NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Upward Stability

By ranking
Last Updated Mon Dec 08 11:52:26 EST 2003

Home Court Advantage = 3.9564

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.2762


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Ohio (14-16)1.4600
5. Northern Ill (17-14)1.4215
6. Toledo (13-16)1.4045
15. Ball St (13-17)1.3656
16. Marshall (13-15)1.3637
23. Miami Ohio (12-15)1.3311
42. Bowling Green (11-16)1.2801
50. Kent (20-9)1.2593
87. Akron (13-14)1.2147
135. Western Mich (19-10)1.1576
137. Eastern Mich (12-14)1.1555
177. Buffalo (5-23)1.1166
221. Central Mich (24-7)1.0599


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.2563


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. St Francis NY (14-16)1.4250
13. Fair Dickinson (15-14)1.3798
38. Liu Brooklyn (9-19)1.2819
45. Monmouth NJ (15-13)1.2755
53. Central Conn (15-13)1.2464
88. St Francis PA (14-14)1.2140
91. Robert Morris (9-17)1.2091
123. Mt St Marys (11-16)1.1734
190. Wagner (21-11)1.1014


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.2304


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. Loyola Marymnt (11-19)1.3835
41. Pepperdine (15-13)1.2813
60. Portland (10-17)1.2416
61. St Marys CA (14-15)1.2406
65. San Diego (17-12)1.2338
93. Santa Clara (12-15)1.2085
107. San Francisco (14-14)1.1928
218. Gonzaga (24-9)1.0613


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.2041


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. North Carolina (17-15)1.4270
10. North Carolina St (18-13)1.3890
37. Virginia (14-15)1.2830
62. Georgia Tech (14-14)1.2386
75. Florida St (14-15)1.2289
119. Maryland (21-10)1.1785
172. Clemson (15-13)1.1208
246. Duke (25-7)1.0207
280. Wake Forest (25-6)0.9506


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 1.1998


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Michigan St (22-13)1.4238
9. Indiana (21-13)1.3933
26. Ohio St (17-14)1.3251
33. Minnesota (16-14)1.2954
49. Purdue (19-11)1.2648
55. Michigan (17-13)1.2449
85. Iowa (15-13)1.2163
193. Northwestern (12-17)1.0994
257. Illinois (25-7)1.0013
268. Wisconsin (24-8)0.9814
279. Penn St (7-21)0.9526


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 1.1706


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
14. Cal Poly (15-14)1.3746
20. CS Fullerton (10-19)1.3458
44. Pacific (12-16)1.2760
46. Idaho (12-15)1.2734
56. Santa Barbara (18-13)1.2448
96. CS Northridge (13-15)1.2073
194. Utah St (22-9)1.0967
239. UC Irvine (19-9)1.0395
240. North Texas (5-21)1.0350
250. Long Beach St (4-22)1.0143
271. UC Riverside (5-18)0.9696


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 1.1635


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
22. Radford (10-20)1.3318
24. Liberty (14-15)1.3279
51. NC Asheville (14-17)1.2557
115. Coast Carolina (11-15)1.1835
142. Charleston Sou (12-14)1.1503
145. High Point (7-20)1.1487
191. Elon (10-15)1.1009
241. Winthrop (18-10)1.0338
284. Birmingham Southern (17-9)0.9386


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 1.1611


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. St Johns (18-13)1.3938
25. Villanova (15-15)1.3252
59. Georgetown (16-15)1.2422
64. Virginia Tech (11-18)1.2344
68. Providence (16-13)1.2335
76. Notre Dame (24-10)1.2287
84. Miami Fla (11-17)1.2170
99. Connecticut (23-10)1.2015
121. Seton Hall (17-12)1.1747
136. Boston College (18-11)1.1562
182. West Virginia (14-15)1.1089
247. Rutgers (12-16)1.0176
283. Syracuse (30-5)0.9433
318. Pittsburgh (28-5)0.7790


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 1.1585


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
19. Texas Tech (19-13)1.3496
34. Colorado (20-12)1.2879
43. Missouri (21-11)1.2788
83. Kansas St (13-17)1.2185
124. Oklahoma St (21-10)1.1682
153. Nebraska (11-18)1.1385
155. Texas A&M (14-14)1.1372
169. Kansas (28-8)1.1239
189. Iowa St (15-13)1.1026
223. Oklahoma (27-7)1.0563
234. Baylor (14-14)1.0454
260. Texas (26-7)0.9955


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.1529


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
7. Alcorn St (14-19)1.3978
12. Texas Southern (18-13)1.3834
103. Alabama St (13-15)1.1999
106. Southern (7-20)1.1930
170. Miss Valley St (14-13)1.1217
171. Alabama A&M (7-19)1.1214
181. Grambling (10-18)1.1101
198. Jackson St (10-18)1.0906
244. Prairie View (17-12)1.0243
300. Ark Pine Bluff (4-24)0.8869


