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Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Downward Stability

By division
Last Updated Tue Apr 06 11:39:44 EDT 2004

Home Advantage = 3.7988

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
1. Georgia Tech (28-10)4.4405
2. Michigan (23-11)4.2047
3. Alabama (20-13)4.0694
4. Boise St (21-10)4.0484
5. Xavier (26-11)4.0239
6. George Mason (23-10)4.0045
7. Oregon (18-13)3.9992
8. Kent (21-9)3.9942
9. Rutgers (19-13)3.9626
10. Monmouth NJ (21-12)3.9539

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
11. SW Missouri St (19-14)3.9414
12. Florida (20-11)3.9222
13. South Carolina (23-11)3.8830
14. Iowa St (19-13)3.8781
15. Kansas (23-9)3.8520
16. Duke (31-6)3.8500
17. Niagara (22-10)3.8461
18. Rice (21-11)3.8106
19. Hawaii (20-12)3.7679
20. Vanderbilt (23-10)3.7539

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
21. Nevada (24-9)3.7472
22. North Carolina St (21-10)3.7381
23. Washington (19-12)3.7333
24. Northern Iowa (20-10)3.7325
25. Villanova (17-16)3.7065
26. DePaul (22-10)3.7002
27. Maryland (20-12)3.6967
28. Miami Ohio (17-11)3.6936
29. Illinois (26-7)3.6922
30. New Orleans (16-14)3.6908

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
31. Connecticut (33-6)3.6840
32. Mo Kansas City (15-14)3.6748
33. Fair Dickinson (16-12)3.6729
34. Dayton (24-9)3.6628
35. Arizona (20-10)3.6612
36. St Francis NY (15-13)3.6576
37. Wichita St (20-11)3.6539
38. Central Conn (14-14)3.6490
39. Florida A&M (15-17)3.6433
40. Texas (25-8)3.6181

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
41. Wake Forest (21-10)3.6125
42. Unlv (17-13)3.6097
43. Iupui (19-11)3.6084
44. Wisc Milwaukee (19-11)3.6054
45. Buffalo (17-12)3.5969
46. Louisville (20-10)3.5756
47. American (18-13)3.5551
48. Utah (22-9)3.5520
49. Creighton (20-9)3.5504
50. Alabama A&M (13-16)3.5367

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
51. Tex San Antonio (16-13)3.5357
52. St Francis PA (13-15)3.5336
53. Valparaiso (17-13)3.5177
54. Alabama St (16-15)3.5149
55. St Louis (19-13)3.5036
56. Uab (22-10)3.4963
57. Providence (20-9)3.4919
58. Notre Dame (19-13)3.4865
59. Lehigh (18-11)3.4794
60. Cincinnati (25-7)3.4733

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
61. Pepperdine (15-16)3.4667
62. Ball St (13-15)3.4632
63. CS Northridge (13-16)3.4619
64. Fairfield (19-11)3.4591
65. Kentucky (27-5)3.4561
66. Seton Hall (20-10)3.4530
67. Coppin St (18-14)3.4510
68. Fresno St (13-15)3.4463
69. Texas Tech (22-11)3.4457
70. Liberty (17-15)3.4385

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
71. Boston College (24-10)3.4354
72. Detroit (19-11)3.4349
73. Wisconsin (25-7)3.4329
74. Richmond (20-13)3.4247
75. Syracuse (23-8)3.4156
76. Rhode Island (20-13)3.4141
77. Stephen Austin (17-9)3.4070
78. Wagner (12-16)3.4068
79. Toledo (20-11)3.4044
80. Bradley (15-15)3.4044

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
81. Illinois Chi (24-8)3.3779
82. Eastern Wash (16-13)3.3753
83. Texas El Paso (22-8)3.3669
84. Idaho (13-16)3.3663
85. St Peters (17-12)3.3627
86. Santa Clara (15-16)3.3623
87. North Carolina (19-11)3.3602
88. Colorado (17-11)3.3571
89. Akron (13-15)3.3490
90. VA Commonwealth (23-8)3.3437

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
91. Michigan St (18-12)3.3376
92. Robert Morris (13-15)3.3358
93. Indiana (14-15)3.3356
94. Nebraska (18-13)3.3181
95. Northrn Arizona (13-14)3.3180
96. Texas Arlington (14-12)3.3107
97. Marshall (12-17)3.3050
98. Missouri (16-14)3.2960
99. West Virginia (17-14)3.2925
100. Temple (15-14)3.2877

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
101. Charlotte (21-9)3.2751
102. Rider (17-13)3.2729
103. Loyola Marymnt (14-14)3.2698
104. Southern Ill (25-5)3.2570
105. St Marys CA (16-12)3.2557
106. Delaware (16-12)3.2481
107. NC Wilmington (15-15)3.2445
108. Purdue (17-14)3.2435
109. Maine (18-10)3.2390
110. BYU (18-9)3.2383

