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Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Power Ratings

By ranking
Last Updated Tue Apr 06 11:38:50 EDT 2004

Home Court Advantage = 3.7988

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 89.374


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Duke (31-6)96.02011-57-03-1
6. Georgia Tech (28-10)93.09111-73-37-0
11. North Carolina St (21-10)91.2766-76-24-1
13. Wake Forest (21-10)90.6786-85-24-0
14. North Carolina (19-11)90.6047-82-23-1
17. Maryland (20-12)89.9616-105-13-1
32. Florida St (18-14)86.5074-101-23-2
40. Virginia (18-13)85.4773-111-16-1
89. Clemson (10-18)80.7553-111-61-1


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 85.359


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Kentucky (27-5)92.6923-110-46-0
10. Mississippi St (26-4)91.9122-35-15-0
22. Vanderbilt (23-10)88.3623-35-55-1
26. Florida (20-11)87.6362-67-34-2
28. Alabama (20-13)87.4164-73-36-2
34. South Carolina (23-11)86.1983-44-35-2
50. Georgia (16-14)84.3524-51-43-4
55. LSU (18-11)84.0720-46-32-2
73. Tennessee (15-14)82.3791-53-61-3
85. Auburn (14-14)81.0790-41-53-2
102. Mississippi (13-15)79.1130-52-52-3
103. Arkansas (12-16)79.0941-51-51-4


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 84.715


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Connecticut (33-6)95.4788-57-16-0
5. Pittsburgh (30-5)94.5416-45-17-0
18. Syracuse (23-8)89.6174-44-46-0
23. Providence (20-9)88.2204-35-13-5
25. Boston College (24-10)88.0033-74-05-3
30. Seton Hall (20-10)87.1903-52-25-3
37. Notre Dame (19-13)85.6272-82-06-4
58. Villanova (17-16)83.7672-82-33-3
60. Rutgers (19-13)83.5611-51-49-2
70. West Virginia (17-14)82.4872-41-34-6
94. Virginia Tech (15-14)80.3521-50-34-2
119. Miami Fla (13-16)77.6370-60-34-4
126. Georgetown (13-15)77.1700-70-21-5
196. St Johns (6-21)72.3670-80-20-6


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 83.623


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Oklahoma St (30-4)95.3206-15-25-1
15. Texas (25-8)90.4955-55-14-2
20. Kansas (23-9)89.4920-64-113-2
29. Texas Tech (22-11)87.2341-73-16-2
45. Oklahoma (20-10)85.0280-72-16-2
51. Missouri (16-14)84.3231-71-38-4
52. Iowa St (19-13)84.2423-32-38-5
54. Colorado (17-11)84.1010-42-37-3
68. Nebraska (18-13)82.7071-31-24-8
91. Kansas St (14-14)80.4691-30-24-7
224. Baylor (7-20)70.3730-50-41-5
236. Texas A&M (7-21)69.6930-50-40-7


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 82.423


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
12. Wisconsin (25-7)90.8062-35-27-2
16. Illinois (26-7)90.3512-54-010-2
36. Michigan St (18-12)85.7940-93-16-1
43. Michigan (23-11)85.2492-41-29-4
66. Iowa (16-13)82.7560-32-43-6
79. Purdue (17-14)81.7133-22-42-4
81. Indiana (14-15)81.2861-73-12-5
93. Northwestern (14-15)80.3572-10-74-4
112. Ohio St (14-16)78.0620-50-45-4
134. Minnesota (12-18)76.6760-31-52-7
174. Penn St (9-19)73.6020-40-41-7


