NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Downward Stability

By ranking
Last Updated Tue Apr 06 11:39:46 EDT 2004

Home Court Advantage = 3.7988

NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.4338


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Monmouth NJ (21-12)3.9539
33. Fair Dickinson (16-12)3.6729
36. St Francis NY (15-13)3.6576
38. Central Conn (14-14)3.6490
52. St Francis PA (13-15)3.5336
78. Wagner (12-16)3.4068
92. Robert Morris (13-15)3.3358
142. Mt St Marys (10-19)3.1294
250. Liu Brooklyn (8-19)2.5652


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.4302


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Georgia Tech (28-10)4.4405
16. Duke (31-6)3.8500
22. North Carolina St (21-10)3.7381
27. Maryland (20-12)3.6967
41. Wake Forest (21-10)3.6125
87. North Carolina (19-11)3.3602
151. Virginia (18-13)3.0859
164. Florida St (18-14)3.0190
296. Clemson (10-18)2.0690


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 3.2609


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. SW Missouri St (19-14)3.9414
24. Northern Iowa (20-10)3.7325
37. Wichita St (20-11)3.6539
49. Creighton (20-9)3.5504
80. Bradley (15-15)3.4044
104. Southern Ill (25-5)3.2570
195. Drake (11-16)2.8805
204. Illinois St (9-19)2.8356
208. Indiana St (9-19)2.8146
255. Evansville (7-22)2.5386


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.2547


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Boise St (21-10)4.0484
18. Rice (21-11)3.8106
19. Hawaii (20-12)3.7679
21. Nevada (24-9)3.7472
68. Fresno St (13-15)3.4463
83. Texas El Paso (22-8)3.3669
148. SMU (12-18)3.1040
220. Louisiana Tech (13-15)2.7401
239. Tulsa (9-20)2.6297
305. San Jose St (5-22)1.8863


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.2375


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Alabama (20-13)4.0694
12. Florida (20-11)3.9222
13. South Carolina (23-11)3.8830
20. Vanderbilt (23-10)3.7539
65. Kentucky (27-5)3.4561
113. LSU (18-11)3.2245
165. Mississippi St (26-4)3.0159
185. Georgia (16-14)2.9372
199. Auburn (14-14)2.8637
217. Tennessee (15-14)2.7609
260. Mississippi (13-15)2.4951
264. Arkansas (12-16)2.4685


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 3.2073


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Michigan (23-11)4.2047
29. Illinois (26-7)3.6922
73. Wisconsin (25-7)3.4329
91. Michigan St (18-12)3.3376
93. Indiana (14-15)3.3356
108. Purdue (17-14)3.2435
147. Northwestern (14-15)3.1084
152. Iowa (16-13)3.0833
201. Minnesota (12-18)2.8552
212. Ohio St (14-16)2.8015
288. Penn St (9-19)2.1849


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.2039


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Kent (21-9)3.9942
28. Miami Ohio (17-11)3.6936
45. Buffalo (17-12)3.5969
62. Ball St (13-15)3.4632
79. Toledo (20-11)3.4044
89. Akron (13-15)3.3490
97. Marshall (12-17)3.3050
117. Bowling Green (12-17)3.2162
140. Western Mich (26-5)3.1299
143. Ohio (10-20)3.1268
214. Eastern Mich (10-15)2.7779
247. Northern Ill (8-19)2.5882
300. Central Mich (5-24)2.0054


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 3.1639


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. Rutgers (19-13)3.9626
25. Villanova (17-16)3.7065
31. Connecticut (33-6)3.6840
57. Providence (20-9)3.4919
58. Notre Dame (19-13)3.4865
66. Seton Hall (20-10)3.4530
71. Boston College (24-10)3.4354
75. Syracuse (23-8)3.4156
99. West Virginia (17-14)3.2925
150. Pittsburgh (30-5)3.0869
244. Virginia Tech (15-14)2.6117
277. Georgetown (13-15)2.3439
280. Miami Fla (13-16)2.3306
301. St Johns (6-21)1.9931


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 3.1477


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
42. Unlv (17-13)3.6097
48. Utah (22-9)3.5520
110. BYU (18-9)3.2383
130. Air Force (22-7)3.1676
137. Colorado St (12-15)3.1378
176. San Diego St (12-16)2.9682
205. Wyoming (11-16)2.8325
229. New Mexico (12-14)2.6758


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 3.1437


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
7. Oregon (18-13)3.9992
23. Washington (19-12)3.7333
35. Arizona (20-10)3.6612
153. UCLA (11-17)3.0813
154. USC (13-15)3.0709
157. California (13-15)3.0494
174. Washington St (12-16)2.9728
227. Oregon St (11-16)2.6884
237. Arizona St (10-17)2.6398
254. Stanford (30-2)2.5409


