NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team

By division
Last Updated Tue Apr 06 11:38:58 EDT 2004

Home Advantage = 3.7988

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
1. Maryland (20-12)0.2003
2. North Carolina (19-11)0.1994
3. Georgia Tech (28-10)0.1972
4. Clemson (10-18)0.1964
5. Wake Forest (21-10)0.1875
6. Florida St (18-14)0.1832
7. North Carolina St (21-10)0.1797
8. Virginia (18-13)0.1744
9. Duke (31-6)0.1690
10. Georgia (16-14)0.1573

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
11. Alabama (20-13)0.1546
12. Connecticut (33-6)0.1512
13. Villanova (17-16)0.1436
14. Notre Dame (19-13)0.1417
15. Texas (25-8)0.1416
16. Syracuse (23-8)0.1412
17. St Johns (6-21)0.1393
18. Texas Tech (22-11)0.1393
19. Pittsburgh (30-5)0.1373
20. Boston College (24-10)0.1362

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
21. Florida (20-11)0.1336
22. Tennessee (15-14)0.1320
23. Vanderbilt (23-10)0.1295
24. Kansas (23-9)0.1295
25. Seton Hall (20-10)0.1285
26. Providence (20-9)0.1279
27. Oklahoma (20-10)0.1275
28. Oklahoma St (30-4)0.1243
29. Missouri (16-14)0.1239
30. Michigan St (18-12)0.1210

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
31. Virginia Tech (15-14)0.1196
32. Arkansas (12-16)0.1188
33. Xavier (26-11)0.1172
34. Texas A&M (7-21)0.1161
35. Kentucky (27-5)0.1151
36. Mississippi (13-15)0.1146
37. Iowa St (19-13)0.1146
38. Baylor (7-20)0.1142
39. South Carolina (23-11)0.1140
40. Indiana (14-15)0.1134

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
41. Colorado (17-11)0.1122
42. LSU (18-11)0.1118
43. Wisconsin (25-7)0.1111
44. Georgetown (13-15)0.1109
45. West Virginia (17-14)0.1107
46. Rutgers (19-13)0.1099
47. Illinois (26-7)0.1095
48. Miami Fla (13-16)0.1068
49. Richmond (20-13)0.1056
50. Massachusetts (10-19)0.1055

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
51. Auburn (14-14)0.1051
52. Louisville (20-10)0.1049
53. Geo Washington (18-12)0.1042
54. St Bonaventure (7-21)0.1030
55. Purdue (17-14)0.1025
56. Memphis (22-8)0.1024
57. Nebraska (18-13)0.1024
58. Penn St (9-19)0.1023
59. Cincinnati (25-7)0.0998
60. Washington St (12-16)0.0984

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
61. Uab (22-10)0.0980
62. Iowa (16-13)0.0979
63. St Louis (19-13)0.0974
64. Mississippi St (26-4)0.0970
65. Fordham (6-22)0.0968
66. Kansas St (14-14)0.0965
67. DePaul (22-10)0.0960
68. St Josephs (30-2)0.0959
69. Washington (19-12)0.0959
70. Nevada (24-9)0.0947

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
71. Northwestern (14-15)0.0934
72. Charlotte (21-9)0.0934
73. Oregon (18-13)0.0930
74. Ohio St (14-16)0.0926
75. BYU (18-9)0.0919
76. California (13-15)0.0907
77. Minnesota (12-18)0.0896
78. Michigan (23-11)0.0880
79. UCLA (11-17)0.0872
80. South Florida (7-20)0.0867

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
81. Rhode Island (20-13)0.0862
82. USC (13-15)0.0844
83. Temple (15-14)0.0844
84. Marquette (18-12)0.0829
85. Dayton (24-9)0.0813
86. SMU (12-18)0.0810
87. Arizona (20-10)0.0808
88. Duquesne (12-17)0.0805
89. Oregon St (11-16)0.0799
90. TCU (12-17)0.0797

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
91. Arizona St (10-17)0.0794
92. Tulane (10-17)0.0794
93. Portland (11-17)0.0779
94. Louisiana Tech (13-15)0.0776
95. East Carolina (12-14)0.0767
96. Unlv (17-13)0.0758
97. Pepperdine (15-16)0.0749
98. Davidson (14-12)0.0747
99. Utah (22-9)0.0746
100. SO Mississippi (12-15)0.0746

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
101. Tulsa (9-20)0.0731
102. San Diego St (12-16)0.0731
103. Rice (21-11)0.0727
104. Hawaii (20-12)0.0727
105. La Salle (10-20)0.0720
106. Texas El Paso (22-8)0.0715
107. San Francisco (16-14)0.0707
108. Houston (9-18)0.0692
109. Stanford (30-2)0.0668
110. Fresno St (13-15)0.0665

