NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)
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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Downward Stability

By ranking
Last Updated Thu Aug 18 11:17:33 EDT 2005

Home Court Advantage = 3.8097

MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 2.1254


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Creighton (23-11)2.4765
5. Southern Ill (26-8)2.4696
7. SW Missouri St (19-13)2.4478
9. Wichita St (22-10)2.3800
20. Northern Iowa (20-11)2.2355
98. Illinois St (16-13)1.9375
103. Drake (13-16)1.9265
121. Bradley (13-15)1.8926
175. Indiana St (11-20)1.7771
215. Evansville (11-17)1.7107


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 2.0490


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Ohio (21-11)2.5086
6. Buffalo (23-10)2.4620
8. Western Mich (19-13)2.4253
11. Miami Ohio (18-11)2.3326
12. Bowling Green (17-11)2.2945
23. Toledo (15-13)2.2144
39. Kent (18-13)2.1521
52. Ball St (14-13)2.0812
62. Akron (18-10)2.0411
155. Northern Ill (11-17)1.8134
238. Eastern Mich (10-18)1.6111
272. Central Mich (8-18)1.4340
293. Marshall (6-22)1.2668


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 1.9890


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
21. Arizona (30-7)2.2293
24. Stanford (18-13)2.2125
30. Washington (28-6)2.1784
64. Oregon St (17-15)2.0366
70. Arizona St (18-14)2.0214
91. UCLA (18-11)1.9551
141. Washington St (12-16)1.8442
146. USC (12-17)1.8324
156. California (13-16)1.8107
177. Oregon (14-13)1.7695


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.9285


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
14. Vanderbilt (20-14)2.2837
18. Mississippi St (23-11)2.2408
19. South Carolina (20-13)2.2370
27. LSU (20-10)2.2022
49. Florida (24-8)2.0973
69. Kentucky (28-6)2.0305
89. Alabama (23-8)1.9593
123. Auburn (14-17)1.8823
189. Tennessee (14-17)1.7529
196. Mississippi (14-17)1.7378
233. Arkansas (18-12)1.6331
310. Georgia (8-20)1.0850


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.9245


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
22. St Marys CA (23-9)2.2149
41. San Francisco (17-14)2.1330
50. Pepperdine (16-14)2.0885
107. Portland (14-15)1.9201
145. Santa Clara (14-16)1.8345
176. San Diego (14-13)1.7741
201. Gonzaga (26-5)1.7314
220. Loyola Marymnt (11-17)1.6992


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.8990


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
46. Fair Dickinson (19-13)2.1008
48. Wagner (13-17)2.0997
74. Monmouth NJ (16-13)1.9968
80. Liu Brooklyn (13-15)1.9902
90. St Francis NY (13-15)1.9579
95. Robert Morris (13-15)1.9427
130. Central Conn (12-16)1.8719
171. St Francis PA (14-13)1.7886
285. Mt St Marys (7-20)1.3425


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.8866


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
28. Boise St (15-18)2.1907
55. Texas El Paso (25-8)2.0774
63. Rice (17-12)2.0395
72. Hawaii (16-13)2.0185
77. Fresno St (15-14)1.9932
78. Louisiana Tech (14-15)1.9909
118. Nevada (24-7)1.9005
192. SMU (13-14)1.7483
210. Tulsa (9-20)1.7182
302. San Jose St (6-23)1.1885


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 1.8858


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Texas Tech (22-11)2.3357
33. Oklahoma St (25-7)2.1738
36. Missouri (16-17)2.1640
40. Oklahoma (25-8)2.1405
56. Kansas (23-7)2.0751
87. Iowa St (19-12)1.9659
104. Texas (19-11)1.9260
139. Texas AM (19-10)1.8487
158. Colorado (13-16)1.8080
217. Nebraska (14-14)1.7079
221. Kansas St (15-12)1.6939
321. Baylor (8-19)0.7901


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.8555


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
26. North Carolina St (21-14)2.2036
58. Maryland (19-13)2.0670
81. Duke (27-6)1.9890
99. Georgia Tech (20-12)1.9337
108. Wake Forest (27-6)1.9191
122. Clemson (16-16)1.8833
195. Virginia (14-15)1.7385
208. Virginia Tech (16-14)1.7229
216. North Carolina (33-4)1.7098
218. Miami Fla (16-13)1.7013
256. Florida St (11-19)1.5425


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 1.8530


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Memphis (22-16)2.6006
17. Uab (22-11)2.2609
29. TCU (20-14)2.1887
42. DePaul (20-11)2.1239
57. Marquette (18-12)2.0698
66. Houston (18-14)2.0361
96. Cincinnati (25-8)1.9410
120. Louisville (31-5)1.8938
136. Charlotte (21-8)1.8598
227. St Louis (9-21)1.6734
244. South Florida (13-16)1.5871
283. East Carolina (7-19)1.3525
299. SO Mississippi (8-17)1.2120
305. Tulane (9-18)1.1428


