NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

LEHIGH
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 18-11
Power Rating: 70.038
Ranking: 226

0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
3-0 v #101-200
15-9 v #201-326

Home Ratings (11-1): 74.452 (158)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
2-0 v #101-200
9-1 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 8-0 72.261
Non-League Power Ratings: 3-1 64.023
Last Ten Ratings: 4-0 72.507

Away Ratings (5-9): 67.659 (261)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
4-7 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 3-4 71.433
Non-League Power Ratings: 2-5 64.554
Last Ten Ratings: 0-3 66.788

Neutral Ratings (2-1): 67.616 (228)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 2-0 71.710
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 51.601
Last Ten Ratings: 2-1 65.773

League Power Rankings (13-4): 73.556 (175)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
3-0 v #101-200
10-4 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 8-0 72.261
Away Ratings: 3-4 71.433
Neutral Ratings: 2-0 71.710
Last Ten Ratings: 6-3 70.359

Non-League Power Ratings (5-7): 63.648 (291)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
5-5 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 3-1 64.023
Away Ratings: 2-5 64.554
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 51.601
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 51.601

Wins Power Rankings: 68.988 (228)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
4-1 v #101-200
14-8 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 11-1 76.175
Away Ratings: 5-9 65.488
Neutral Ratings: 2-1 66.269
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 68.593

Rankings: Points: 70.952 (240)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
3-0 v #101-200
15-9 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 11-1 72.519
Away Ratings: 5-9 70.323
Neutral Ratings: 2-1 68.710
League Power Rankings: 13-4 73.552
Non-League Power Ratings: 5-7 66.085
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 70.605

Last Ten Ratings (6-4): 69.657 (231)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
2-0 v #101-200
4-4 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 4-0 72.507
Away Ratings: 0-3 66.788
Neutral Ratings: 2-1 65.773
League Power Rankings: 6-3 70.359
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 51.601

Home Advantage: 10.599 (32)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0285 (254)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.0664 (297)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.1087 (309)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.1606 (312)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.2601 (315)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.5646 (310)

Upward Stability: 3.0374 (160)

Downward Stability: 3.4794 (59)

RPI
RPI: 0.4736 (195)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
4-1 v #101-200
14-8 v #201-326

RPI Home (11-1): 0.5507 (131)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
3-0 v #101-200
8-1 v #201-326

RPI Away (5-9): 0.4123 (243)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
4-6 v #201-326

RPI Neutral (2-1): 0.4538 (185)
0-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-326

RPI League (13-4): 0.5200 (120)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
5-1 v #101-200
8-3 v #201-326

RPI Non-League (5-7): 0.4111 (277)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
5-5 v #201-326

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.4246 (312)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/21/2003	Home	L 54-67	vs. #301 Liu Brooklyn
11/25/2003	Home	W 64-49	vs. #289 Stony Brook
11/29/2003	Away	L 56-58	vs. #279 Sacred Heart
12/1/2003	Away	L 55-75	vs. #3 Connecticut
12/6/2003	Home	W 88-79	vs. #310 Harvard
12/8/2003	Away	W 60-57	vs. #278 Columbia
12/20/2003	Away	W 60-57	vs. #324 Dartmouth
12/22/2003	Away	L 55-63	vs. #312 Albany NY
12/30/2003	Away	L 59-85	vs. #22 Vanderbilt
1/2/2004	Home	W 64-59	vs. #262 Wagner
1/6/2004	Away	L 76-89	vs. #263 Cornell
1/10/2004	Home	W 80-61	vs. #320 Navy
1/14/2004	Home	W 75-70	vs. #245 Bucknell
1/17/2004	Away	W 63-58	vs. #190 American
1/23/2004	Away	L 104-111	vs. #201 Lafayette
1/25/2004	Away	W 60-45	vs. #321 Army
1/30/2004	Home	W 63-53	vs. #230 Holy Cross
2/1/2004	Home	W 61-56	vs. #257 Colgate
2/7/2004	Away	W 66-38	vs. #320 Navy
2/10/2004	Away	L 63-64	vs. #245 Bucknell
2/13/2004	Home	W 86-65	vs. #190 American
2/20/2004	Home	W 68-63	vs. #321 Army
2/22/2004	Home	W 78-73	vs. #201 Lafayette
2/27/2004	Away	L 48-54	vs. #257 Colgate
2/29/2004	Away	L 57-72	vs. #230 Holy Cross
3/6/2004	Neut	W 62-60	vs. #320 Navy
3/7/2004	Neut	W 60-45	vs. #245 Bucknell
3/14/2004	Home	W 59-57	vs. #190 American
3/16/2004	Neut	L 57-72	vs. #274 Florida A&M

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)