NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

WASHINGTON ST
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 7-20
Power Rating: 72.314
Ranking: 207

0-2 v #1-25
0-9 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
3-5 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-327

Home Ratings (6-8): 74.173 (177)
0-1 v #1-25
0-5 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
3-1 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 2-7 73.087
Non-League Power Ratings: 4-1 76.408
Last Ten Ratings: 2-3 75.345

Away Ratings (0-12): 66.564 (279)
0-1 v #1-25
0-4 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
0-4 v #101-200
0-1 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 0-9 71.158
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-3 73.189
Last Ten Ratings: 0-5 69.877

Neutral Ratings (1-0): 77.314 (136)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-327
League Power Rankings: 0-0 72.314
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-0 71.064
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 72.314

League Power Rankings (2-16): 70.861 (225)
0-2 v #1-25
0-8 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
2-4 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 2-7 73.087
Away Ratings: 0-9 71.158
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 72.314
Last Ten Ratings: 2-8 73.627

Non-League Power Ratings (5-4): 74.970 (166)
0-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 4-1 76.408
Away Ratings: 0-3 73.189
Neutral Ratings: 1-0 71.064
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 72.314

Wins Power Rankings: 71.802 (206)
0-2 v #1-25
0-9 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
3-5 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 6-8 74.068
Away Ratings: 0-12 60.490
Neutral Ratings: 1-0 82.302
Last Ten Ratings: 2-8 73.349

Rankings: Points: 72.923 (203)
0-2 v #1-25
0-9 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
3-5 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 6-8 74.087
Away Ratings: 0-12 70.470
Neutral Ratings: 1-0 73.298
League Power Rankings: 2-16 71.869
Non-League Power Ratings: 5-4 74.908
Last Ten Ratings: 2-8 73.087

Last Ten Ratings (2-8): 73.252 (190)
0-1 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
0-3 v #51-100
2-2 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327
Home Ratings: 2-3 75.345
Away Ratings: 0-5 69.877
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 72.314
League Power Rankings: 2-8 73.627
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-0 72.314

Home Advantage: 10.738 (32)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0937 (60)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.2469 (64)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.3851 (67)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.5161 (64)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.6664 (61)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8782 (52)

Upward Stability: 1.0091 (253)

Downward Stability: 0.7544 (297)

RPI
RPI: 0.4578 (236)
0-4 v #1-25
0-7 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
2-7 v #101-200
4-1 v #201-327

RPI Home (6-8): 0.5091 (203)
0-2 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
4-1 v #201-327

RPI Away (0-12): 0.3939 (276)
0-2 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-5 v #51-100
0-4 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327

RPI Neutral (1-0): 0.0 (315)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-327

RPI League (2-16): 0.4429 (261)
0-2 v #1-25
0-4 v #26-50
0-4 v #51-100
2-6 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-327

RPI Non-League (5-4): 0.4850 (178)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
4-1 v #201-327

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5240 (88)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/23/2002	Home	W 76-68	vs. #277 San Jose St
11/25/2002	Home	W 72-66	vs. #261 Southern Utah
11/30/2002	Away	L 83-86	vs. #183 TCU
12/4/2002	Away	L 58-62	vs. #214 Idaho
12/7/2002	Home	L 104-110	vs. #40 Gonzaga
12/10/2002	Home	W 73-61	vs. #193 Montana
12/14/2002	Away	L 79-90	vs. #83 Colorado St
12/21/2002	Neut	W 78-71	vs. #299 High Point
12/23/2002	Home	W 69-66	vs. #80 Fresno St
1/2/2003	Home	L 90-97	vs. #92 USC
1/4/2003	Home	L 83-98	vs. #118 UCLA
1/9/2003	Away	L 69-82	vs. #3 Arizona
1/11/2003	Away	L 55-96	vs. #34 Arizona St
1/16/2003	Home	L 68-73	vs. #28 Stanford
1/18/2003	Home	L 63-76	vs. #31 California
1/23/2003	Away	L 48-63	vs. #128 Oregon St
1/25/2003	Away	L 66-76	vs. #44 Oregon
1/31/2003	Away	L 67-81	vs. #144 Washington
2/6/2003	Home	L 54-87	vs. #34 Arizona St
2/8/2003	Home	L 62-75	vs. #3 Arizona
2/13/2003	Away	L 53-63	vs. #31 California
2/15/2003	Away	L 54-72	vs. #28 Stanford
2/20/2003	Home	L 70-89	vs. #44 Oregon
2/22/2003	Home	W 75-71	vs. #128 Oregon St
3/1/2003	Home	W 98-76	vs. #144 Washington
3/6/2003	Away	L 71-86	vs. #118 UCLA
3/8/2003	Away	L 68-86	vs. #92 USC

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)