NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

MICHIGAN ST
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 18-12
Power Rating: 85.794
Ranking: 36

0-9 v #1-25
3-1 v #26-50
6-1 v #51-100
6-1 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-326

Home Ratings (12-2): 87.809 (32)
0-2 v #1-25
2-0 v #26-50
4-0 v #51-100
3-0 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 7-1 87.458
Non-League Power Ratings: 5-1 82.075
Last Ten Ratings: 3-1 84.403

Away Ratings (5-6): 85.844 (36)
0-4 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
3-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 5-3 87.165
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-3 78.809
Last Ten Ratings: 2-1 89.106

Neutral Ratings (1-4): 82.489 (77)
0-3 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
1-0 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 1-1 90.083
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-3 83.387
Last Ten Ratings: 1-2 87.184

League Power Rankings (13-5): 88.526 (23)
0-4 v #1-25
2-0 v #26-50
6-1 v #51-100
5-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 7-1 87.458
Away Ratings: 5-3 87.165
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 90.083
Last Ten Ratings: 6-3 87.504

Non-League Power Ratings (5-7): 79.942 (96)
0-5 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 5-1 82.075
Away Ratings: 0-3 78.809
Neutral Ratings: 0-3 83.387
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 82.137

Wins Power Rankings: 87.602 (40)
0-8 v #1-25
3-2 v #26-50
6-1 v #51-100
6-1 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 12-2 90.149
Away Ratings: 5-6 88.399
Neutral Ratings: 1-4 82.204
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 88.450

Rankings: Points: 83.850 (33)
0-9 v #1-25
2-1 v #26-50
8-1 v #51-100
6-1 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 12-2 85.030
Away Ratings: 5-6 82.967
Neutral Ratings: 1-4 83.491
League Power Rankings: 13-5 85.764
Non-League Power Ratings: 5-7 79.971
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 84.721

Last Ten Ratings (6-4): 86.661 (40)
1-4 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
2-0 v #51-100
2-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 3-1 84.403
Away Ratings: 2-1 89.106
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 87.184
League Power Rankings: 6-3 87.504
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 82.137

Home Advantage: 6.8123 (89)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.1210 (30)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.3033 (28)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.4469 (29)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.5700 (28)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.7141 (23)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.9043 (17)

Upward Stability: 3.0389 (158)

Downward Stability: 3.3376 (91)

RPI
RPI: 0.5841 (37)
0-8 v #1-25
3-2 v #26-50
2-0 v #51-100
10-2 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-326

RPI Home (12-2): 0.6332 (20)
0-2 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
3-0 v #51-100
6-0 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-326

RPI Away (5-6): 0.5417 (47)
0-3 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
4-1 v #101-200
1-1 v #201-326

RPI Neutral (1-4): 0.5384 (104)
0-4 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-326

RPI League (13-5): 0.6060 (26)
0-4 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
6-0 v #51-100
3-1 v #101-200
4-0 v #201-326

RPI Non-League (5-7): 0.5533 (69)
0-5 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
2-0 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-326

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5788 (22)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/21/2003	Home	W 64-52	vs. #245 Bucknell
11/25/2003	Away	L 74-81	vs. #20 Kansas
11/29/2003	Home	W 77-52	vs. #122 Pennsylvania
11/30/2003	Home	W 89-81	vs. #39 DePaul
12/3/2003	Home	L 50-72	vs. #1 Duke
12/6/2003	Neut	L 77-80	vs. #45 Oklahoma
12/13/2003	Neut	L 74-79	vs. #8 Kentucky
12/16/2003	Home	W 73-60	vs. #213 South Florida
12/20/2003	Away	L 58-64	vs. #133 UCLA
12/30/2003	Home	W 78-72	vs. #254 Coppin St
1/3/2004	Away	L 83-96	vs. #18 Syracuse
1/10/2004	Away	L 64-77	vs. #12 Wisconsin
1/14/2004	Home	W 76-58	vs. #174 Penn St
1/17/2004	Home	W 71-54	vs. #43 Michigan
1/21/2004	Away	W 73-61	vs. #93 Northwestern
1/25/2004	Away	L 70-76	vs. #79 Purdue
1/28/2004	Away	W 79-78	vs. #134 Minnesota
1/31/2004	Home	W 84-72	vs. #81 Indiana
2/4/2004	Home	W 89-72	vs. #66 Iowa
2/7/2004	Away	W 84-70	vs. #112 Ohio St
2/10/2004	Away	L 51-75	vs. #16 Illinois
2/14/2004	Home	W 69-58	vs. #134 Minnesota
2/17/2004	Home	W 62-55	vs. #79 Purdue
2/21/2004	Home	W 66-56	vs. #93 Northwestern
2/24/2004	Away	W 72-69	vs. #43 Michigan
2/28/2004	Away	W 67-42	vs. #174 Penn St
3/2/2004	Home	L 64-68	vs. #12 Wisconsin
3/12/2004	Neut	W 68-55	vs. #93 Northwestern
3/13/2004	Neut	L 66-68	vs. #12 Wisconsin
3/18/2004	Neut	L 66-72	vs. #24 Nevada

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)