NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

MIAMI OHIO
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 12-15
Power Rating: 77.225
Ranking: 132

0-2 v #1-25
2-2 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
7-7 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-327

Home Ratings (8-4): 78.287 (119)
0-1 v #1-25
2-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
4-2 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 7-2 76.959
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-2 75.725
Last Ten Ratings: 2-1 75.584

Away Ratings (4-9): 77.780 (126)
0-1 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
3-4 v #101-200
1-1 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 4-5 79.780
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-4 74.287
Last Ten Ratings: 2-4 77.787

Neutral Ratings (0-2): 63.600 (259)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 0-1 67.475
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 71.475
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 67.475

League Power Rankings (11-8): 78.338 (123)
0-0 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
7-6 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 7-2 76.959
Away Ratings: 4-5 79.780
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 67.475
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 76.108

Non-League Power Ratings (1-7): 71.897 (216)
0-2 v #1-25
1-2 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 1-2 75.725
Away Ratings: 0-4 74.287
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 71.475
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 77.225

Wins Power Rankings: 77.756 (131)
1-2 v #1-25
1-2 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
7-7 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 8-4 79.475
Away Ratings: 4-9 78.069
Neutral Ratings: 0-2 58.256
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 75.241

Rankings: Points: 76.606 (139)
0-2 v #1-25
2-3 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
7-7 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 8-4 76.528
Away Ratings: 4-9 77.793
Neutral Ratings: 0-2 67.793
League Power Rankings: 11-8 77.340
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-7 73.465
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 75.582

Last Ten Ratings (4-6): 75.303 (166)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
3-4 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 2-1 75.584
Away Ratings: 2-4 77.787
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 67.475
League Power Rankings: 4-6 76.108
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-0 77.225

Home Advantage: 6.3549 (107)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0566 (117)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1802 (114)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.3077 (109)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.4432 (100)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.6205 (87)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8768 (53)

Upward Stability: 1.3311 (23)

Downward Stability: 1.2300 (103)

RPI
RPI: 0.5038 (146)
1-1 v #1-25
1-4 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
6-7 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-327

RPI Home (8-4): 0.5811 (85)
1-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
2-1 v #51-100
3-2 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-327

RPI Away (4-9): 0.4500 (181)
0-2 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-2 v #101-200
2-3 v #201-327

RPI Neutral (0-2): 0.3880 (230)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327

RPI League (11-8): 0.5148 (134)
0-0 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
7-5 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-327

RPI Non-League (1-7): 0.4804 (186)
0-3 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5236 (90)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/22/2002	Away	L 46-73	vs. #35 Purdue
11/24/2002	Away	L 49-64	vs. #26 Maryland
11/30/2002	Away	L 48-51	vs. #211 Wright St
12/4/2002	Home	W 78-63	vs. #29 Dayton
12/7/2002	Home	W 44-39	vs. #76 Western Mich
12/9/2002	Away	L 58-68	vs. #17 Xavier
12/14/2002	Home	L 42-59	vs. #20 Butler
12/28/2002	Neut	L 54-66	vs. #52 Cincinnati
12/30/2002	Home	L 58-66	vs. #163 Evansville
1/4/2003	Home	W 71-62	vs. #36 Central Mich
1/8/2003	Home	L 52-60	vs. #74 Kent
1/14/2003	Away	L 51-61	vs. #137 Toledo
1/18/2003	Away	W 77-65	vs. #131 Ohio
1/20/2003	Home	W 74-59	vs. #167 Akron
1/25/2003	Home	W 58-56	vs. #147 Ball St
1/29/2003	Away	W 73-58	vs. #172 Eastern Mich
2/1/2003	Home	W 57-55	vs. #266 Buffalo
2/3/2003	Away	L 60-70	vs. #74 Kent
2/9/2003	Away	L 70-78	vs. #147 Ball St
2/15/2003	Home	W 69-49	vs. #160 Marshall
2/20/2003	Away	W 55-53	vs. #167 Akron
2/22/2003	Away	W 63-35	vs. #266 Buffalo
2/25/2003	Home	W 59-56	vs. #104 Northern Ill
3/1/2003	Away	L 48-51	vs. #158 Bowling Green
3/5/2003	Home	L 56-64	vs. #131 Ohio
3/8/2003	Away	L 51-58	vs. #160 Marshall
3/13/2003	Neut	L 55-65	vs. #131 Ohio

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)