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 80.913


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
19. Cincinnati (25-7)89.5690-36-46-0
27. Memphis (22-8)87.4990-44-26-1
31. Louisville (20-10)86.5722-34-35-3
33. Charlotte (21-9)86.3122-13-52-3
35. Uab (22-10)86.1222-23-54-1
39. DePaul (22-10)85.5051-34-44-3
64. St Louis (19-13)82.8030-33-74-2
80. Marquette (18-12)81.3850-24-53-2
121. East Carolina (12-14)77.5190-10-81-3
135. TCU (12-17)76.6380-31-72-2
140. SO Mississippi (12-15)76.3730-11-51-5
188. Houston (9-18)72.6110-10-62-5
193. Tulane (10-17)72.5000-21-61-3
213. South Florida (7-20)71.3800-20-80-3


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 80.811


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
7. Stanford (30-2)92.8622-02-17-1
48. Arizona (20-10)84.7271-20-26-3
57. Washington (19-12)83.7801-43-11-1
72. Oregon (18-13)82.3940-41-43-1
101. California (13-15)79.2160-32-12-6
108. USC (13-15)78.4010-21-42-4
111. Washington St (12-16)78.2160-40-20-5
133. UCLA (11-17)76.7090-31-43-2
143. Oregon St (11-16)76.2710-21-12-6
154. Arizona St (10-17)75.5390-20-32-5


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 80.449


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
38. BYU (18-9)85.5111-21-25-2
47. Utah (22-9)84.7770-22-25-3
53. Air Force (22-7)84.2330-13-12-3
84. Unlv (17-13)81.1030-20-52-3
120. San Diego St (12-16)77.5620-01-62-7
124. Colorado St (12-15)77.3070-10-33-6
132. New Mexico (12-14)76.7480-12-30-5
141. Wyoming (11-16)76.3470-01-42-6


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 79.935


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. St Josephs (30-2)95.4934-22-09-0
21. Xavier (26-11)88.6754-33-17-4
46. Richmond (20-13)85.0202-50-36-4
56. Dayton (24-9)83.9011-43-14-3
62. Geo Washington (18-12)83.3241-51-35-1
86. Rhode Island (20-13)81.0311-42-13-5
87. Temple (15-14)80.8890-41-23-5
153. Duquesne (12-17)75.5602-20-21-8
180. La Salle (10-20)73.1950-31-20-10
189. Massachusetts (10-19)72.6040-50-22-5
227. St Bonaventure (7-21)70.0230-60-11-8
241. Fordham (6-22)69.4990-30-50-7


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 79.767


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
24. Nevada (24-9)88.1482-23-16-4
42. Texas El Paso (22-8)85.3771-30-14-4
61. Boise St (21-10)83.4671-12-24-3
67. Rice (21-11)82.7431-41-15-3
78. Hawaii (20-12)81.8191-11-34-4
106. Fresno St (13-15)78.7520-20-24-7
115. Louisiana Tech (13-15)77.9590-20-53-4
137. SMU (12-18)76.5691-41-21-6
169. Tulsa (9-20)73.9560-30-32-5
250. San Jose St (5-22)68.8770-20-20-7


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 77.086


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. Gonzaga (28-3)92.6091-31-06-0
96. St Marys CA (16-12)79.8020-30-20-1
127. Pepperdine (15-16)77.1480-40-12-3
130. San Francisco (16-14)76.8790-30-11-3
145. Santa Clara (15-16)76.0640-40-12-5
163. Loyola Marymnt (14-14)74.4250-20-12-1
164. Portland (11-17)74.3901-30-01-4
287. San Diego (3-26)65.3720-20-10-3


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 76.957


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
41. Southern Ill (25-5)85.4330-00-27-2
82. Northern Iowa (20-10)81.2680-11-14-3
88. Wichita St (20-11)80.8330-11-33-4
92. Creighton (20-9)80.3600-00-23-4
107. SW Missouri St (19-14)78.4670-01-34-6
157. Bradley (15-15)75.0400-00-31-6
167. Drake (11-16)74.0390-00-22-7
197. Illinois St (9-19)72.3440-10-21-8
217. Indiana St (9-19)71.1710-00-31-5
221. Evansville (7-22)70.6160-00-30-10


