NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

BROWN
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 13-13
Power Rating: 71.544
Ranking: 208

0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-5 v #101-200
11-5 v #201-326

Home Ratings (7-4): 70.376 (223)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-2 v #101-200
6-1 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 5-2 68.673
Non-League Power Ratings: 2-2 72.255
Last Ten Ratings: 3-1 64.872

Away Ratings (6-9): 72.349 (194)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-3 v #101-200
5-4 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 5-2 76.571
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-7 67.075
Last Ten Ratings: 4-2 75.458

Neutral Ratings (0-0): 71.544 (186)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 0-0 71.544
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-0 71.544
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 71.544

League Power Rankings (10-4): 74.243 (167)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
2-2 v #101-200
8-2 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 5-2 68.673
Away Ratings: 5-2 76.571
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 71.544
Last Ten Ratings: 7-3 71.747

Non-League Power Ratings (3-9): 67.794 (262)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-3 v #101-200
3-3 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 2-2 72.255
Away Ratings: 1-7 67.075
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 71.544
Last Ten Ratings: 0-0 71.544

Wins Power Rankings: 70.370 (211)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-5 v #101-200
11-5 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 7-4 68.546
Away Ratings: 6-9 71.558
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 70.370
Last Ten Ratings: 7-3 71.394

Rankings: Points: 72.931 (201)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
2-1 v #51-100
0-4 v #101-200
11-6 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 7-4 72.376
Away Ratings: 6-9 73.325
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 72.931
League Power Rankings: 10-4 74.968
Non-League Power Ratings: 3-9 70.001
Last Ten Ratings: 7-3 74.333

Last Ten Ratings (7-3): 72.720 (187)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
6-2 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 3-1 64.872
Away Ratings: 4-2 75.458
Neutral Ratings: 0-0 71.544
League Power Rankings: 7-3 71.747
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-0 71.544

Home Advantage: 1.8262 (222)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0348 (214)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.0993 (241)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.1649 (254)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.2420 (258)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.3697 (258)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.6667 (264)

Upward Stability: 2.8076 (223)

Downward Stability: 2.8060 (210)

RPI
RPI: 0.4669 (208)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
2-5 v #101-200
11-5 v #201-326

RPI Home (7-4): 0.4960 (223)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-2 v #101-200
6-1 v #201-326

RPI Away (6-9): 0.4458 (176)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
1-2 v #101-200
4-4 v #201-326

RPI Neutral (0-0): 0.4669 (176)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-326

RPI League (10-4): 0.4933 (163)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
2-0 v #101-200
8-2 v #201-326

RPI Non-League (3-9): 0.4390 (243)
0-3 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-2 v #101-200
3-4 v #201-326

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.4559 (258)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/17/2003	Away	L 51-89	vs. #15 Texas
11/21/2003	Away	L 53-69	vs. #192 Rider
11/25/2003	Home	W 63-57	vs. #262 Wagner
11/29/2003	Away	L 69-79	vs. #187 Maine
12/3/2003	Home	L 62-66	vs. #86 Rhode Island
12/6/2003	Away	L 62-71	vs. #212 Ohio
12/21/2003	Away	L 43-69	vs. #230 Holy Cross
12/28/2003	Home	L 71-74	vs. #160 Wright St
12/30/2003	Away	W 90-79	vs. #289 Stony Brook
1/4/2004	Away	L 63-70	vs. #268 Hartford
1/6/2004	Away	L 47-86	vs. #13 Wake Forest
1/9/2004	Home	W 79-58	vs. #235 Central Conn
1/16/2004	Away	W 85-75	vs. #231 Yale
1/23/2004	Home	W 77-65	vs. #231 Yale
1/30/2004	Home	L 49-64	vs. #113 Princeton
1/31/2004	Home	W 92-88	vs. #122 Pennsylvania
2/6/2004	Home	L 81-96	vs. #263 Cornell
2/7/2004	Home	W 90-81	vs. #278 Columbia
2/13/2004	Away	W 91-67	vs. #310 Harvard
2/14/2004	Away	W 84-64	vs. #324 Dartmouth
2/20/2004	Away	W 78-74	vs. #122 Pennsylvania
2/21/2004	Away	L 61-68	vs. #113 Princeton
2/27/2004	Home	W 77-54	vs. #324 Dartmouth
2/28/2004	Home	W 100-83	vs. #310 Harvard
3/5/2004	Away	L 74-81	vs. #278 Columbia
3/6/2004	Away	W 69-66	vs. #263 Cornell

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)