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
111. St Marys CA (16-12)0.0660
112. New Mexico (12-14)0.0654
113. San Jose St (5-22)0.0653
114. Colorado St (12-15)0.0652
115. Gonzaga (28-3)0.0638
116. Ul Lafayette (18-9)0.0637
117. Santa Clara (15-16)0.0633
118. Pacific (24-8)0.0627
119. Hofstra (14-15)0.0614
120. Boise St (21-10)0.0607

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
121. Wisc Milwaukee (19-11)0.0597
122. San Diego (3-26)0.0593
123. Mercer (11-18)0.0590
124. Eastern Wash (16-13)0.0583
125. William & Mary (7-21)0.0573
126. Wofford (6-20)0.0570
127. Wyoming (11-16)0.0568
128. Air Force (22-7)0.0559
129. Texas A&M-CC (11-11)0.0553
130. Illinois St (9-19)0.0553

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
131. Samford (8-16)0.0551
132. Toledo (20-11)0.0551
133. Valparaiso (17-13)0.0544
134. Chicago St (11-20)0.0542
135. Appalachian St (8-21)0.0541
136. Tennessee St (6-20)0.0538
137. NC Wilmington (15-15)0.0536
138. Youngstown St (7-20)0.0523
139. Tenn Martin (8-18)0.0513
140. VA Commonwealth (23-8)0.0512

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
141. Elon (10-18)0.0512
142. IPFW (2-24)0.0508
143. Austin Peay (20-10)0.0507
144. Idaho (13-16)0.0505
145. Savannah St (4-23)0.0505
146. Detroit (19-11)0.0502
147. Northern Iowa (20-10)0.0502
148. South Alabama (10-16)0.0501
149. Marshall (12-17)0.0500
150. Evansville (7-22)0.0498

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
151. Ball St (13-15)0.0498
152. Iona (11-18)0.0496
153. Oakland (11-17)0.0495
154. Yale (11-15)0.0492
155. Princeton (19-8)0.0488
156. TX Pan American (10-14)0.0488
157. Old Dominion (17-12)0.0484
158. Liberty (17-15)0.0481
159. Loyola Chi (9-20)0.0477
160. Fairfield (19-11)0.0474

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
161. Tennessee Tech (10-15)0.0469
162. Loyola Marymnt (14-14)0.0460
163. George Mason (23-10)0.0455
164. Montana (8-18)0.0443
165. Murray St (25-6)0.0441
166. Siena (14-16)0.0440
167. New Orleans (16-14)0.0440
168. Manhattan (25-6)0.0437
169. Wichita St (20-11)0.0437
170. Drexel (18-11)0.0436

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
171. Southern Utah (8-18)0.0435
172. Eastern KY (12-15)0.0435
173. Central Mich (5-24)0.0434
174. Central Florida (24-6)0.0433
175. NC Greensboro (10-17)0.0433
176. SW Missouri St (19-14)0.0431
177. Wisc Green Bay (16-11)0.0428
178. Bradley (15-15)0.0427
179. Southern Ill (25-5)0.0426
180. Drake (11-16)0.0424

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
181. Chattanooga (16-11)0.0421
182. NC Asheville (7-20)0.0417
183. Akron (13-15)0.0408
184. Miami Ohio (17-11)0.0407
185. Gardner-Webb (7-20)0.0395
186. Creighton (20-9)0.0394
187. Indiana St (9-19)0.0392
188. Florida Intl (3-22)0.0390
189. Morehead St (13-13)0.0389
190. Canisius (10-19)0.0389

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
191. Cleveland St (2-25)0.0387
192. Belmont (20-9)0.0383
193. Marist (6-22)0.0377
194. Florida A&M (15-17)0.0374
195. Eastern Ill (4-20)0.0371
196. Coll Of Charltn (19-9)0.0371
197. Stetson (10-15)0.0370
198. Illinois Chi (24-8)0.0368
199. CS Northridge (13-16)0.0368
200. New Hampshire (10-20)0.0366

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
201. Northern Ill (8-19)0.0363
202. UC Irvine (10-17)0.0358
203. Towson (8-21)0.0357
204. Denver (13-13)0.0356
205. Butler (15-14)0.0355
206. Ohio (10-20)0.0355
207. Bowling Green (12-17)0.0353
208. Pennsylvania (17-10)0.0353
209. Tex San Antonio (16-13)0.0353
210. UC Santa Barbara (15-12)0.0353

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
211. McNeese St (8-16)0.0352
212. New Mexico St (11-14)0.0350
213. Georgia St (18-9)0.0350
214. Brown (13-13)0.0348
215. St Peters (17-12)0.0348
216. Delaware (16-12)0.0348
217. Middle Tenn St (15-12)0.0348
218. Vermont (22-9)0.0343
219. Western KY (13-13)0.0341
220. Sacred Heart (12-15)0.0339

