NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Home Advantage

By ranking
Last Updated Thu Aug 18 11:17:05 EDT 2005

Home Court Advantage = 3.8097

INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 7.3359


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Utah Valley St (14-12)16.341
7. TX Pan American (8-16)14.094
13. IPFW (6-22)12.092
48. Texas A&M-CC (16-8)8.6925
126. Northern Colorado (4-21)5.3791
193. Longwood (1-29)2.8463
241. Savannah St (0-28)0.9972
293. UC Davis (10-17)-1.756


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 6.4593


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
22. Northwestern (15-16)10.648
42. Ohio St (20-12)8.9373
53. Wisconsin (25-9)8.5397
54. Indiana (15-14)8.3650
87. Purdue (7-21)6.7845
103. Michigan (13-18)6.2670
118. Illinois (37-2)5.6593
128. Michigan St (26-7)5.2999
163. Minnesota (21-11)3.6980
167. Iowa (21-12)3.5510
179. Penn St (6-23)3.3019


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 6.3692


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
14. Toledo (15-13)12.088
29. Miami Ohio (18-11)9.9047
37. Akron (18-10)9.3527
68. Northern Ill (11-17)7.6498
71. Ohio (21-11)7.3568
78. Eastern Mich (10-18)6.9855
89. Bowling Green (17-11)6.7001
105. Kent (18-13)6.2361
109. Ball St (14-13)6.0441
140. Buffalo (23-10)4.5128
180. Central Mich (8-18)3.2628
189. Western Mich (19-13)2.9347
277. Marshall (6-22)-0.229


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 6.0143


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
40. Montana St (12-14)9.0084
57. Northrn Arizona (9-17)8.2238
94. Idaho St (7-18)6.4269
98. Sacramento St (10-16)6.3605
102. Montana (16-13)6.2886
115. Weber St (13-16)5.8825
151. Portland St (17-9)4.1535
218. Eastern Wash (7-20)1.7702


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 5.6335


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
15. Colorado St (9-17)11.858
23. Air Force (17-12)10.413
45. New Mexico (25-7)8.8544
65. Utah (27-6)7.7139
97. Wyoming (15-13)6.4065
168. BYU (7-21)3.4858
282. Unlv (16-14)-0.618
309. San Diego St (9-18)-3.046


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 5.4565


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Bradley (13-15)14.430
16. Indiana St (11-20)11.664
24. Evansville (11-17)10.334
50. Southern Ill (26-8)8.6007
111. Northern Iowa (20-11)6.0161
175. Drake (13-16)3.3700
181. SW Missouri St (19-13)3.2238
222. Wichita St (22-10)1.6745
262. Illinois St (16-13)0.2746
324. Creighton (23-11)-5.023


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 5.3970


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
36. Long Beach St (10-20)9.3685
38. Utah St (24-8)9.2826
51. UC Santa Barbara (11-18)8.5556
75. Idaho (7-21)7.0275
112. CS Northridge (17-13)5.9378
129. Cal Poly (4-22)5.0910
142. UC Riverside (8-19)4.4805
156. CS Fullerton (20-11)4.0660
216. UC Irvine (15-13)1.9645
295. Pacific (27-4)-1.803


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 5.2876


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Vanderbilt (20-14)14.195
21. LSU (20-10)11.223
47. South Carolina (20-13)8.7985
80. Arkansas (18-12)6.9397
99. Alabama (23-8)6.3527
117. Georgia (8-20)5.8136
147. Mississippi St (23-11)4.3737
213. Kentucky (28-6)2.0206
226. Mississippi (14-17)1.5101
233. Tennessee (14-17)1.1704
245. Auburn (14-17)0.7999
263. Florida (24-8)0.2526


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 5.1285


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Hartford (8-20)13.075
83. Vermont (25-7)6.8270
106. Binghamton (12-17)6.2052
119. Umbc (10-18)5.6339
137. Stony Brook (12-17)4.6246
138. Albany NY (13-15)4.6144
182. Boston U (20-9)3.2095
200. Northeastern (21-10)2.6002
204. Maine (13-15)2.5037
215. New Hampshire (8-19)1.9906


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 4.7151


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Geo Southern (14-13)13.366
26. Appalachian St (15-12)10.091
59. Westrn Carolina (5-22)7.9940
64. Coll Of Charltn (18-10)7.7212
76. Furman (12-13)7.0222
141. NC Greensboro (15-12)4.5128
149. Wofford (10-14)4.2311
171. East Tenn St (7-19)3.3850
254. Chattanooga (17-11)0.6139
261. The Citadel (8-16)0.2796
264. Elon (7-22)0.2229
304. Davidson (20-9)-2.858


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 4.7147


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. Virginia Tech (16-14)13.253
11. Wake Forest (27-6)12.221
34. Maryland (19-13)9.5413
39. North Carolina (33-4)9.1279
122. Duke (27-6)5.5910
161. Florida St (11-19)3.7805
174. Virginia (14-15)3.3750
232. Clemson (16-16)1.1854
251. Georgia Tech (20-12)0.6351
307. Miami Fla (16-13)-3.007
315. North Carolina St (21-14)-3.842


