
57. Illinois St (17-14)3.6188
73. Creighton (23-9)3.5168
79. Wichita St (15-15)3.4937
110. Northern Iowa (14-15)3.3677
121. Drake (14-15)3.3367
203. Bradley (9-20)2.8986
269. Indiana St (6-22)2.4180
276. Evansville (7-21)2.3525


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 3.2778


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Arizona (24-10)4.3227
9. UCLA (21-12)4.1414
34. USC (22-10)3.7949
42. Oregon (25-9)3.7581
46. California (23-9)3.6854
47. Stanford (20-10)3.6852
219. Arizona St (13-15)2.8175
225. Washington (10-18)2.7477
292. Oregon St (9-17)2.1736
313. Washington St (6-21)1.6518


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 3.2046


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
23. Memphis (26-9)3.8789
25. South Florida (19-13)3.8474
63. St Louis (15-16)3.5914
67. Houston (17-15)3.5750
76. Louisville (19-13)3.5056
87. NC Charlotte (18-12)3.4492
115. TCU (14-15)3.3534
150. Uab (13-17)3.1700
154. Marquette (26-7)3.1482
175. Tulane (13-15)3.0283
181. Cincinnati (31-4)2.9915
247. East Carolina (10-18)2.6518
261. SO Mississippi (9-17)2.5539
297. DePaul (9-19)2.1191


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.2044


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
37. Fresno St (18-15)3.7832
65. Nevada (16-13)3.5807
103. Louisiana Tech (19-10)3.3886
106. SMU (14-14)3.3822
114. Tulsa (26-7)3.3614
129. Hawaii (27-6)3.3048
167. Boise St (12-17)3.0624
177. Rice (10-19)3.0063
217. Texas El Paso (9-22)2.8224
277. San Jose St (9-20)2.3516


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.1891


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
35. Ball St (21-12)3.7918
41. Bowling Green (23-9)3.7781
44. Western Mich (17-13)3.7265
78. Ohio (17-11)3.5002
91. Miami Ohio (13-18)3.4428
132. Marshall (13-15)3.2993
135. Kent (29-6)3.2792
149. Northern Ill (12-16)3.1883
155. Toledo (15-14)3.1451
172. Buffalo (12-18)3.0404
218. Akron (9-21)2.8206
241. Central Mich (8-19)2.6730
311. Eastern Mich (5-24)1.7725


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 3.1490


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. Holy Cross (18-15)4.1357
66. American (18-12)3.5767
108. Colgate (15-11)3.3744
133. Lafayette (14-14)3.2935
134. Bucknell (13-16)3.2855
210. Army (10-16)2.8505
234. Navy (9-20)2.7097
302. Lehigh (4-23)1.9662


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.1444


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
12. Siena (17-19)4.0799
15. Niagara (18-14)3.9918
81. Marist (19-9)3.4755
95. Rider (17-11)3.4155
98. Iona (13-17)3.4030
124. Fairfield (12-17)3.3308
128. Manhattan (20-9)3.3091
213. Canisius (10-20)2.8315
303. Loyola MD (5-23)1.9654
314. St Peters (4-24)1.6418


ATLANTIC SUN AVERAGE = 3.1035


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
27. Fla Atlantic (18-12)3.8438
51. Georgia St (19-11)3.6574
71. Samford (15-14)3.5537
100. Central Florida (16-12)3.3939
111. Troy St (18-10)3.3671
117. Jacksonville (14-12)3.3515
156. Belmont (11-17)3.1398
192. Jacksonville St (11-16)2.9549
260. Stetson (9-16)2.5701
281. Campbell (7-19)2.3099
301. Mercer (5-23)1.9964