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
221. UC Riverside (10-17)0.0334
222. Northwestern St (8-17)0.0334
223. James Madison (7-21)0.0333
224. Western Ill (3-24)0.0332
225. Fla Atlantic (7-19)0.0332
226. Cal Poly (10-16)0.0329
227. Kent (21-9)0.0325
228. East Tenn St (24-6)0.0325
229. NO Carolina A&T (3-25)0.0323
230. SE Missouri St (9-16)0.0322

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
231. Alabama St (16-15)0.0322
232. Weber St (13-14)0.0321
233. Western Mich (26-5)0.0319
234. Westrn Carolina (9-15)0.0318
235. Boston U (23-6)0.0317
236. Monmouth NJ (21-12)0.0316
237. Quinnipiac (7-20)0.0315
238. Portland St (9-16)0.0314
239. Eastern Mich (10-15)0.0313
240. Iupui (19-11)0.0312

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
241. Campbell (3-24)0.0309
242. Ul Monroe (9-19)0.0309
243. Lipscomb (5-21)0.0308
244. Coppin St (18-14)0.0308
245. Long Beach St (5-21)0.0308
246. Wright St (14-13)0.0307
247. Harvard (4-23)0.0300
248. CS Fullerton (10-17)0.0300
249. Winthrop (14-12)0.0299
250. Binghamton (14-16)0.0297

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
251. Northeastern (17-11)0.0297
252. Troy St (23-6)0.0293
253. Centenary (14-12)0.0290
254. Lehigh (18-11)0.0285
255. Holy Cross (13-14)0.0285
256. Niagara (22-10)0.0281
257. Sacramento St (11-15)0.0278
258. Delaware St (13-15)0.0277
259. Sam Houston (9-15)0.0274
260. Arkansas Lr (14-12)0.0273

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
261. Coast Carolina (12-15)0.0273
262. Jacksonville (11-15)0.0270
263. Mt St Marys (10-19)0.0269
264. Columbia (9-17)0.0261
265. Buffalo (17-12)0.0261
266. Albany NY (5-23)0.0260
267. MD Eastrn Shore (8-21)0.0254
268. Geo Southern (18-8)0.0249
269. Charleston Sou (4-22)0.0249
270. Utah St (24-4)0.0246

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
271. Ark Pine Bluff (1-26)0.0244
272. Oral Roberts (15-11)0.0244
273. North Texas (11-15)0.0244
274. St Francis PA (13-15)0.0242
275. The Citadel (3-21)0.0240
276. Army (4-21)0.0237
277. Loyola MD (1-27)0.0232
278. Robert Morris (13-15)0.0232
279. Hartford (11-17)0.0232
280. Furman (14-12)0.0231

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
281. Idaho St (11-18)0.0229
282. Alabama A&M (13-16)0.0229
283. Jacksonville St (12-14)0.0228
284. Northrn Arizona (13-14)0.0227
285. Stony Brook (10-20)0.0224
286. Navy (3-23)0.0222
287. Texas Arlington (14-12)0.0222
288. Arkansas St (15-11)0.0215
289. American (18-13)0.0215
290. Prairie View (7-20)0.0212

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
291. Rider (17-13)0.0211
292. VMI (4-22)0.0210
293. Cornell (10-16)0.0199
294. High Point (17-11)0.0196
295. SO Carolina St (17-11)0.0193
296. Nicholls St (2-21)0.0191
297. Wagner (12-16)0.0188
298. Grambling (9-18)0.0186
299. Howard (6-22)0.0185
300. Colgate (13-14)0.0178

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
301. Lafayette (16-10)0.0177
302. Montana St (12-13)0.0171
303. Jackson St (12-17)0.0166
304. Bucknell (12-15)0.0166
305. Maine (18-10)0.0163
306. Umbc (7-21)0.0162
307. Fair Dickinson (16-12)0.0148
308. Miss Valley St (21-6)0.0144
309. SE Louisiana (16-9)0.0144
310. Mo Kansas City (15-14)0.0141

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
311. Morgan St (11-16)0.0140
312. Lamar (7-18)0.0140
313. Hampton (13-17)0.0138
314. Birmingham Southern (18-7)0.0134
315. Central Conn (14-14)0.0131
316. Radford (10-16)0.0129
317. Bethune Cookman (8-21)0.0124
318. Liu Brooklyn (8-19)0.0111
319. Dartmouth (2-24)0.0109
320. SW Texas St (9-14)0.0108

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
321. Texas Southern (13-15)0.0096
322. Southern (11-16)0.0086
323. Stephen Austin (17-9)0.0061
324. Alcorn St (11-18)0.0059
325. St Francis NY (15-13)0.0045
326. Norfolk St (12-16)0.0045
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