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 3.0980


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
14. Iowa St (19-13)3.8781
15. Kansas (23-9)3.8520
40. Texas (25-8)3.6181
69. Texas Tech (22-11)3.4457
88. Colorado (17-11)3.3571
94. Nebraska (18-13)3.3181
98. Missouri (16-14)3.2960
170. Oklahoma St (30-4)3.0028
188. Oklahoma (20-10)2.9187
222. Kansas St (14-14)2.7210
292. Baylor (7-20)2.1302
310. Texas A&M (7-21)1.6378


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 3.0472


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
82. Eastern Wash (16-13)3.3753
95. Northrn Arizona (13-14)3.3180
123. Idaho St (11-18)3.1867
138. Weber St (13-14)3.1353
139. Sacramento St (11-15)3.1345
177. Montana St (12-13)2.9663
232. Portland St (9-16)2.6587
245. Montana (8-18)2.6032


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 3.0203


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. George Mason (23-10)4.0045
90. VA Commonwealth (23-8)3.3437
106. Delaware (16-12)3.2481
107. NC Wilmington (15-15)3.2445
118. Old Dominion (17-12)3.2120
119. Drexel (18-11)3.2053
128. Hofstra (14-15)3.1716
269. Towson (8-21)2.4335
284. William & Mary (7-21)2.2110
293. James Madison (7-21)2.1293


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 3.0116


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
32. Mo Kansas City (15-14)3.6748
43. Iupui (19-11)3.6084
53. Valparaiso (17-13)3.5177
116. Oral Roberts (15-11)3.2175
127. Chicago St (11-20)3.1799
129. Centenary (14-12)3.1681
211. Oakland (11-17)2.8032
258. Southern Utah (8-18)2.5072
315. Western Ill (3-24)1.4273


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 2.9974


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
63. CS Northridge (13-16)3.4619
84. Idaho (13-16)3.3663
120. UC Santa Barbara (15-12)3.2049
124. Pacific (24-8)3.1862
145. UC Riverside (10-17)3.1176
146. CS Fullerton (10-17)3.1131
194. Cal Poly (10-16)2.8838
196. UC Irvine (10-17)2.8728
215. Utah St (24-4)2.7777
303. Long Beach St (5-21)1.9894


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 2.9857


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
26. DePaul (22-10)3.7002
46. Louisville (20-10)3.5756
55. St Louis (19-13)3.5036
56. Uab (22-10)3.4963
60. Cincinnati (25-7)3.4733
101. Charlotte (21-9)3.2751
115. Marquette (18-12)3.2200
121. Memphis (22-8)3.1921
198. TCU (12-17)2.8706
228. SO Mississippi (12-15)2.6826
278. Houston (9-18)2.3373
282. East Carolina (12-14)2.2776
291. South Florida (7-20)2.1359
298. Tulane (10-17)2.0590


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 2.9430


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Xavier (26-11)4.0239
34. Dayton (24-9)3.6628
74. Richmond (20-13)3.4247
76. Rhode Island (20-13)3.4141
100. Temple (15-14)3.2877
126. Geo Washington (18-12)3.1802
224. La Salle (10-20)2.7043
246. Massachusetts (10-19)2.5972
251. Duquesne (12-17)2.5615
273. St Josephs (30-2)2.3952
295. St Bonaventure (7-21)2.0723
302. Fordham (6-22)1.9915


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 2.9345


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
30. New Orleans (16-14)3.6908
111. Middle Tenn St (15-12)3.2351
135. Arkansas St (15-11)3.1571
141. Denver (13-13)3.1299
144. Western KY (13-13)3.1204
156. North Texas (11-15)3.0655
163. Arkansas Lr (14-12)3.0309
172. Ul Lafayette (18-9)2.9927
197. South Alabama (10-16)2.8713
216. New Mexico St (11-14)2.7652
320. Florida Intl (3-22)1.2205


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.8742


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
39. Florida A&M (15-17)3.6433
67. Coppin St (18-14)3.4510
114. Norfolk St (12-16)3.2235
131. Hampton (13-17)3.1673
166. SO Carolina St (17-11)3.0132
178. Delaware St (13-15)2.9651
203. Morgan St (11-16)2.8503
219. Bethune Cookman (8-21)2.7500
233. MD Eastrn Shore (8-21)2.6511
275. Howard (6-22)2.3786
313. NO Carolina A&T (3-25)1.5223


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.8677


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
61. Pepperdine (15-16)3.4667
86. Santa Clara (15-16)3.3623
103. Loyola Marymnt (14-14)3.2698
105. St Marys CA (16-12)3.2557
136. San Francisco (16-14)3.1492
209. Portland (11-17)2.8120
290. Gonzaga (28-3)2.1653
314. San Diego (3-26)1.4604


HORIZON AVERAGE = 2.8560


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
44. Wisc Milwaukee (19-11)3.6054
72. Detroit (19-11)3.4349
81. Illinois Chi (24-8)3.3779
122. Butler (15-14)3.1897
159. Wright St (14-13)3.0393
192. Wisc Green Bay (16-11)2.9005
242. Loyola Chi (9-20)2.6285
287. Youngstown St (7-20)2.1851
319. Cleveland St (2-25)1.3429


