NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

SMU
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 14-14
Power Rating: 78.035
Ranking: 109

0-0 v #1-25
0-5 v #26-50
3-6 v #51-100
4-3 v #101-200
7-0 v #201-324

Home Ratings (7-6): 76.055 (146)
0-0 v #1-25
0-3 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
2-0 v #101-200
4-0 v #201-324
League Ratings: 5-4 76.730
Non-League Ratings: 2-2 77.004
Last Ten Ratings: 2-3 75.402

Away Ratings (6-6): 80.574 (84)
0-0 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
2-1 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-324
League Ratings: 5-4 79.644
Non-League Ratings: 1-2 78.426
Last Ten Ratings: 2-2 75.105

Neutral Ratings (1-2): 75.426 (160)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-324
League Ratings: 0-1 72.816
Non-League Ratings: 1-1 78.676
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 72.816

League Ratings (10-9): 78.369 (113)
0-0 v #1-25
0-4 v #26-50
3-4 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
6-0 v #201-324
Home Ratings: 5-4 76.730
Away Ratings: 5-4 79.644
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 72.816
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 75.033

Non-League Ratings (4-5): 77.199 (127)
0-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
3-2 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-324
Home Ratings: 2-2 77.004
Away Ratings: 1-2 78.426
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 78.676
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 78.035

Wins Ratings: 78.568 (110)
0-0 v #1-25
0-5 v #26-50
3-6 v #51-100
4-3 v #101-200
7-0 v #201-324
Home Ratings: 7-6 75.267
Away Ratings: 6-6 82.447
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 75.381
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 75.596

Points Ratings: 77.381 (114)
0-0 v #1-25
0-6 v #26-50
1-4 v #51-100
10-4 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-324
Home Ratings: 7-6 76.937
Away Ratings: 6-6 78.266
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 75.662
League Ratings: 10-9 77.244
Non-League Ratings: 4-5 77.732
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 74.682

Last Ten Ratings (4-6): 75.248 (159)
0-0 v #1-25
0-3 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
2-1 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-324
Home Ratings: 2-3 75.402
Away Ratings: 2-2 75.105
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 72.816
League Ratings: 4-6 75.033
Non-League Ratings: 0-0 78.035

Home Advantage: 0.5006 (258)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0564 (123)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1791 (115)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.3064 (110)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.4391 (105)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.6143 (99)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8648 (71)

Upward Stability: 3.5534 (32)

Downward Stability: 3.3822 (106)

RPI
RPI: 0.5139 (117)
0-1 v #1-25
0-4 v #26-50
1-5 v #51-100
6-4 v #101-200
7-0 v #201-324

RPI Home (7-6): 0.5272 (164)
0-0 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
1-4 v #51-100
4-0 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-324

RPI Away (6-6): 0.5085 (74)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
1-2 v #101-200
4-1 v #201-324

RPI Neutral (1-2): 0.4792 (189)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-324

RPI League (10-9): 0.5268 (103)
0-4 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
3-4 v #101-200
6-0 v #201-324

RPI Non-League (4-5): 0.4873 (168)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-324

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5186 (106)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/18/2001	Home	W 81-64	vs. #278 Navy
11/20/2001	Home	L 75-78	vs. #26 Texas Tech
11/27/2001	Away	L 90-92	vs. #149 Baylor
11/30/2001	Neut	W 72-63	vs. #112 La Salle
12/1/2001	Neut	L 69-86	vs. #69 Iowa
12/4/2001	Away	W 74-66	vs. #170 North Texas
12/6/2001	Home	L 62-79	vs. #54 Tennessee
12/14/2001	Home	W 82-64	vs. #155 Oral Roberts
12/18/2001	Away	L 62-74	vs. #130 TCU
12/28/2001	Home	W 80-67	vs. #165 Boise St
12/30/2001	Home	W 55-46	vs. #212 Texas El Paso
1/5/2002	Away	W 74-71	vs. #61 Louisiana Tech
1/10/2002	Away	W 68-66	vs. #228 San Jose St
1/12/2002	Away	L 74-83	vs. #32 Hawaii
1/17/2002	Home	W 76-49	vs. #203 Rice
1/19/2002	Home	L 87-95	vs. #28 Tulsa
1/24/2002	Away	L 70-78	vs. #81 Fresno St
1/26/2002	Away	W 71-57	vs. #100 Nevada
2/2/2002	Home	L 66-70	vs. #61 Louisiana Tech
2/7/2002	Home	L 76-85	vs. #32 Hawaii
2/9/2002	Home	W 84-55	vs. #228 San Jose St
2/14/2002	Away	L 69-87	vs. #28 Tulsa
2/16/2002	Away	W 63-61	vs. #203 Rice
2/21/2002	Home	W 77-74	vs. #100 Nevada
2/23/2002	Home	L 78-86	vs. #81 Fresno St
2/28/2002	Away	W 63-61	vs. #212 Texas El Paso
3/2/2002	Away	L 63-80	vs. #165 Boise St
3/7/2002	Neut	L 66-72	vs. #100 Nevada

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)