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 1.1526


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
29. Evansville (12-16)1.3131
35. Bradley (11-18)1.2861
40. Illinois St (8-21)1.2813
63. Indiana St (7-24)1.2370
98. Northern Iowa (10-17)1.2028
116. Drake (8-20)1.1827
139. SW Missouri St (17-12)1.1542
196. Wichita St (18-11)1.0938
286. Southern Ill (24-6)0.9317
309. Creighton (29-5)0.8431


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 1.1474


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
70. Colorado St (17-13)1.2328
104. Unlv (21-10)1.1966
132. San Diego St (14-13)1.1611
141. BYU (23-9)1.1521
146. Air Force (12-16)1.1484
154. Wyoming (19-10)1.1374
188. Utah (24-8)1.1027
230. New Mexico (9-18)1.0480


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 1.1443


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
18. NC Charlotte (13-16)1.3601
30. SO Mississippi (13-16)1.3092
73. Cincinnati (17-12)1.2302
77. Houston (8-20)1.2272
78. South Florida (14-14)1.2270
86. St Louis (16-13)1.2156
127. Tulane (15-15)1.1678
144. DePaul (16-12)1.1496
150. Uab (18-12)1.1446
184. TCU (9-19)1.1063
242. East Carolina (10-15)1.0311
259. Louisville (25-7)0.9964
272. Marquette (27-6)0.9681
299. Memphis (23-7)0.8876


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.1429


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
28. St Peters (10-19)1.3178
32. Marist (13-16)1.3048
89. Niagara (17-12)1.2131
100. Rider (12-16)1.2011
114. Canisius (10-18)1.1847
118. Fairfield (19-11)1.1797
128. Iona (17-12)1.1673
152. Siena (19-10)1.1386
298. Loyola MD (4-24)0.8876
310. Manhattan (23-7)0.8343


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 1.1275


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
17. USC (13-17)1.3620
58. UCLA (10-19)1.2431
81. Arizona St (19-12)1.2205
108. Stanford (24-9)1.1926
129. Oregon (23-10)1.1653
163. California (22-9)1.1320
166. Oregon St (12-15)1.1290
195. Washington (10-17)1.0953
253. Washington St (7-20)1.0091
321. Arizona (28-4)0.7257


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.1194


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
39. Boise St (12-16)1.2816
52. SMU (17-13)1.2493
54. Nevada (17-13)1.2456
97. Hawaii (18-11)1.2068
120. Tulsa (23-10)1.1752
210. Louisiana Tech (10-15)1.0713
214. Rice (17-10)1.0640
261. San Jose St (5-21)0.9938
269. Fresno St (20-8)0.9809
288. Texas El Paso (5-24)0.9256


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 1.1169


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
36. Sacramento St (11-17)1.2838
66. Montana (12-16)1.2338
92. Idaho St (13-14)1.2086
149. Northrn Arizona (13-13)1.1446
151. Eastern Wash (17-12)1.1424
162. Montana St (9-16)1.1323
264. Portland St (4-21)0.9870
313. Weber St (25-5)0.8030


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 1.1137


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
21. Denver (17-15)1.3425
90. Arkansas Lr (16-12)1.2117
110. Arkansas St (11-15)1.1904
147. Middle Tenn St (14-14)1.1482
157. Florida Intl (7-21)1.1363
199. New Orleans (13-14)1.0901
211. South Alabama (12-14)1.0706
240. North Texas (5-21)1.0350
249. Western KY (23-9)1.0157
255. New Mexico St (19-9)1.0051
256. Ul Lafayette (19-9)1.0047


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.1122


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
48. Auburn (21-12)1.2726
69. Alabama (17-12)1.2332
71. Mississippi (14-15)1.2310
111. Arkansas (9-19)1.1883
122. LSU (21-11)1.1734
130. Tennessee (17-11)1.1651
143. South Carolina (12-16)1.1497
180. Mississippi St (21-10)1.1123
222. Vanderbilt (11-18)1.0583
229. Florida (25-8)1.0480
275. Georgia (19-8)0.9590
319. Kentucky (32-4)0.7561


HORIZON AVERAGE = 1.1003


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
47. Loyola Chi (15-16)1.2726
102. Wright St (9-18)1.2000
105. Youngstown St (7-20)1.1958
161. Detroit (17-12)1.1329
174. Cleveland St (8-22)1.1180
175. Wisc Green Bay (9-19)1.1174
258. Butler (26-6)0.9969
282. Wisc Milwaukee (23-8)0.9450
289. Illinois Chi (21-8)0.9237


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 1.0975


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
31. James Madison (12-17)1.3059
67. Hofstra (8-21)1.2335
72. Delaware (15-14)1.2305
80. William & Mary (12-16)1.2255
168. Old Dominion (12-15)1.1251
173. Drexel (18-11)1.1205
219. George Mason (16-12)1.0613
248. VA Commonwealth (18-10)1.0176
308. NC Wilmington (24-7)0.8439
312. Towson (4-24)0.8112