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 1.8402


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
15. West Virginia (24-11)2.2810
25. Villanova (24-8)2.2081
60. Connecticut (23-8)2.0611
76. Georgetown (19-13)1.9952
86. Syracuse (27-7)1.9683
109. Boston College (25-5)1.9173
128. Providence (13-17)1.8749
159. Notre Dame (17-12)1.8066
206. Pittsburgh (20-9)1.7254
251. Seton Hall (12-16)1.5574
282. Rutgers (9-19)1.3731
287. St Johns (9-18)1.3142


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.8304


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
35. Rider (18-11)2.1649
51. Iona (15-16)2.0828
53. Fairfield (15-15)2.0806
79. St Peters (15-13)1.9907
85. Niagara (20-10)1.9742
152. Marist (11-17)1.8173
162. Manhattan (13-14)1.8004
169. Canisius (11-18)1.7891
286. Siena (6-24)1.3314
292. Loyola MD (6-22)1.2728


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 1.7719


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
13. Western KY (21-9)2.2847
34. Denver (18-11)2.1710
84. Ul Lafayette (19-11)1.9783
101. Middle Tenn St (17-12)1.9292
153. Florida Intl (12-17)1.8163
197. New Orleans (12-17)1.7375
205. Arkansas St (13-13)1.7260
212. North Texas (12-14)1.7144
232. Arkansas Lr (15-10)1.6366
268. South Alabama (7-18)1.4452
314. New Mexico St (4-24)1.0518


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 1.7683


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
143. Harvard (12-15)1.8377
144. Brown (12-16)1.8373
147. Princeton (14-13)1.8303
148. Yale (11-16)1.8280
167. Pennsylvania (20-9)1.7962
203. Cornell (12-14)1.7295
219. Columbia (12-15)1.6998
243. Dartmouth (9-17)1.5872


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 1.7628


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
16. Central Florida (21-9)2.2733
45. Gardner-Webb (16-12)2.1061
47. Belmont (14-16)2.1000
137. Troy St (11-18)1.8567
168. Jacksonville (14-13)1.7948
170. Georgia St (13-15)1.7888
179. Fla Atlantic (10-17)1.7675
199. Mercer (14-12)1.7373
204. Lipscomb (14-12)1.7282
255. Stetson (9-17)1.5427
324. Campbell (2-25)0.6958


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.7106


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
43. Alabama A&M (16-14)2.1234
44. Alabama St (15-15)2.1085
61. Jackson St (14-17)2.0438
105. Southern (12-15)1.9239
138. Miss Valley St (13-15)1.8545
184. Grambling (12-12)1.7599
222. Texas Southern (10-15)1.6924
295. Alcorn St (6-22)1.2570
303. Ark Pine Bluff (5-21)1.1813
304. Prairie View (5-23)1.1614


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 1.7046


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
92. Northeastern (21-10)1.9464
113. Binghamton (12-17)1.9074
126. Boston U (20-9)1.8800
133. Maine (13-15)1.8644
150. Stony Brook (12-17)1.8217
181. Albany NY (13-15)1.7668
250. Vermont (25-7)1.5585
260. Umbc (10-18)1.5246
278. New Hampshire (8-19)1.4022
281. Hartford (8-20)1.3742


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 1.7037


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
31. Unlv (16-14)2.1749
164. Utah (27-6)1.7988
165. Wyoming (15-13)1.7967
182. Air Force (17-12)1.7660
228. New Mexico (25-7)1.6710
248. San Diego St (9-18)1.5785
271. BYU (7-21)1.4369
276. Colorado St (9-17)1.4070


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 1.6989


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. St Josephs (24-12)2.5946
93. Dayton (18-11)1.9449
100. Temple (16-14)1.9327
111. Xavier (17-12)1.9140
131. Massachusetts (16-12)1.8699
161. Geo Washington (22-8)1.8041
172. Richmond (14-15)1.7863
211. Fordham (13-16)1.7147
234. La Salle (10-19)1.6331
291. Rhode Island (6-22)1.2861
294. Duquesne (8-22)1.2606
326. St Bonaventure (2-26)0.6456


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 1.6984


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
37. Wisconsin (25-9)2.1619
75. Iowa (21-12)1.9959
102. Minnesota (21-11)1.9267
106. Indiana (15-14)1.9229
160. Michigan St (26-7)1.8051
194. Northwestern (15-16)1.7385
200. Ohio St (20-12)1.7338
230. Michigan (13-18)1.6599
269. Illinois (37-2)1.4450
298. Purdue (7-21)1.2265
312. Penn St (6-23)1.0667


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 1.6958


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
68. Montana (16-13)2.0310
83. Weber St (13-16)1.9791
173. Montana St (12-14)1.7842
207. Sacramento St (10-16)1.7236
224. Portland St (17-9)1.6840
253. Northrn Arizona (9-17)1.5537
275. Eastern Wash (7-20)1.4160
280. Idaho St (7-18)1.3950