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 74.875


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
74. VA Commonwealth (23-8)82.1720-20-22-1
90. George Mason (23-10)80.6930-20-03-3
109. Old Dominion (17-12)78.3720-20-13-4
110. Drexel (18-11)78.2730-10-02-4
144. NC Wilmington (15-15)76.2020-20-01-6
147. Delaware (16-12)75.9750-10-01-4
155. Hofstra (14-15)75.5170-30-12-2
264. James Madison (7-21)67.4870-00-11-4
266. William & Mary (7-21)67.4760-10-10-6
277. Towson (8-21)66.5810-00-10-7


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 74.753


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
44. Western Mich (26-5)85.0590-11-03-2
95. Kent (21-9)79.9760-11-12-2
100. Toledo (20-11)79.2500-12-30-2
118. Miami Ohio (17-11)77.7610-20-13-2
129. Buffalo (17-12)77.1090-00-11-4
159. Ball St (13-15)74.8061-10-21-2
172. Marshall (12-17)73.7530-12-20-5
181. Akron (13-15)73.0750-20-11-2
184. Bowling Green (12-17)72.7800-00-31-5
212. Ohio (10-20)71.4010-10-21-3
216. Eastern Mich (10-15)71.2390-00-21-3
244. Northern Ill (8-19)69.2840-00-21-4
280. Central Mich (5-24)66.2920-01-30-6


HORIZON AVERAGE = 74.752


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
75. Illinois Chi (24-8)82.0300-20-03-1
83. Wisc Milwaukee (19-11)81.1310-20-22-4
104. Detroit (19-11)78.9490-21-03-4
136. Wisc Green Bay (16-11)76.5850-10-01-6
152. Butler (15-14)75.6730-00-12-6
160. Wright St (14-13)74.7870-00-11-4
206. Loyola Chi (9-20)71.6320-10-20-5
251. Youngstown St (7-20)68.6890-10-01-5
302. Cleveland St (2-25)63.2920-10-00-6


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 74.430


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
59. Utah St (24-4)83.6940-01-11-2
63. Pacific (24-8)83.1582-30-01-1
146. UC Santa Barbara (15-12)75.9810-10-01-5
161. Idaho (13-16)74.7070-10-10-7
170. CS Northridge (13-16)73.8540-00-11-5
200. UC Riverside (10-17)72.1430-00-01-5
207. Cal Poly (10-16)71.5960-00-00-5
209. UC Irvine (10-17)71.4760-10-00-5
210. CS Fullerton (10-17)71.4620-00-00-4
281. Long Beach St (5-21)66.2360-00-00-4


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 73.948


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
77. Ul Lafayette (18-9)81.8910-30-10-2
139. Middle Tenn St (15-12)76.5110-10-01-3
142. Western KY (13-13)76.3240-10-11-4
149. New Orleans (16-14)75.7910-20-01-5
158. Arkansas St (15-11)74.9960-00-00-2
162. Arkansas Lr (14-12)74.4630-10-00-2
165. Denver (13-13)74.1720-10-00-2
182. North Texas (11-15)72.8620-00-01-2
186. New Mexico St (11-14)72.6650-00-20-3
194. South Alabama (10-16)72.4500-10-21-2
309. Florida Intl (3-22)61.3010-10-00-2


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 72.891


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
65. East Tenn St (24-6)82.7850-10-10-1
117. Coll Of Charltn (19-9)77.8500-10-12-1
123. Davidson (14-12)77.3270-20-30-2
125. Geo Southern (18-8)77.2570-00-10-1
131. Chattanooga (16-11)76.7590-10-10-3
166. Furman (14-12)74.1670-00-01-2
222. Westrn Carolina (9-15)70.5200-00-10-3
228. Elon (10-18)70.0080-30-00-2
229. NC Greensboro (10-17)69.9890-10-00-5
238. Appalachian St (8-21)69.5790-20-21-3
272. Wofford (6-20)66.8240-20-00-4
308. The Citadel (3-21)61.6220-00-10-3


