NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Strength of Schedule

By ranking
Last Updated Thu Aug 18 11:17:46 EDT 2005

Home Court Advantage = 3.8097

BIG TEN AVERAGE = 0.2208


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Purdue (7-21)0.4079
2. Penn St (6-23)0.3970
24. Indiana (15-14)0.2517
26. Michigan (13-18)0.2459
29. Northwestern (15-16)0.2416
44. Iowa (21-12)0.2006
49. Wisconsin (25-9)0.1898
65. Minnesota (21-11)0.1622
69. Ohio St (20-12)0.1580
108. Michigan St (26-7)0.1140
142. Illinois (37-2)0.0599


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.2195


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Virginia (14-15)0.3598
7. Florida St (11-19)0.3202
17. Clemson (16-16)0.2630
31. Virginia Tech (16-14)0.2382
32. Georgia Tech (20-12)0.2374
34. Miami Fla (16-13)0.2297
36. North Carolina St (21-14)0.2160
54. Maryland (19-13)0.1855
82. Wake Forest (27-6)0.1393
87. Duke (27-6)0.1314
124. North Carolina (33-4)0.0940


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 0.2037


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
14. California (13-16)0.2679
15. Washington St (12-16)0.2671
18. USC (12-17)0.2620
28. Oregon (14-13)0.2454
40. Stanford (18-13)0.2077
46. UCLA (18-11)0.1988
57. Oregon St (17-15)0.1810
60. Arizona St (18-14)0.1716
101. Washington (28-6)0.1192
107. Arizona (30-7)0.1162


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 0.2006


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Rutgers (9-19)0.3894
10. St Johns (9-18)0.3100
19. Providence (13-17)0.2610
22. Seton Hall (12-16)0.2570
37. West Virginia (24-11)0.2134
50. Georgetown (19-13)0.1898
52. Notre Dame (17-12)0.1891
78. Pittsburgh (20-9)0.1459
89. Connecticut (23-8)0.1259
110. Villanova (24-8)0.1137
113. Boston College (25-5)0.1066
115. Syracuse (27-7)0.1058


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 0.1842


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. Colorado (13-16)0.2939
13. Missouri (16-17)0.2714
41. Baylor (8-19)0.2044
43. Kansas St (15-12)0.2019
45. Texas Tech (22-11)0.1993
51. Nebraska (14-14)0.1895
55. Iowa St (19-12)0.1833
70. Texas (19-11)0.1574
79. Kansas (23-7)0.1453
93. Texas AM (19-10)0.1238
97. Oklahoma (25-8)0.1219
102. Oklahoma St (25-7)0.1189


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.1822


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Georgia (8-20)0.3167
21. Tennessee (14-17)0.2570
23. Auburn (14-17)0.2547
33. Mississippi (14-17)0.2317
61. South Carolina (20-13)0.1696
67. Vanderbilt (20-14)0.1602
68. LSU (20-10)0.1584
77. Mississippi St (23-11)0.1465
88. Kentucky (28-6)0.1282
96. Alabama (23-8)0.1232
98. Arkansas (18-12)0.1217
103. Florida (24-8)0.1182


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 0.1668


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. BYU (7-21)0.3208
12. San Diego St (9-18)0.2896
39. Colorado St (9-17)0.2078
48. Unlv (16-14)0.1940
64. Wyoming (15-13)0.1637
129. Air Force (17-12)0.0881
146. Utah (27-6)0.0573
172. New Mexico (25-7)0.0131


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 0.1504


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. East Carolina (7-19)0.3140
27. St Louis (9-21)0.2457
47. SO Mississippi (8-17)0.1947
72. TCU (20-14)0.1557
73. Houston (18-14)0.1532
74. South Florida (13-16)0.1530
75. Tulane (9-18)0.1524
92. Marquette (18-12)0.1246
95. Uab (22-11)0.1237
109. Memphis (22-16)0.1140
117. Charlotte (21-8)0.1022
118. DePaul (20-11)0.1010
126. Cincinnati (25-8)0.0899
133. Louisville (31-5)0.0817


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 0.1474


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
25. Indiana St (11-20)0.2474
38. Bradley (13-15)0.2091
58. Drake (13-16)0.1774
59. Evansville (11-17)0.1753
66. Illinois St (16-13)0.1606
104. SW Missouri St (19-13)0.1175
106. Northern Iowa (20-11)0.1164
123. Creighton (23-11)0.0944
125. Wichita St (22-10)0.0921
130. Southern Ill (26-8)0.0838


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.1322


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Marshall (6-22)0.3286
16. Central Mich (8-18)0.2631
63. Northern Ill (11-17)0.1649
76. Eastern Mich (10-18)0.1511
94. Kent (18-13)0.1237
99. Ball St (14-13)0.1211
114. Miami Ohio (18-11)0.1062
120. Bowling Green (17-11)0.0995
121. Toledo (15-13)0.0972
135. Western Mich (19-13)0.0760
137. Ohio (21-11)0.0720
141. Buffalo (23-10)0.0610
149. Akron (18-10)0.0548