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 4.3224


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
27. Denver (18-11)10.038
49. Western KY (21-9)8.6040
55. Ul Lafayette (19-11)8.2986
58. Arkansas St (13-13)8.0378
61. New Orleans (12-17)7.9217
63. Arkansas Lr (15-10)7.8298
188. Middle Tenn St (17-12)2.9625
227. Florida Intl (12-17)1.5058
275. South Alabama (7-18)-0.162
283. North Texas (12-14)-0.725
329. New Mexico St (4-24)-6.764


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 4.2533


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
12. Manhattan (13-14)12.153
19. Niagara (20-10)11.429
134. Loyola MD (6-22)4.8795
143. St Peters (15-13)4.4703
173. Canisius (11-18)3.3761
176. Iona (15-16)3.3561
201. Rider (18-11)2.5938
225. Marist (11-17)1.5438
256. Siena (6-24)0.5285
294. Fairfield (15-15)-1.797


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 4.1804


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
60. Missouri (16-17)7.9403
67. Oklahoma (25-8)7.6574
82. Texas (19-11)6.8811
86. Kansas (23-7)6.7902
107. Texas AM (19-10)6.1719
132. Oklahoma St (25-7)4.8919
172. Texas Tech (22-11)3.3813
195. Iowa St (19-12)2.8324
208. Nebraska (14-14)2.1398
248. Baylor (8-19)0.6883
249. Kansas St (15-12)0.6769
265. Colorado (13-16)0.1128


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 4.1092


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Tennessee Tech (15-11)16.203
44. Tennessee St (12-16)8.9125
123. Eastern Ill (11-16)5.5581
144. Austin Peay (13-19)4.4355
154. Jacksonville St (4-22)4.0951
155. Samford (13-13)4.0839
183. Eastern KY (19-9)3.1847
192. SE Missouri St (11-14)2.8485
224. Morehead St (8-16)1.5480
302. Tenn Martin (4-21)-2.642
308. Murray St (15-11)-3.025


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 4.0849


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Oregon St (17-15)15.755
32. Washington (28-6)9.6507
69. Stanford (18-13)7.5330
169. Arizona (30-7)3.4827
185. UCLA (18-11)3.1030
217. Arizona St (18-14)1.8142
228. Washington St (12-16)1.4746
235. Oregon (14-13)1.0946
268. USC (12-17)-0.063
306. California (13-16)-2.994


HORIZON AVERAGE = 3.9191


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
25. Youngstown St (3-23)10.158
46. Wright St (15-15)8.8196
73. Butler (11-15)7.0396
85. Cleveland St (7-17)6.8058
153. Illinois Chi (13-13)4.1099
166. Detroit (13-16)3.5797
287. Wisc Milwaukee (24-6)-1.159
292. Loyola Chi (12-17)-1.753
298. Wisc Green Bay (16-11)-2.327


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.8907


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
62. Pepperdine (16-14)7.8451
70. Gonzaga (26-5)7.4660
100. San Diego (14-13)6.3175
124. St Marys CA (23-9)5.5315
162. Loyola Marymnt (11-17)3.7238
187. San Francisco (17-14)3.0454
205. Portland (14-15)2.4827
325. Santa Clara (14-16)-5.286


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 3.8300


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
30. Dartmouth (9-17)9.7238
66. Pennsylvania (20-9)7.6952
81. Yale (11-16)6.8839
108. Harvard (12-15)6.0647
223. Cornell (12-14)1.5641
239. Columbia (12-15)1.0233
252. Princeton (14-13)0.6296
305. Brown (12-16)-2.944


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 3.7685


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
41. Lafayette (8-19)8.9972
104. Colgate (10-16)6.2467
110. American (16-12)6.0265
127. Navy (8-18)5.3162
165. Bucknell (23-10)3.6339
199. Army (1-24)2.6222
274. Lehigh (13-15)-0.144
299. Holy Cross (25-7)-2.549


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 3.7450


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
33. Hawaii (16-13)9.6092
52. Tulsa (9-20)8.5402
88. San Jose St (6-23)6.7686
131. SMU (13-14)4.9587
160. Louisiana Tech (14-15)3.7890
191. Boise St (15-18)2.8764
197. Rice (17-12)2.7969
203. Texas El Paso (25-8)2.5335
242. Fresno St (15-14)0.9347
326. Nevada (24-7)-5.356


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 3.7434


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
17. George Mason (16-13)11.590
72. William & Mary (8-21)7.1014
136. Delaware (11-20)4.7021
152. Towson (5-24)4.1456
158. NC Wilmington (19-10)3.8512
194. Old Dominion (27-6)2.8327
198. Hofstra (21-9)2.6535
219. VA Commonwealth (19-13)1.7573
271. Drexel (17-12)-0.085
286. James Madison (6-22)-1.115


