NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

LEHIGH
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 14-12
Power Rating: 70.312
Ranking: 232

0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
13-6 v #201-327

Home Ratings (9-2): 72.249 (205)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
8-1 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 5-2 70.718
Non-League Power Ratings: 4-0 71.124
Last Ten Ratings: 2-2 69.031

Away Ratings (4-9): 69.796 (243)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-3 v #101-200
4-4 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 3-4 70.249
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-5 69.374
Last Ten Ratings: 1-4 64.812

Neutral Ratings (1-1): 65.968 (240)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
1-1 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 0-1 65.187
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-0 75.812
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 65.187

League Power Rankings (8-7): 69.984 (239)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
7-4 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 5-2 70.718
Away Ratings: 3-4 70.249
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 65.187
Last Ten Ratings: 3-7 66.890

Non-League Power Ratings (6-5): 71.015 (229)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
6-2 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 4-0 71.124
Away Ratings: 1-5 69.374
Neutral Ratings: 1-0 75.812
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 70.312

Wins Power Rankings: 69.214 (233)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
13-6 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 9-2 71.152
Away Ratings: 4-9 69.230
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 62.464
Last Ten Ratings: 3-7 63.027

Rankings: Points: 71.660 (228)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-3 v #51-100
1-2 v #101-200
13-6 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 9-2 73.331
Away Ratings: 4-9 70.628
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 70.347
League Power Rankings: 8-7 71.574
Non-League Power Ratings: 6-5 71.831
Last Ten Ratings: 3-7 68.621

Last Ten Ratings (3-7): 65.499 (284)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
3-4 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 2-2 69.031
Away Ratings: 1-4 64.812
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 65.187
League Power Rankings: 3-7 66.890
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-0 70.312

Home Advantage: 6.9200 (94)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0236 (278)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.0788 (286)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.1441 (286)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.2180 (289)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.3424 (289)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.6413 (298)

Upward Stability: 1.0419 (236)

Downward Stability: 1.0516 (218)

RPI
RPI: 0.4604 (228)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-3 v #51-100
1-2 v #101-200
13-6 v #201-327

RPI Home (9-2): 0.5148 (191)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
7-1 v #201-327

RPI Away (4-9): 0.4218 (234)
0-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-3 v #101-200
4-4 v #201-327

RPI Neutral (1-1): 0.4185 (215)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-327

RPI League (8-7): 0.4685 (220)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
3-4 v #101-200
5-1 v #201-327

RPI Non-League (6-5): 0.4493 (237)
0-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
6-1 v #201-327

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.4344 (309)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/22/2002	Home	W 68-62	vs. #293 Dartmouth
11/24/2002	Away	L 56-90	vs. #10 Illinois
11/30/2002	Away	L 50-63	vs. #271 Hofstra
12/1/2002	Neut	W 66-52	vs. #309 TX Pan American
12/4/2002	Home	W 66-49	vs. #287 Cornell
12/7/2002	Away	L 72-84	vs. #236 Harvard
12/9/2002	Home	W 67-51	vs. #323 Columbia
12/23/2002	Away	W 54-48	vs. #272 Stony Brook
12/30/2002	Away	L 62-68	vs. #122 Miami Fla
1/2/2003	Away	L 68-80	vs. #176 Wagner
1/4/2003	Home	W 74-68	vs. #253 St Francis NY
1/11/2003	Away	W 76-59	vs. #289 Navy
1/15/2003	Away	W 60-56	vs. #235 Bucknell
1/18/2003	Home	W 57-54	vs. #184 American
1/24/2003	Home	W 85-73	vs. #258 Lafayette
1/26/2003	Home	W 78-61	vs. #318 Army
1/31/2003	Away	L 39-63	vs. #68 Holy Cross
2/2/2003	Away	L 68-77	vs. #241 Colgate
2/8/2003	Home	W 68-46	vs. #289 Navy
2/11/2003	Home	W 61-49	vs. #235 Bucknell
2/15/2003	Away	L 59-69	vs. #184 American
2/21/2003	Away	W 59-52	vs. #318 Army
2/23/2003	Away	L 68-86	vs. #258 Lafayette
2/28/2003	Home	L 68-75	vs. #241 Colgate
3/2/2003	Home	L 64-72	vs. #68 Holy Cross
3/8/2003	Neut	L 47-52	vs. #235 Bucknell

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)