NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

SAN DIEGO ST
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 14-13
Power Rating: 78.970
Ranking: 107

0-1 v #1-25
1-4 v #26-50
4-5 v #51-100
5-3 v #101-200
4-0 v #201-327

Home Ratings (9-6): 78.290 (118)
0-1 v #1-25
1-2 v #26-50
3-2 v #51-100
2-1 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 4-3 78.251
Non-League Power Ratings: 5-3 77.657
Last Ten Ratings: 3-1 79.376

Away Ratings (5-7): 79.774 (88)
0-0 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
3-2 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 2-6 81.423
Non-League Power Ratings: 3-1 79.110
Last Ten Ratings: 1-5 81.610

Neutral Ratings (0-0): 78.970 (124)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 0-0 78.970
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-0 78.970
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 78.970

League Power Rankings (6-9): 78.954 (109)
0-0 v #1-25
1-3 v #26-50
2-5 v #51-100
3-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 4-3 78.251
Away Ratings: 2-6 81.423
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 78.970
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 80.696

Non-League Power Ratings (8-4): 78.993 (106)
0-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
2-0 v #51-100
2-2 v #101-200
4-0 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 5-3 77.657
Away Ratings: 3-1 79.110
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 78.970
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 78.970

Wins Power Rankings: 79.509 (106)
0-1 v #1-25
1-4 v #26-50
4-5 v #51-100
5-3 v #101-200
4-0 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 9-6 78.579
Away Ratings: 5-7 80.634
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 79.509
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 80.649

Rankings: Points: 78.298 (104)
0-1 v #1-25
1-4 v #26-50
3-5 v #51-100
5-2 v #101-200
5-1 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 9-6 77.727
Away Ratings: 5-7 78.977
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 78.298
League Power Rankings: 6-9 78.372
Non-League Power Ratings: 8-4 78.173
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 78.845

Last Ten Ratings (4-6): 79.813 (95)
0-0 v #1-25
0-3 v #26-50
0-3 v #51-100
4-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 3-1 79.376
Away Ratings: 1-5 81.610
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 78.970
League Power Rankings: 4-6 80.696
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-0 78.970

Home Advantage: 2.4721 (198)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0651 (100)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1972 (93)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.3311 (90)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.4547 (91)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.6198 (88)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8605 (78)

Upward Stability: 1.1611 (132)

Downward Stability: 1.2007 (129)

RPI
RPI: 0.5298 (101)
1-4 v #1-25
0-4 v #26-50
4-2 v #51-100
4-2 v #101-200
5-1 v #201-327

RPI Home (9-6): 0.5621 (114)
1-2 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
3-2 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-327

RPI Away (5-7): 0.4892 (100)
0-4 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-1 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-327

RPI Neutral (0-0): 0.5298 (119)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327

RPI League (6-9): 0.5326 (102)
1-3 v #1-25
0-3 v #26-50
2-2 v #51-100
3-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327

RPI Non-League (8-4): 0.5248 (115)
1-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
2-2 v #101-200
5-0 v #201-327

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5336 (75)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/23/2002	Home	L 70-75	vs. #117 Eastern Wash
11/27/2002	Away	L 86-91	vs. #196 Portland
11/30/2002	Away	W 65-62	vs. #177 Cal Poly
12/7/2002	Home	L 81-89	vs. #3 Arizona
12/10/2002	Away	W 64-55	vs. #295 Long Beach St
12/14/2002	Home	W 60-49	vs. #100 Hawaii
12/21/2002	Away	W 71-61	vs. #195 Houston
12/28/2002	Home	W 91-75	vs. #285 Fla Atlantic
12/30/2002	Home	W 74-58	vs. #262 IPFW
1/3/2003	Home	W 79-69	vs. #208 Loyola Marymnt
1/6/2003	Home	L 63-75	vs. #45 Texas Tech
1/8/2003	Home	W 78-72	vs. #79 San Diego
1/11/2003	Away	W 63-48	vs. #162 Air Force
1/18/2003	Home	W 58-56	vs. #30 Utah
1/20/2003	Home	L 69-80	vs. #32 BYU
1/25/2003	Away	L 62-66	vs. #188 New Mexico
2/1/2003	Home	L 69-72	vs. #83 Colorado St
2/3/2003	Home	W 80-70	vs. #77 Wyoming
2/11/2003	Home	L 64-79	vs. #59 Unlv
2/15/2003	Away	L 62-76	vs. #30 Utah
2/17/2003	Away	L 64-66	vs. #32 BYU
2/22/2003	Home	W 67-53	vs. #162 Air Force
2/24/2003	Home	W 89-73	vs. #188 New Mexico
3/1/2003	Away	W 86-73	vs. #77 Wyoming
3/3/2003	Away	L 89-102	vs. #83 Colorado St
3/8/2003	Away	L 72-83	vs. #59 Unlv
3/13/2003	Away	L 67-83	vs. #59 Unlv

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)