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 3.6812


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
35. Houston (18-14)9.5267
90. Tulane (9-18)6.5779
95. Cincinnati (25-8)6.4254
113. Charlotte (21-8)5.9113
116. DePaul (20-11)5.8778
130. East Carolina (7-19)4.9894
133. TCU (20-14)4.8852
170. Memphis (22-16)3.4282
177. SO Mississippi (8-17)3.3131
186. Marquette (18-12)3.0949
240. Uab (22-11)1.0174
250. South Florida (13-16)0.6378
276. St Louis (9-21)-0.229
317. Louisville (31-5)-3.918


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 2.7918


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
31. Southern Utah (11-15)9.7128
43. Chicago St (9-19)8.9200
84. Western Ill (9-17)6.8196
190. Valparaiso (15-16)2.9248
237. Oral Roberts (24-8)1.0820
246. Iupui (14-13)0.7907
273. Mo Kansas City (14-12)-0.138
284. Oakland (12-19)-0.963
318. Centenary (2-24)-4.022


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 2.5750


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
79. Nicholls St (3-21)6.9503
114. SW Texas St (10-14)5.8996
150. McNeese St (9-15)4.1652
157. Northwestern St (17-12)3.9650
159. Sam Houston (14-12)3.7914
184. Stephen Austin (9-15)3.1133
202. SE Louisiana (19-9)2.5762
253. Texas Arlington (9-15)0.6144
255. Lamar (14-11)0.5675
258. Tex San Antonio (12-13)0.4972
314. Ul Monroe (5-19)-3.815


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 2.0687


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
92. Fordham (13-16)6.5119
93. Rhode Island (6-22)6.4905
96. Massachusetts (16-12)6.4141
101. St Josephs (24-12)6.3017
120. Dayton (18-11)5.6090
148. Xavier (17-12)4.2616
206. St Bonaventure (2-26)2.4152
229. Richmond (14-15)1.4104
266. Temple (16-14)-0.015
320. Duquesne (8-22)-4.389
321. La Salle (10-19)-4.494
327. Geo Washington (22-8)-5.690


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.9864


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
28. Southern (12-15)9.9269
74. Miss Valley St (13-15)7.0350
139. Alabama St (15-15)4.5211
164. Alcorn St (6-22)3.6401
209. Grambling (12-12)2.1244
214. Texas Southern (10-15)2.0050
244. Jackson St (14-17)0.8553
288. Alabama A&M (16-14)-1.183
319. Prairie View (5-23)-4.090
323. Ark Pine Bluff (5-21)-4.970


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 1.3284


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
125. High Point (11-17)5.4645
135. Winthrop (24-6)4.7626
145. Coast Carolina (8-18)4.4230
230. NC Asheville (9-17)1.3566
259. Liberty (12-15)0.4933
260. VMI (7-18)0.4894
280. Radford (10-16)-0.476
290. Charleston Sou (12-16)-1.417
310. Birmingham Southern (15-14)-3.139


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 1.2990


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
18. St Johns (9-18)11.551
196. Villanova (24-8)2.8292
207. Connecticut (23-8)2.1445
211. Rutgers (9-19)2.0631
220. Boston College (25-5)1.6889
234. Georgetown (19-13)1.0949
236. Seton Hall (12-16)1.0877
247. Notre Dame (17-12)0.7018
279. Syracuse (27-7)-0.400
281. Providence (13-17)-0.578
303. West Virginia (24-11)-2.676
316. Pittsburgh (20-9)-3.917


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.6970


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Morgan St (14-16)14.871
91. NO Carolina A&T (6-24)6.5167
212. Delaware St (19-14)2.0322
243. Hampton (17-13)0.8845
257. Florida A&M (14-15)0.5005
289. SO Carolina St (19-12)-1.255
291. Bethune Cookman (13-17)-1.650
297. MD Eastrn Shore (2-26)-2.289
301. Norfolk St (13-14)-2.617
312. Coppin St (14-15)-3.522
328. Howard (5-23)-5.801


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 0.6524


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
56. Lipscomb (14-12)8.2506
121. Gardner-Webb (16-12)5.6006
210. Belmont (14-16)2.0958
231. Mercer (14-12)1.1931
238. Campbell (2-25)1.0753
267. Troy St (11-18)-0.025
269. Georgia St (13-15)-0.066
272. Stetson (9-17)-0.104
278. Jacksonville (14-13)-0.255
296. Central Florida (21-9)-1.911
330. Fla Atlantic (10-17)-8.674


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.4871


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
20. St Francis PA (14-13)11.372
77. Liu Brooklyn (13-15)7.0138
221. St Francis NY (13-15)1.6886
270. Fair Dickinson (19-13)-0.083
285. Central Conn (12-16)-1.089
300. Mt St Marys (7-20)-2.567
311. Monmouth NJ (16-13)-3.420
313. Wagner (13-17)-3.766
322. Robert Morris (13-15)-4.762
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