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 3.0443


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
22. Santa Barbara (19-11)3.8803
36. Pacific (18-10)3.7897
38. UC Irvine (20-11)3.7814
49. Utah St (22-8)3.6702
161. Cal Poly (14-12)3.1095
170. CS Northridge (11-16)3.0453
189. Long Beach St (11-17)2.9620
211. North Texas (13-14)2.8454
264. Idaho (8-19)2.4649
293. UC Riverside (7-18)2.1620
310. CS Fullerton (4-22)1.7765


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 3.0357


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
26. Missouri (24-12)3.8469
33. Texas (22-12)3.7992
83. Texas Tech (23-9)3.4621
123. Oklahoma (31-5)3.3315
130. Oklahoma St (23-9)3.3043
157. Kansas (31-4)3.1268
237. Baylor (12-16)2.6876
248. Nebraska (12-15)2.6515
250. Kansas St (12-16)2.6446
252. Iowa St (11-19)2.6315
253. Colorado (14-14)2.6259
280. Texas A&M (8-22)2.3162


HORIZON AVERAGE = 3.0050


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
39. Illinois Chi (17-14)3.7799
53. Detroit (18-13)3.6365
113. Loyola Chi (16-13)3.3639
147. Wright St (16-11)3.2107
159. Butler (26-6)3.1141
178. Wisc Milwaukee (13-13)3.0039
196. Cleveland St (12-16)2.9365
259. Wisc Green Bay (9-21)2.5764
317. Youngstown St (3-23)1.4236


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 2.9844


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
75. Eastern Wash (15-13)3.5073
90. Montana (14-15)3.4438
122. Weber St (15-11)3.3317
145. Montana St (17-9)3.2156
184. Northrn Arizona (12-14)2.9787
228. Portland St (11-16)2.7421
274. Sacramento St (7-19)2.3536
282. Idaho St (8-17)2.3027


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 2.9600


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
96. Vermont (21-8)3.4091
104. Hartford (14-18)3.3839
137. Boston U (22-10)3.2719
142. Maine (11-18)3.2307
193. Towson (11-17)2.9527
198. New Hampshire (10-17)2.9159
207. Binghamton (9-19)2.8906
243. Albany NY (8-20)2.6581
256. Northeastern (7-21)2.6018
285. Stony Brook (6-22)2.2853


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 2.9455


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
50. NC Greensboro (20-11)3.6698
58. Coll Of Charltn (20-8)3.6167
107. Davidson (18-10)3.3811
119. Chattanooga (14-14)3.3487
136. Furman (13-13)3.2788
180. East Tenn St (15-10)2.9998
183. The Citadel (13-12)2.9832
224. Geo Southern (11-11)2.7641
258. Westrn Carolina (8-16)2.5798
284. VMI (7-18)2.2906
289. Appalachian St (7-18)2.2309
291. Wofford (7-18)2.2028


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.9029


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
18. Wake Forest (22-13)3.9522
109. North Carolina St (23-11)3.3741
152. Georgia Tech (15-16)3.1525
191. Virginia (17-12)2.9561
229. Duke (31-4)2.7380
232. Maryland (32-4)2.7285
240. Clemson (13-17)2.6734
278. Florida St (11-17)2.3357
290. North Carolina (8-20)2.2160


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 2.8800


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
45. Ul Monroe (19-12)3.7219
56. Tex San Antonio (19-10)3.6193
85. Lamar (15-14)3.4571
153. Sam Houston (14-14)3.1512
163. Stephen Austin (12-15)3.0901
179. Northwestern St (11-18)3.0014
182. McNeese St (20-9)2.9908
187. SW Texas St (11-16)2.9712
226. Texas Arlington (11-14)2.7459
296. SE Louisiana (6-20)2.1245
323. Nicholls St (1-25)0.8066


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 2.8745


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
69. New Mexico St (18-11)3.5668
86. Ul Lafayette (19-11)3.4546
103. Louisiana Tech (19-10)3.3886
144. New Orleans (14-14)3.2200
162. Arkansas St (13-16)3.0903
173. Middle Tenn St (12-15)3.0315
211. North Texas (13-14)2.8454
221. Arkansas Lr (16-11)2.8085
254. Western KY (26-4)2.6222
283. Denver (7-20)2.2935
286. Florida Intl (8-20)2.2746
306. South Alabama (5-20)1.8984


