NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

Read the full article -- No comments »

Printable NCAA Bracket

Recent Articles: Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2) Wall St. Journal Competition Results Strategies on filling out that NCAA Tournament Bracket — SmartStats and BracketBrains NCAA Basketball Coaches Gone Wild (1 of 2) Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (1 of 2) 2008 Conference Tournaments: Brackets & Odds March Madness Performance: 2 Myths Dispelled Spreading the Nerd Word

PACIFIC
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 24-8
Power Rating: 83.158
Ranking: 63

2-3 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
10-3 v #101-200
11-1 v #201-326

Home Ratings (11-1): 84.502 (56) 1-0 v #1-25 0-0 v #26-50 1-0 v #51-100 4-1 v #101-200 5-0 v #201-326 League Power Rankings: 9-0 82.783 Non-League Power Ratings: 2-1 76.689 Last Ten Ratings: 4-0 82.877

Away Ratings (9-4): 82.560 (70)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
4-2 v #101-200
5-0 v #201-326
League Power Rankings: 8-1 82.162
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-3 74.017
Last Ten Ratings: 2-0 84.423

Neutral Ratings (4-3): 82.720 (73) 1-2 v #1-25 0-0 v #26-50 0-0 v #51-100 2-0 v #101-200 1-1 v #201-326 League Power Rankings: 2-0 78.064 Non-League Power Ratings: 2-3 81.736 Last Ten Ratings: 3-1 83.627

League Power Rankings (19-1): 86.716 (32)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
10-0 v #101-200
8-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 9-0 82.783
Away Ratings: 8-1 82.162
Neutral Ratings: 2-0 78.064
Last Ten Ratings: 8-0 81.877

Non-League Power Ratings (5-7): 77.755 (124) 2-3 v #1-25 0-0 v #26-50 0-0 v #51-100 0-3 v #101-200 3-1 v #201-326 Home Ratings: 2-1 76.689 Away Ratings: 1-3 74.017 Neutral Ratings: 2-3 81.736 Last Ten Ratings: 1-1 87.564

Wins Power Rankings: 85.675 (57)
1-3 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
10-3 v #101-200
11-1 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 11-1 86.871
Away Ratings: 9-4 85.043
Neutral Ratings: 4-3 85.691
Last Ten Ratings: 9-1 92.863

Rankings: Points: 80.168 (77) 2-3 v #1-25 0-0 v #26-50 1-2 v #51-100 10-2 v #101-200 11-1 v #201-326 Home Ratings: 11-1 81.757 Away Ratings: 9-4 79.535 Neutral Ratings: 4-3 79.355 League Power Rankings: 19-1 81.853 Non-League Power Ratings: 5-7 77.074 Last Ten Ratings: 9-1 82.793

Last Ten Ratings (9-1): 88.181 (30)
0-1 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
1-0 v #51-100
6-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-326
Home Ratings: 4-0 82.877
Away Ratings: 2-0 84.423
Neutral Ratings: 3-1 83.627
League Power Rankings: 8-0 81.877
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-1 87.564

Home Advantage: 5.6842 (116)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0627 (118)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1608 (131)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.2596 (140)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.3598 (149)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.5116 (153)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8077 (146)

Upward Stability: 2.4373 (279)

Downward Stability: 3.1862 (124)

RPI
RPI: 0.5657 (58)
1-3 v #1-25
2-1 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
8-3 v #101-200
13-1 v #201-326

RPI Home (11-1): 0.5929 (65) 1-0 v #1-25 0-0 v #26-50 1-0 v #51-100 4-1 v #101-200 5-0 v #201-326

RPI Away (9-4): 0.5447 (43)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
2-1 v #101-200
7-1 v #201-326

RPI Neutral (4-3): 0.5588 (86) 0-2 v #1-25 1-0 v #26-50 2-0 v #51-100 1-1 v #101-200 0-0 v #201-326

RPI League (19-1): 0.6021 (27)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
8-0 v #101-200
10-0 v #201-326

RPI Non-League (5-7): 0.5095 (134) 1-3 v #1-25 1-0 v #26-50 0-1 v #51-100 0-3 v #101-200 3-0 v #201-326

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5043 (136)



GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/21/2003	Home	W 76-65	vs. #250 San Jose St
11/27/2003	Neut	L 69-82	vs. #1 Duke
11/28/2003	Neut	L 59-62	vs. #247 Canisius
11/29/2003	Neut	W 62-55	vs. #265 SW Texas St
12/6/2003	Home	W 82-76	vs. #24 Nevada
12/10/2003	Home	L 51-66	vs. #106 Fresno St
12/13/2003	Away	L 61-72	vs. #145 Santa Clara
12/20/2003	Away	W 73-71	vs. #293 Lamar
12/23/2003	Away	L 72-73	vs. #130 San Francisco
12/27/2003	Away	L 55-73	vs. #2 St Josephs
1/3/2004	Away	W 73-59	vs. #200 UC Riverside
1/5/2004	Away	W 66-64	vs. #210 CS Fullerton
1/8/2004	Home	W 70-55	vs. #281 Long Beach St
1/10/2004	Home	W 67-52	vs. #209 UC Irvine
1/15/2004	Away	L 51-66	vs. #59 Utah St
1/17/2004	Away	W 63-62	vs. #161 Idaho
1/22/2004	Home	W 88-64	vs. #207 Cal Poly
1/24/2004	Home	W 76-56	vs. #146 UC Santa Barbara
1/31/2004	Away	W 86-78	vs. #170 CS Northridge
2/5/2004	Away	W 64-52	vs. #209 UC Irvine
2/7/2004	Away	W 67-58	vs. #281 Long Beach St
2/12/2004	Home	W 62-56	vs. #161 Idaho
2/14/2004	Home	W 64-60	vs. #59 Utah St
2/19/2004	Away	W 61-58	vs. #146 UC Santa Barbara
2/21/2004	Away	W 76-64	vs. #207 Cal Poly
2/28/2004	Home	W 69-62	vs. #170 CS Northridge
3/4/2004	Home	W 78-62	vs. #210 CS Fullerton
3/6/2004	Home	W 92-57	vs. #200 UC Riverside
3/12/2004	Neut	W 67-61	vs. #161 Idaho
3/13/2004	Neut	W 75-73	vs. #170 CS Northridge
3/19/2004	Neut	W 66-58	vs. #23 Providence
3/21/2004	Neut	L 63-78	vs. #20 Kansas

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)