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
111. Middle Tenn St (15-12)3.2351
112. Chattanooga (16-11)3.2249
113. LSU (18-11)3.2245
114. Norfolk St (12-16)3.2235
115. Marquette (18-12)3.2200
116. Oral Roberts (15-11)3.2175
117. Bowling Green (12-17)3.2162
118. Old Dominion (17-12)3.2120
119. Drexel (18-11)3.2053
120. UC Santa Barbara (15-12)3.2049

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
121. Memphis (22-8)3.1921
122. Butler (15-14)3.1897
123. Idaho St (11-18)3.1867
124. Pacific (24-8)3.1862
125. SE Louisiana (16-9)3.1827
126. Geo Washington (18-12)3.1802
127. Chicago St (11-20)3.1799
128. Hofstra (14-15)3.1716
129. Centenary (14-12)3.1681
130. Air Force (22-7)3.1676

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
131. Hampton (13-17)3.1673
132. Vermont (22-9)3.1663
133. Binghamton (14-16)3.1640
134. Coll Of Charltn (19-9)3.1580
135. Arkansas St (15-11)3.1571
136. San Francisco (16-14)3.1492
137. Colorado St (12-15)3.1378
138. Weber St (13-14)3.1353
139. Sacramento St (11-15)3.1345
140. Western Mich (26-5)3.1299

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
141. Denver (13-13)3.1299
142. Mt St Marys (10-19)3.1294
143. Ohio (10-20)3.1268
144. Western KY (13-13)3.1204
145. UC Riverside (10-17)3.1176
146. CS Fullerton (10-17)3.1131
147. Northwestern (14-15)3.1084
148. SMU (12-18)3.1040
149. Sacred Heart (12-15)3.0915
150. Pittsburgh (30-5)3.0869

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
151. Virginia (18-13)3.0859
152. Iowa (16-13)3.0833
153. UCLA (11-17)3.0813
154. USC (13-15)3.0709
155. Bucknell (12-15)3.0668
156. North Texas (11-15)3.0655
157. California (13-15)3.0494
158. East Tenn St (24-6)3.0486
159. Wright St (14-13)3.0393
160. Texas Southern (13-15)3.0373

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
161. Austin Peay (20-10)3.0352
162. Jackson St (12-17)3.0341
163. Arkansas Lr (14-12)3.0309
164. Florida St (18-14)3.0190
165. Mississippi St (26-4)3.0159
166. SO Carolina St (17-11)3.0132
167. Morehead St (13-13)3.0070
168. Alcorn St (11-18)3.0067
169. New Hampshire (10-20)3.0033
170. Oklahoma St (30-4)3.0028

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
171. Pennsylvania (17-10)2.9966
172. Ul Lafayette (18-9)2.9927
173. Southern (11-16)2.9770
174. Washington St (12-16)2.9728
175. Furman (14-12)2.9715
176. San Diego St (12-16)2.9682
177. Montana St (12-13)2.9663
178. Delaware St (13-15)2.9651
179. Hartford (11-17)2.9606
180. Siena (14-16)2.9603

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
181. Northeastern (17-11)2.9507
182. High Point (17-11)2.9499
183. Eastern KY (12-15)2.9482
184. Lafayette (16-10)2.9415
185. Georgia (16-14)2.9372
186. Winthrop (14-12)2.9316
187. Iona (11-18)2.9212
188. Oklahoma (20-10)2.9187
189. Stony Brook (10-20)2.9162
190. Holy Cross (13-14)2.9096

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
191. Coast Carolina (12-15)2.9052
192. Wisc Green Bay (16-11)2.9005
193. Troy St (23-6)2.8944
194. Cal Poly (10-16)2.8838
195. Drake (11-16)2.8805
196. UC Irvine (10-17)2.8728
197. South Alabama (10-16)2.8713
198. TCU (12-17)2.8706
199. Auburn (14-14)2.8637
200. Belmont (20-9)2.8577

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
201. Minnesota (12-18)2.8552
202. Colgate (13-14)2.8530
203. Morgan St (11-16)2.8503
204. Illinois St (9-19)2.8356
205. Wyoming (11-16)2.8325
206. Manhattan (25-6)2.8188
207. Jacksonville St (12-14)2.8146
208. Indiana St (9-19)2.8146
209. Portland (11-17)2.8120
210. Brown (13-13)2.8060

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
211. Oakland (11-17)2.8032
212. Ohio St (14-16)2.8015
213. Geo Southern (18-8)2.7854
214. Eastern Mich (10-15)2.7779
215. Utah St (24-4)2.7777
216. New Mexico St (11-14)2.7652
217. Tennessee (15-14)2.7609
218. Ul Monroe (9-19)2.7552
219. Bethune Cookman (8-21)2.7500
220. Louisiana Tech (13-15)2.7401