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 72.457


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
49. Manhattan (25-6)84.5960-22-01-1
105. Niagara (22-10)78.9020-00-31-2
116. Fairfield (19-11)77.9560-10-31-1
151. St Peters (17-12)75.7550-00-40-1
185. Siena (14-16)72.7190-20-20-2
192. Rider (17-13)72.5060-01-10-0
211. Iona (11-18)71.4270-11-10-3
247. Canisius (10-19)69.2100-10-21-1
290. Marist (6-22)64.9410-10-20-0
323. Loyola MD (1-27)56.5590-00-20-0


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 72.292


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
128. Iupui (19-11)77.1100-10-01-3
148. Valparaiso (17-13)75.9460-30-00-3
156. Oral Roberts (15-11)75.2590-00-11-0
173. Centenary (14-12)73.6120-10-00-1
175. Mo Kansas City (15-14)73.5670-00-01-0
199. Oakland (11-17)72.1840-20-21-1
203. Chicago St (11-20)71.8870-10-20-4
243. Southern Utah (8-18)69.3850-10-20-0
307. Western Ill (3-24)61.6760-10-00-1


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 71.620


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
138. Eastern Wash (16-13)76.5500-20-10-3
179. Weber St (13-14)73.3710-10-20-2
198. Northrn Arizona (13-14)72.2440-00-11-1
215. Sacramento St (11-15)71.2660-10-00-1
219. Montana St (12-13)70.7690-00-10-0
232. Portland St (9-16)69.7570-00-10-3
233. Idaho St (11-18)69.7250-00-10-5
246. Montana (8-18)69.2740-10-11-3


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 71.403


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
71. Central Florida (24-6)82.4270-10-14-2
76. Troy St (23-6)82.0080-00-03-3
99. Belmont (20-9)79.3230-10-14-5
114. Georgia St (18-9)78.0320-00-14-5
223. Mercer (11-18)70.4620-20-11-8
239. Stetson (10-15)69.5540-00-20-6
255. Jacksonville (11-15)68.2130-00-00-7
275. Gardner-Webb (7-20)66.6030-00-10-8
283. Fla Atlantic (7-19)66.1530-00-10-7
303. Lipscomb (5-21)62.8830-00-00-8
316. Campbell (3-24)59.7720-00-10-6


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 70.742


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
69. Murray St (25-6)82.5350-21-11-1
97. Austin Peay (20-10)79.3990-10-32-4
191. Morehead St (13-13)72.5430-10-10-6
225. Eastern KY (12-15)70.3520-10-10-6
237. Tennessee Tech (10-15)69.6350-20-00-6
249. Jacksonville St (12-14)69.0870-00-10-3
252. Samford (8-16)68.6790-10-11-3
253. SE Missouri St (9-16)68.5160-00-20-4
267. Tenn Martin (8-18)67.1870-20-10-4
282. Tennessee St (6-20)66.1550-20-00-6
297. Eastern Ill (4-20)64.0700-10-00-6


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 69.221


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
98. Boston U (23-6)79.3820-21-00-1
150. Vermont (22-9)75.7570-20-01-2
178. Northeastern (17-11)73.5120-00-11-4
187. Maine (18-10)72.6500-00-10-2
242. Binghamton (14-16)69.4160-20-00-3
268. Hartford (11-17)67.1040-10-00-3
289. Stony Brook (10-20)65.0580-10-11-2
292. New Hampshire (10-20)64.8370-10-10-4
299. Umbc (7-21)64.0240-00-00-2
312. Albany NY (5-23)60.4670-10-00-2


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 68.602


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
177. Monmouth NJ (21-12)73.5380-20-10-1
218. Fair Dickinson (16-12)70.8490-00-10-1
234. St Francis NY (15-13)69.7210-00-00-0
235. Central Conn (14-14)69.7020-10-00-0
258. Robert Morris (13-15)68.0250-10-00-0
261. St Francis PA (13-15)67.8300-10-00-1
262. Wagner (12-16)67.6730-00-10-2
273. Mt St Marys (10-19)66.6250-10-20-0
301. Liu Brooklyn (8-19)63.4550-00-00-1