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 2.8369


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
109. Maine (18-10)3.2390
132. Vermont (22-9)3.1663
133. Binghamton (14-16)3.1640
169. New Hampshire (10-20)3.0033
179. Hartford (11-17)2.9606
181. Northeastern (17-11)2.9507
189. Stony Brook (10-20)2.9162
253. Boston U (23-6)2.5430
272. Umbc (7-21)2.3968
299. Albany NY (5-23)2.0287


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.8198


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
17. Niagara (22-10)3.8461
64. Fairfield (19-11)3.4591
85. St Peters (17-12)3.3627
102. Rider (17-13)3.2729
180. Siena (14-16)2.9603
187. Iona (11-18)2.9212
206. Manhattan (25-6)2.8188
256. Canisius (10-19)2.5237
297. Marist (6-22)2.0664
325. Loyola MD (1-27)0.9670


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 2.7222


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
47. American (18-13)3.5551
59. Lehigh (18-11)3.4794
155. Bucknell (12-15)3.0668
184. Lafayette (16-10)2.9415
190. Holy Cross (13-14)2.9096
202. Colgate (13-14)2.8530
312. Army (4-21)1.5689
316. Navy (3-23)1.4030


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.7176


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
50. Alabama A&M (13-16)3.5367
54. Alabama St (16-15)3.5149
160. Texas Southern (13-15)3.0373
162. Jackson St (12-17)3.0341
168. Alcorn St (11-18)3.0067
173. Southern (11-16)2.9770
231. Miss Valley St (21-6)2.6705
235. Grambling (9-18)2.6440
294. Prairie View (7-20)2.0842
326. Ark Pine Bluff (1-26)0.6704


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 2.7152


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
51. Tex San Antonio (16-13)3.5357
77. Stephen Austin (17-9)3.4070
96. Texas Arlington (14-12)3.3107
125. SE Louisiana (16-9)3.1827
218. Ul Monroe (9-19)2.7552
234. Sam Houston (9-15)2.6468
252. SW Texas St (9-14)2.5554
259. Lamar (7-18)2.4998
266. Northwestern St (8-17)2.4465
274. McNeese St (8-16)2.3941
324. Nicholls St (2-21)1.1329


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 2.6112


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
161. Austin Peay (20-10)3.0352
167. Morehead St (13-13)3.0070
183. Eastern KY (12-15)2.9482
207. Jacksonville St (12-14)2.8146
223. Murray St (25-6)2.7179
230. Tennessee Tech (10-15)2.6736
243. SE Missouri St (9-16)2.6151
263. Tenn Martin (8-18)2.4819
279. Samford (8-16)2.3355
283. Tennessee St (6-20)2.2589
308. Eastern Ill (4-20)1.8350


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 2.5877


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
70. Liberty (17-15)3.4385
182. High Point (17-11)2.9499
186. Winthrop (14-12)2.9316
191. Coast Carolina (12-15)2.9052
221. Radford (10-16)2.7262
240. Birmingham Southern (18-7)2.6294
285. NC Asheville (7-20)2.2032
306. Charleston Sou (4-22)1.8692
311. VMI (4-22)1.6360


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 2.5869


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
112. Chattanooga (16-11)3.2249
134. Coll Of Charltn (19-9)3.1580
158. East Tenn St (24-6)3.0486
175. Furman (14-12)2.9715
213. Geo Southern (18-8)2.7854
225. NC Greensboro (10-17)2.6961
241. Elon (10-18)2.6292
257. Appalachian St (8-21)2.5214
262. Davidson (14-12)2.4829
267. Westrn Carolina (9-15)2.4356
304. Wofford (6-20)1.9096
323. The Citadel (3-21)1.1796


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 2.3909


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
193. Troy St (23-6)2.8944
200. Belmont (20-9)2.8577
226. Georgia St (18-9)2.6921
238. Central Florida (24-6)2.6306
248. Jacksonville (11-15)2.5715
249. Mercer (11-18)2.5656
276. Stetson (10-15)2.3640
281. Fla Atlantic (7-19)2.2971
286. Gardner-Webb (7-20)2.1993
307. Lipscomb (5-21)1.8494
318. Campbell (3-24)1.3781


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 2.3258


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
171. Pennsylvania (17-10)2.9966
210. Brown (13-13)2.8060
236. Cornell (10-16)2.6427
265. Columbia (9-17)2.4639
270. Yale (11-15)2.4317
271. Princeton (19-8)2.4091
309. Harvard (4-23)1.6510
321. Dartmouth (2-24)1.2053


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 1.8156


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
261. TX Pan American (10-14)2.4897
289. Texas A&M-CC (11-11)2.1793
317. Savannah St (4-23)1.3922
322. IPFW (2-24)1.2012
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