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
221. Radford (10-16)2.7262
222. Kansas St (14-14)2.7210
223. Murray St (25-6)2.7179
224. La Salle (10-20)2.7043
225. NC Greensboro (10-17)2.6961
226. Georgia St (18-9)2.6921
227. Oregon St (11-16)2.6884
228. SO Mississippi (12-15)2.6826
229. New Mexico (12-14)2.6758
230. Tennessee Tech (10-15)2.6736

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
231. Miss Valley St (21-6)2.6705
232. Portland St (9-16)2.6587
233. MD Eastrn Shore (8-21)2.6511
234. Sam Houston (9-15)2.6468
235. Grambling (9-18)2.6440
236. Cornell (10-16)2.6427
237. Arizona St (10-17)2.6398
238. Central Florida (24-6)2.6306
239. Tulsa (9-20)2.6297
240. Birmingham Southern (18-7)2.6294

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
241. Elon (10-18)2.6292
242. Loyola Chi (9-20)2.6285
243. SE Missouri St (9-16)2.6151
244. Virginia Tech (15-14)2.6117
245. Montana (8-18)2.6032
246. Massachusetts (10-19)2.5972
247. Northern Ill (8-19)2.5882
248. Jacksonville (11-15)2.5715
249. Mercer (11-18)2.5656
250. Liu Brooklyn (8-19)2.5652

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
251. Duquesne (12-17)2.5615
252. SW Texas St (9-14)2.5554
253. Boston U (23-6)2.5430
254. Stanford (30-2)2.5409
255. Evansville (7-22)2.5386
256. Canisius (10-19)2.5237
257. Appalachian St (8-21)2.5214
258. Southern Utah (8-18)2.5072
259. Lamar (7-18)2.4998
260. Mississippi (13-15)2.4951

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
261. TX Pan American (10-14)2.4897
262. Davidson (14-12)2.4829
263. Tenn Martin (8-18)2.4819
264. Arkansas (12-16)2.4685
265. Columbia (9-17)2.4639
266. Northwestern St (8-17)2.4465
267. Westrn Carolina (9-15)2.4356
268. Quinnipiac (7-20)2.4348
269. Towson (8-21)2.4335
270. Yale (11-15)2.4317

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
271. Princeton (19-8)2.4091
272. Umbc (7-21)2.3968
273. St Josephs (30-2)2.3952
274. McNeese St (8-16)2.3941
275. Howard (6-22)2.3786
276. Stetson (10-15)2.3640
277. Georgetown (13-15)2.3439
278. Houston (9-18)2.3373
279. Samford (8-16)2.3355
280. Miami Fla (13-16)2.3306

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
281. Fla Atlantic (7-19)2.2971
282. East Carolina (12-14)2.2776
283. Tennessee St (6-20)2.2589
284. William & Mary (7-21)2.2110
285. NC Asheville (7-20)2.2032
286. Gardner-Webb (7-20)2.1993
287. Youngstown St (7-20)2.1851
288. Penn St (9-19)2.1849
289. Texas A&M-CC (11-11)2.1793
290. Gonzaga (28-3)2.1653

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
291. South Florida (7-20)2.1359
292. Baylor (7-20)2.1302
293. James Madison (7-21)2.1293
294. Prairie View (7-20)2.0842
295. St Bonaventure (7-21)2.0723
296. Clemson (10-18)2.0690
297. Marist (6-22)2.0664
298. Tulane (10-17)2.0590
299. Albany NY (5-23)2.0287
300. Central Mich (5-24)2.0054

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
301. St Johns (6-21)1.9931
302. Fordham (6-22)1.9915
303. Long Beach St (5-21)1.9894
304. Wofford (6-20)1.9096
305. San Jose St (5-22)1.8863
306. Charleston Sou (4-22)1.8692
307. Lipscomb (5-21)1.8494
308. Eastern Ill (4-20)1.8350
309. Harvard (4-23)1.6510
310. Texas A&M (7-21)1.6378

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
311. VMI (4-22)1.6360
312. Army (4-21)1.5689
313. NO Carolina A&T (3-25)1.5223
314. San Diego (3-26)1.4604
315. Western Ill (3-24)1.4273
316. Navy (3-23)1.4030
317. Savannah St (4-23)1.3922
318. Campbell (3-24)1.3781
319. Cleveland St (2-25)1.3429
320. Florida Intl (3-22)1.2205

Team
 Rating 
v. Top 25
v. 26-50
v. 51-100
321. Dartmouth (2-24)1.2053
322. IPFW (2-24)1.2012
323. The Citadel (3-21)1.1796
324. Nicholls St (2-21)1.1329
325. Loyola MD (1-27)0.9670
326. Ark Pine Bluff (1-26)0.6704
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