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 1.6655


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
59. Oral Roberts (24-8)2.0632
112. Oakland (12-19)1.9086
116. Valparaiso (15-16)1.9031
127. Iupui (14-13)1.8786
163. Mo Kansas City (14-12)1.7998
239. Chicago St (9-19)1.6107
241. Southern Utah (11-15)1.5900
246. Western Ill (9-17)1.5812
325. Centenary (2-24)0.6542


HORIZON AVERAGE = 1.6622


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
65. Detroit (13-16)2.0363
67. Wright St (15-15)2.0339
135. Loyola Chi (12-17)1.8600
140. Wisc Green Bay (16-11)1.8484
186. Illinois Chi (13-13)1.7556
190. Butler (11-15)1.7515
259. Wisc Milwaukee (24-6)1.5254
289. Cleveland St (7-17)1.2971
320. Youngstown St (3-23)0.8521


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 1.6547


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
54. CS Fullerton (20-11)2.0788
94. CS Northridge (17-13)1.9431
149. UC Irvine (15-13)1.8227
180. UC Santa Barbara (11-18)1.7670
191. Utah St (24-8)1.7490
213. Long Beach St (10-20)1.7135
237. Pacific (27-4)1.6155
266. UC Riverside (8-19)1.4700
267. Idaho (7-21)1.4507
319. Cal Poly (4-22)0.9368


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 1.6526


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
38. VA Commonwealth (19-13)2.1609
114. Old Dominion (27-6)1.9068
125. NC Wilmington (19-10)1.8808
132. Hofstra (21-9)1.8668
154. George Mason (16-13)1.8155
188. Drexel (17-12)1.7540
235. Delaware (11-20)1.6322
284. William & Mary (8-21)1.3465
306. Towson (5-24)1.1318
316. James Madison (6-22)1.0308


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 1.6501


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
88. Birmingham Southern (15-14)1.9618
115. High Point (11-17)1.9040
134. Charleston Sou (12-16)1.8620
183. Liberty (12-15)1.7636
245. Radford (10-16)1.5865
252. NC Asheville (9-17)1.5552
262. Winthrop (24-6)1.4952
263. Coast Carolina (8-18)1.4855
297. VMI (7-18)1.2371


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 1.6389


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
71. Coll Of Charltn (18-10)2.0210
73. Davidson (20-9)2.0045
110. Chattanooga (17-11)1.9155
142. NC Greensboro (15-12)1.8398
157. Geo Southern (14-13)1.8090
209. Appalachian St (15-12)1.7203
236. Wofford (10-14)1.6248
240. Furman (12-13)1.5939
265. Elon (7-22)1.4717
273. East Tenn St (7-19)1.4257
307. Westrn Carolina (5-22)1.1208
308. The Citadel (8-16)1.1198


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 1.6195


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
32. Austin Peay (13-19)2.1747
97. Tennessee Tech (15-11)1.9379
166. Samford (13-13)1.7964
174. Murray St (15-11)1.7833
187. Eastern Ill (11-16)1.7540
193. SE Missouri St (11-14)1.7456
198. Eastern KY (19-9)1.7374
249. Tennessee St (12-16)1.5739
296. Morehead St (8-16)1.2479
313. Jacksonville St (4-22)1.0530
317. Tenn Martin (4-21)1.0102


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 1.5295


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
119. Northwestern St (17-12)1.8996
129. Lamar (14-11)1.8724
151. SE Louisiana (19-9)1.8198
178. Sam Houston (14-12)1.7676
202. Tex San Antonio (12-13)1.7307
242. Stephen Austin (9-15)1.5899
254. SW Texas St (10-14)1.5521
274. Texas Arlington (9-15)1.4225
279. McNeese St (9-15)1.3967
315. Ul Monroe (5-19)1.0409
322. Nicholls St (3-21)0.7319


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 1.4952


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
82. SO Carolina St (19-12)1.9846
117. Delaware St (19-14)1.9007
124. Hampton (17-13)1.8821
214. Morgan St (14-16)1.7128
226. Bethune Cookman (13-17)1.6739
247. Coppin St (14-15)1.5809
257. Florida A&M (14-15)1.5401
264. Norfolk St (13-14)1.4848
301. NO Carolina A&T (6-24)1.1925
318. Howard (5-23)0.9382
327. MD Eastrn Shore (2-26)0.5565


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 1.4345


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
185. Lehigh (13-15)1.7597
225. American (16-12)1.6767
229. Holy Cross (25-7)1.6607
231. Bucknell (23-10)1.6510
261. Colgate (10-16)1.5200
277. Navy (8-18)1.4039
288. Lafayette (8-19)1.3068
328. Army (1-24)0.4974


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 1.0206


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
223. Utah Valley St (14-12)1.6847
258. UC Davis (10-17)1.5335
290. TX Pan American (8-16)1.2931
300. Texas A&M-CC (16-8)1.1976
309. IPFW (6-22)1.0966
323. Northern Colorado (4-21)0.7025
329. Longwood (1-29)0.4873
330. Savannah St (0-28)0.1692
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