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 68.464


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
113. Princeton (19-8)78.0400-20-10-1
122. Pennsylvania (17-10)77.4800-21-10-2
208. Brown (13-13)71.5440-20-00-1
231. Yale (11-15)69.7960-20-10-1
263. Cornell (10-16)67.5660-10-00-0
278. Columbia (9-17)66.4730-00-10-2
310. Harvard (4-23)60.5920-10-00-1
324. Dartmouth (2-24)56.2250-00-00-0


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 67.860


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
176. Stephen Austin (17-9)73.5590-00-00-0
202. SE Louisiana (16-9)72.0700-00-10-0
204. Texas Arlington (14-12)71.6460-10-00-1
214. Tex San Antonio (16-13)71.3310-20-00-1
260. McNeese St (8-16)67.9190-10-00-3
265. SW Texas St (9-14)67.4820-00-00-2
269. Northwestern St (8-17)66.9140-10-00-2
270. Sam Houston (9-15)66.8600-10-10-0
271. Ul Monroe (9-19)66.8340-10-00-2
293. Lamar (7-18)64.7910-00-00-4
322. Nicholls St (2-21)57.0550-00-10-0


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 67.248


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
171. Birmingham Southern (18-7)73.7750-00-10-1
195. Liberty (17-15)72.3820-20-20-1
220. High Point (17-11)70.7200-00-20-1
240. Winthrop (14-12)69.5450-11-10-0
256. Coast Carolina (12-15)68.1770-10-10-0
285. Radford (10-16)65.5920-00-00-2
295. NC Asheville (7-20)64.5930-20-10-3
311. Charleston Sou (4-22)60.5770-00-20-1
314. VMI (4-22)59.8700-00-20-1


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 67.158


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
190. American (18-13)72.5910-10-11-0
201. Lafayette (16-10)72.1350-00-00-1
226. Lehigh (18-11)70.0380-20-00-0
230. Holy Cross (13-14)69.9510-10-21-0
245. Bucknell (12-15)69.2780-00-10-1
257. Colgate (13-14)68.0660-10-00-0
320. Navy (3-23)57.9350-00-10-4
321. Army (4-21)57.2660-10-00-0


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 67.077


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
183. Texas A&M-CC (11-11)72.8280-10-01-4
205. TX Pan American (10-14)71.6390-10-11-1
298. IPFW (2-24)64.0380-00-10-6
315. Savannah St (4-23)59.8020-00-20-5


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 63.992


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
168. Miss Valley St (21-6)74.0320-00-21-0
259. Alabama St (16-15)68.0140-20-00-0
286. Jackson St (12-17)65.3780-00-10-1
288. Texas Southern (13-15)65.2160-00-00-1
291. Southern (11-16)64.8750-00-00-1
294. Alabama A&M (13-16)64.6330-10-10-0
296. Grambling (9-18)64.1210-00-00-3
300. Alcorn St (11-18)63.5940-00-00-0
313. Prairie View (7-20)60.3800-00-10-3
326. Ark Pine Bluff (1-26)49.6780-00-20-1


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 62.845


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
248. SO Carolina St (17-11)69.0880-00-20-1
254. Coppin St (18-14)68.4280-20-10-1
274. Florida A&M (15-17)66.6180-20-20-1
276. Delaware St (13-15)66.6010-00-20-4
284. Hampton (13-17)65.6230-00-10-2
305. Morgan St (11-16)62.6330-00-10-1
306. Norfolk St (12-16)62.5070-00-00-0
317. Bethune Cookman (8-21)59.2450-00-00-3
318. MD Eastrn Shore (8-21)58.4210-20-00-1
319. Howard (6-22)57.9720-10-00-1
325. NO Carolina A&T (3-25)54.1520-10-10-2
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