NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

COLGATE
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 12-14
Power Rating: 69.620
Ranking: 241

0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-5 v #101-200
11-6 v #201-327

Home Ratings (7-4): 68.330 (253)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
6-3 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 5-2 69.682
Non-League Power Ratings: 2-2 64.479
Last Ten Ratings: 3-2 69.916

Away Ratings (5-8): 72.432 (212)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-4 v #101-200
5-2 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 4-3 75.057
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-5 67.307
Last Ten Ratings: 3-1 76.120

Neutral Ratings (0-2): 57.870 (290)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 0-1 55.745
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 73.745
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 55.745

League Power Rankings (9-6): 72.186 (206)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
8-3 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 5-2 69.682
Away Ratings: 4-3 75.057
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 55.745
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 71.330

Non-League Power Ratings (3-8): 64.604 (290)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-4 v #101-200
3-3 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 2-2 64.479
Away Ratings: 1-5 67.307
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 73.745
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 69.620

Wins Power Rankings: 68.209 (247)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-5 v #101-200
11-6 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 7-4 66.350
Away Ratings: 5-8 72.014
Neutral Ratings: 0-2 49.209
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 71.155

Rankings: Points: 71.350 (234)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-4 v #101-200
11-7 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 7-4 70.522
Away Ratings: 5-8 73.077
Neutral Ratings: 0-2 65.350
League Power Rankings: 9-6 72.854
Non-League Power Ratings: 3-8 68.412
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 72.811

Last Ten Ratings (6-4): 71.909 (210)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
5-3 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 3-2 69.916
Away Ratings: 3-1 76.120
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 55.745
League Power Rankings: 6-4 71.330
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-0 69.620

Home Advantage: 1.7966 (216)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0302 (237)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.0841 (274)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.1489 (284)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.2245 (285)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.3531 (285)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.6584 (287)

Upward Stability: 1.0523 (225)

Downward Stability: 1.0924 (196)

RPI
RPI: 0.4515 (248)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-3 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
11-7 v #201-327

RPI Home (7-4): 0.4762 (251)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
5-3 v #201-327

RPI Away (5-8): 0.4524 (175)
0-1 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
5-4 v #201-327

RPI Neutral (0-2): 0.3092 (257)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327

RPI League (9-6): 0.4925 (168)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
2-2 v #101-200
7-2 v #201-327

RPI Non-League (3-8): 0.3981 (296)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
3-3 v #201-327

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.4482 (285)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/22/2002	Away	L 65-72	vs. #197 Marist
11/23/2002	Neut	L 65-66	vs. #172 Eastern Mich
11/26/2002	Home	W 76-58	vs. #287 Cornell
12/3/2002	Away	L 68-98	vs. #2 Syracuse
12/6/2002	Home	W 87-68	vs. #308 New Hampshire
12/8/2002	Home	L 70-78	vs. #283 Liu Brooklyn
12/13/2002	Home	L 71-76	vs. #236 Harvard
12/23/2002	Away	L 54-75	vs. #126 Drexel
1/2/2003	Away	L 54-61	vs. #307 Albany NY
1/4/2003	Away	L 54-78	vs. #179 Oral Roberts
1/7/2003	Away	W 64-54	vs. #293 Dartmouth
1/11/2003	Home	W 66-64	vs. #258 Lafayette
1/15/2003	Away	L 43-86	vs. #68 Holy Cross
1/18/2003	Home	W 86-58	vs. #318 Army
1/24/2003	Away	L 55-58	vs. #184 American
1/26/2003	Away	W 53-48	vs. #289 Navy
1/31/2003	Home	L 42-62	vs. #235 Bucknell
2/2/2003	Home	W 77-68	vs. #232 Lehigh
2/7/2003	Away	L 56-60	vs. #258 Lafayette
2/12/2003	Home	L 91-92	vs. #68 Holy Cross
2/15/2003	Away	W 68-58	vs. #318 Army
2/21/2003	Home	W 73-52	vs. #289 Navy
2/23/2003	Home	W 60-59	vs. #184 American
2/28/2003	Away	W 75-68	vs. #232 Lehigh
3/2/2003	Away	W 64-56	vs. #235 Bucknell
3/8/2003	Neut	L 76-89	vs. #258 Lafayette

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)