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.8726


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
64. Howard (17-13)3.5840
125. SO Carolina St (14-15)3.3187
126. Hampton (25-7)3.3113
131. Delaware St (16-13)3.3019
138. Bethune Cookman (11-17)3.2582
200. MD Eastrn Shore (11-18)2.9083
220. NO Carolina A&T (10-17)2.8126
236. Norfolk St (10-19)2.6892
239. Florida A&M (9-19)2.6756
295. Coppin St (5-25)2.1408
315. Morgan St (3-25)1.5978


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 2.7557


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
97. Yale (21-9)3.4060
102. Pennsylvania (25-7)3.3900
171. Brown (16-10)3.0443
208. Princeton (15-12)2.8896
231. Harvard (14-12)2.7287
251. Columbia (10-16)2.6369
287. Dartmouth (8-18)2.2703
312. Cornell (4-22)1.6799


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.6934


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
61. Alabama St (18-12)3.6072
118. Alcorn St (20-10)3.3490
168. Alabama A&M (15-10)3.0576
199. Texas Southern (11-17)2.9113
204. Miss Valley St (11-16)2.8978
244. Jackson St (9-19)2.6580
255. Prairie View (9-18)2.6114
271. Grambling (8-19)2.4051
273. Southern (7-19)2.3627
320. Ark Pine Bluff (2-26)1.0740


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 2.6885


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
99. Winthrop (17-12)3.4017
151. Radford (14-16)3.1667
214. Elon (11-16)2.8307
215. Charleston Sou (10-17)2.8248
227. NC Asheville (12-14)2.7435
233. High Point (9-19)2.7158
262. Coast Carolina (8-20)2.5437
267. Birmingham Southern (9-14)2.4518
316. Liberty (3-24)1.5178


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.6825


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
140. San Diego (14-13)3.2411
185. Pepperdine (21-10)2.9761
194. San Francisco (12-15)2.9368
222. Santa Clara (12-15)2.8065
235. Gonzaga (28-4)2.7033
270. St Marys CA (8-20)2.4152
288. Loyola Marymnt (8-20)2.2330
294. Portland (6-24)2.1483


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 2.6522


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
72. Oral Roberts (17-13)3.5282
143. Oakland (16-12)3.2270
166. Mo Kansas City (16-11)3.0693
174. Valparaiso (24-8)3.0312
205. Iupui (12-15)2.8976
268. Southern Utah (9-16)2.4235
272. Western Ill (10-16)2.3986
324. Chicago St (1-24)0.6425


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 2.6189


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
89. Murray St (17-12)3.4449
164. Tennessee Tech (23-7)3.0861
202. Morehead St (14-11)2.9062
206. Eastern Ill (12-16)2.8936
212. Austin Peay (11-18)2.8436
238. Tenn Martin (11-14)2.6834
265. Tennessee St (9-17)2.4572
307. SE Missouri St (4-22)1.8513
318. Eastern KY (3-20)1.4039


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.3371


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
186. St Francis NY (18-11)2.9759
195. Monmouth NJ (18-12)2.9365
209. Wagner (19-10)2.8659
223. Robert Morris (12-18)2.7686
257. Central Conn (27-5)2.5904
304. St Francis PA (6-21)1.9302
308. Liu Brooklyn (5-22)1.8105
309. Fair Dickinson (4-25)1.8100
319. Mt St Marys (3-24)1.3456


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 1.7954


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
216. TX Pan American (15-9)2.8238
298. Centenary (9-12)2.0850
299. Texas A&M-CC (7-14)2.0786
321. Morris Brown (3-22)1.0401
322. Lipscomb (2-18)0.9493
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