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 1.0807


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
74. Northeastern (14-15)1.2296
138. Albany NY (7-21)1.1550
140. Maine (12-16)1.1541
160. Binghamton (14-13)1.1346
179. Hartford (15-13)1.1125
183. New Hampshire (5-23)1.1080
206. Vermont (19-11)1.0760
209. Stony Brook (11-15)1.0716
277. Boston U (20-10)0.9545
312. Towson (4-24)0.8112


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 1.0667


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
57. VMI (8-19)1.2431
101. NC Greensboro (6-22)1.2010
112. Geo Southern (13-13)1.1864
167. East Tenn St (17-11)1.1272
186. Wofford (10-15)1.1049
212. Westrn Carolina (6-18)1.0688
215. Chattanooga (19-9)1.0630
243. Furman (11-17)1.0296
251. Appalachian St (16-10)1.0142
263. Coll Of Charltn (22-7)0.9907
297. Davidson (14-10)0.8952
303. The Citadel (4-20)0.8763


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 1.0502


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
27. Temple (15-15)1.3184
117. Duquesne (9-21)1.1804
158. Richmond (15-13)1.1359
164. Geo Washington (12-17)1.1313
185. Rhode Island (18-11)1.1049
202. St Bonaventure (13-14)1.0816
216. La Salle (12-17)1.0628
237. Massachusetts (10-18)1.0413
273. St Josephs (23-7)0.9641
292. Xavier (26-6)0.9162
294. Dayton (24-6)0.9097
320. Fordham (2-26)0.7556


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 1.0456


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
94. Ul Monroe (11-16)1.2076
126. SW Texas St (15-12)1.1681
133. Lamar (12-14)1.1589
159. McNeese St (13-14)1.1350
203. Northwestern St (6-21)1.0810
205. Texas Arlington (14-13)1.0767
208. Tex San Antonio (9-17)1.0723
226. SE Louisiana (9-16)1.0505
290. Sam Houston (21-7)0.9212
291. Stephen Austin (19-8)0.9193
322. Nicholls St (2-25)0.7111


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.0228


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
109. Howard (13-17)1.1905
125. Norfolk St (14-15)1.1682
131. Bethune Cookman (8-22)1.1613
207. Hampton (19-11)1.0735
220. Morgan St (7-22)1.0601
224. Florida A&M (17-12)1.0545
227. MD Eastrn Shore (5-23)1.0498
235. SO Carolina St (20-11)1.0446
254. Coppin St (11-17)1.0091
295. Delaware St (15-12)0.9050
326. NO Carolina A&T (1-25)0.5339


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 1.0184


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
79. Iupui (19-14)1.2259
165. Mo Kansas City (9-20)1.1295
187. Southern Utah (9-17)1.1041
267. Oakland (15-11)0.9821
270. Oral Roberts (17-10)0.9736
285. Western Ill (5-21)0.9372
293. Chicago St (3-27)0.9103
302. Valparaiso (20-10)0.8844


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 0.9955


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
113. Lafayette (11-16)1.1859
178. Bucknell (13-15)1.1164
213. Navy (7-19)1.0659
217. American (16-14)1.0626
225. Colgate (12-14)1.0523
236. Lehigh (14-12)1.0419
316. Army (3-22)0.7873
325. Holy Cross (25-5)0.6521


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 0.9850


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
148. Central Florida (20-11)1.1453
192. Jacksonville (12-16)1.1007
197. Georgia St (13-15)1.0929
232. Jacksonville St (19-10)1.0471
238. Samford (12-15)1.0403
245. Belmont (16-12)1.0214
252. Fla Atlantic (6-21)1.0117
274. Gardner-Webb (4-24)0.9628
296. Stetson (6-20)0.8978
304. Troy St (25-6)0.8598
306. Campbell (4-22)0.8543
317. Mercer (22-6)0.7864


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 0.9453


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
176. Harvard (11-15)1.1171
231. Brown (17-11)1.0474
233. Dartmouth (7-19)1.0462
266. Cornell (8-18)0.9863
278. Yale (13-13)0.9540
281. Princeton (15-11)0.9455
314. Pennsylvania (22-6)0.8008
323. Columbia (2-25)0.6652


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 0.9422


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
156. Tennessee Tech (17-12)1.1370
200. Murray St (15-12)1.0871
201. SE Missouri St (9-19)1.0824
204. Eastern Ill (13-15)1.0767
262. Tenn Martin (10-14)0.9930
276. Austin Peay (20-8)0.9572
287. Morehead St (17-9)0.9282
305. Eastern KY (7-17)0.8597
327. Tennessee St (1-24)0.3581


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 0.8697


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
265. Texas A&M-CC (11-15)0.9863
301. TX Pan American (6-20)0.8852
307. Morris Brown (6-20)0.8537
311. Centenary (10-14)0.8283
315. Lipscomb (6-20)0.7952
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