NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

Read the full article -- No comments »

Printable NCAA Bracket

Recent Articles: Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2) Wall St. Journal Competition Results Strategies on filling out that NCAA Tournament Bracket — SmartStats and BracketBrains NCAA Basketball Coaches Gone Wild (1 of 2) Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (1 of 2) 2008 Conference Tournaments: Brackets & Odds March Madness Performance: 2 Myths Dispelled Spreading the Nerd Word

LOUISVILLE
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 20-10
Power Rating: 86.572
Ranking: 31

2-3 v #1-25
4-3 v #26-50
5-3 v #51-100
6-1 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-326

Home Ratings (13-2): 88.724 (29) 1-0 v #1-25 4-1 v #26-50 3-1 v #51-100 3-0 v #101-200 2-0 v #201-326 League Power Rankings: 6-2 86.455 Non-League Power Ratings: 7-0 93.259 Last Ten Ratings: 1-1 84.181

Away Ratings (5-5): 86.888 (29)
1-1 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
2-1 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 3-5 86.084
Non-League Power Ratings: 2-0 97.759
Last Ten Ratings: 1-4 84.705

Neutral Ratings (2-3): 81.970 (85) 0-2 v #1-25 0-0 v #26-50 0-1 v #51-100 2-0 v #101-200 0-0 v #201-326 League Power Rankings: 1-1 86.463 Non-League Power Ratings: 1-2 82.994 Last Ten Ratings: 1-2 84.017

League Power Rankings (10-8): 84.644 (56)
1-2 v #1-25
2-3 v #26-50
1-2 v #51-100
5-1 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 6-2 86.455
Away Ratings: 3-5 86.084
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 86.463
Last Ten Ratings: 3-6 84.880

Non-League Power Ratings (10-2): 91.064 (13) 1-1 v #1-25 2-0 v #26-50 4-1 v #51-100 1-0 v #101-200 2-0 v #201-326 Home Ratings: 7-0 93.259 Away Ratings: 2-0 97.759 Neutral Ratings: 1-2 82.994 Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 78.697

Wins Power Rankings: 88.088 (37)
2-3 v #1-25
4-3 v #26-50
5-3 v #51-100
6-1 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 13-2 90.291
Away Ratings: 5-5 88.963
Neutral Ratings: 2-3 81.783
Last Ten Ratings: 3-7 82.943

Rankings: Points: 85.181 (23) 2-3 v #1-25 4-2 v #26-50 3-4 v #51-100 7-1 v #101-200 4-0 v #201-326 Home Ratings: 13-2 86.912 Away Ratings: 5-5 84.998 Neutral Ratings: 2-3 82.713 League Power Rankings: 10-8 83.920 Non-League Power Ratings: 10-2 87.963 Last Ten Ratings: 3-7 81.666

Last Ten Ratings (3-7): 82.109 (81)
0-3 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
2-2 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 1-1 84.181
Away Ratings: 1-4 84.705
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 84.017
League Power Rankings: 3-6 84.880
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 78.697

Home Advantage: 7.2741 (77)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.1049 (52)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.2734 (45)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.4237 (43)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.5523 (39)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.6981 (32)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8930 (30)

Upward Stability: 3.0342 (163)

Downward Stability: 3.5756 (46)

RPI
RPI: 0.6010 (29)
3-2 v #1-25
3-4 v #26-50
5-3 v #51-100
6-1 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-326

RPI Home (13-2): 0.6490 (12) 3-0 v #1-25 2-1 v #26-50 2-1 v #51-100 4-0 v #101-200 2-0 v #201-326

RPI Away (5-5): 0.5603 (28)
1-2 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
3-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-326

RPI Neutral (2-3): 0.5366 (107) 0-2 v #1-25 0-0 v #26-50 1-1 v #51-100 0-0 v #101-200 1-0 v #201-326

RPI League (10-8): 0.5680 (62)
1-3 v #1-25
3-2 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
4-1 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-326

RPI Non-League (10-2): 0.6496 (6) 2-1 v #1-25 2-0 v #26-50 1-0 v #51-100 4-1 v #101-200 1-0 v #201-326

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5792 (20)



GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/29/2003	Neut	L 69-70	vs. #66 Iowa
12/4/2003	Neut	W 93-63	vs. #142 Western KY
12/7/2003	Home	W 56-40	vs. #230 Holy Cross
12/10/2003	Home	W 80-71	vs. #30 Seton Hall
12/13/2003	Home	W 73-65	vs. #26 Florida
12/20/2003	Home	W 80-63	vs. #97 Austin Peay
12/23/2003	Home	W 107-56	vs. #314 VMI
12/27/2003	Away	W 65-56	vs. #8 Kentucky
12/30/2003	Home	W 92-56	vs. #100 Toledo
1/3/2004	Home	W 91-69	vs. #69 Murray St
1/7/2004	Home	W 76-42	vs. #140 SO Mississippi
1/10/2004	Away	W 85-40	vs. #213 South Florida
1/15/2004	Away	W 76-66	vs. #121 East Carolina
1/17/2004	Home	W 79-58	vs. #193 Tulane
1/21/2004	Home	W 93-66	vs. #19 Cincinnati
1/25/2004	Away	W 65-62	vs. #73 Tennessee
1/28/2004	Home	W 64-48	vs. #188 Houston
1/31/2004	Home	L 70-77	vs. #80 Marquette
2/4/2004	Away	L 58-62	vs. #27 Memphis
2/7/2004	Home	W 73-55	vs. #35 Uab
2/12/2004	Away	L 71-77	vs. #33 Charlotte
2/17/2004	Away	L 46-71	vs. #135 TCU
2/21/2004	Away	L 61-66	vs. #19 Cincinnati
2/25/2004	Home	L 58-60	vs. #39 DePaul
2/28/2004	Home	W 66-60	vs. #27 Memphis
3/3/2004	Away	W 75-48	vs. #64 St Louis
3/6/2004	Away	L 80-81	vs. #80 Marquette
3/10/2004	Neut	W 61-54	vs. #121 East Carolina
3/11/2004	Neut	L 62-64	vs. #19 Cincinnati
3/19/2004	Neut	L 70-80	vs. #21 Xavier

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)