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.1135


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
53. Loyola Marymnt (11-17)0.1856
80. San Francisco (17-14)0.1402
90. San Diego (14-13)0.1254
91. Santa Clara (14-16)0.1249
112. Portland (14-15)0.1073
119. Pepperdine (16-14)0.0999
131. St Marys CA (23-9)0.0823
157. Gonzaga (26-5)0.0422


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 0.0901


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
30. St Bonaventure (2-26)0.2397
81. Richmond (14-15)0.1398
83. La Salle (10-19)0.1368
84. Duquesne (8-22)0.1368
85. Rhode Island (6-22)0.1345
86. Temple (16-14)0.1326
136. St Josephs (24-12)0.0741
162. Massachusetts (16-12)0.0331
165. Xavier (17-12)0.0292
170. Fordham (13-16)0.0167
171. Geo Washington (22-8)0.0146
185. Dayton (18-11)-0.006


HORIZON AVERAGE = 0.0797


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
42. Youngstown St (3-23)0.2036
71. Cleveland St (7-17)0.1563
116. Loyola Chi (12-17)0.1054
143. Detroit (13-16)0.0583
144. Illinois Chi (13-13)0.0583
153. Wright St (15-15)0.0480
159. Wisc Milwaukee (24-6)0.0389
164. Wisc Green Bay (16-11)0.0303
167. Butler (11-15)0.0184


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 0.0545


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
20. San Jose St (6-23)0.2599
139. Rice (17-12)0.0663
147. SMU (13-14)0.0558
151. Tulsa (9-20)0.0507
155. Boise St (15-18)0.0437
156. Louisiana Tech (14-15)0.0435
161. Fresno St (15-14)0.0375
166. Hawaii (16-13)0.0239
175. Nevada (24-7)0.0097
217. Texas El Paso (25-8)-0.046


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 0.0519


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
35. New Mexico St (4-24)0.2261
105. Florida Intl (12-17)0.1173
111. South Alabama (7-18)0.1087
134. New Orleans (12-17)0.0803
140. Arkansas Lr (15-10)0.0624
152. Ul Lafayette (19-11)0.0489
163. Arkansas St (13-13)0.0329
178. North Texas (12-14)0.0066
191. Denver (18-11)-0.016
214. Middle Tenn St (17-12)-0.044
222. Western KY (21-9)-0.050


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 0.0297


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
56. Cal Poly (4-22)0.1824
127. Idaho (7-21)0.0890
138. Long Beach St (10-20)0.0665
145. UC Santa Barbara (11-18)0.0576
160. UC Riverside (8-19)0.0377
168. Pacific (27-4)0.0181
169. CS Fullerton (20-11)0.0178
179. CS Northridge (17-13)3.9671
208. UC Irvine (15-13)-0.042
273. Utah St (24-8)-0.129


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 0.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
62. Centenary (2-24)0.1676
128. Oakland (12-19)0.0882
148. Chicago St (9-19)0.0553
181. Western Ill (9-17)-0.003
189. Valparaiso (15-16)-0.014
195. Southern Utah (11-15)-0.024
207. Iupui (14-13)-0.039
244. Mo Kansas City (14-12)-0.093
281. Oral Roberts (24-8)-0.137


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = -0.036


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
100. Tenn Martin (4-21)0.1196
154. Tennessee St (12-16)0.0475
173. Jacksonville St (4-22)0.0111
174. Austin Peay (13-19)0.0106
188. Eastern Ill (11-16)-0.010
211. SE Missouri St (11-14)-0.043
218. Morehead St (8-16)-0.046
246. Samford (13-13)-0.094
254. Murray St (15-11)-0.105
280. Eastern KY (19-9)-0.137
291. Tennessee Tech (15-11)-0.154


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = -0.046


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
122. Westrn Carolina (5-22)0.0968
132. Elon (7-22)0.0819
176. East Tenn St (7-19)0.0092
186. Davidson (20-9)-0.008
202. Wofford (10-14)-0.034
203. NC Greensboro (15-12)-0.035
210. Furman (12-13)-0.043
228. The Citadel (8-16)-0.064
243. Chattanooga (17-11)-0.091
274. Geo Southern (14-13)-0.129
290. Appalachian St (15-12)-0.152
301. Coll Of Charltn (18-10)-0.191


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = -0.064


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
158. Northern Colorado (4-21)0.0414
177. IPFW (6-22)0.0066
180. Savannah St (0-28)-0.003
197. Longwood (1-29)-0.028
205. UC Davis (10-17)-0.037
220. TX Pan American (8-16)-0.048
309. Texas A&M-CC (16-8)-0.217
312. Utah Valley St (14-12)-0.224


COLONIAL AVERAGE = -0.064


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
187. Towson (5-24)-0.009
192. Drexel (17-12)-0.017
196. Delaware (11-20)-0.026
204. James Madison (6-22)-0.035
209. William & Mary (8-21)-0.042
231. VA Commonwealth (19-13)-0.067
248. NC Wilmington (19-10)-0.094
250. George Mason (16-13)-0.096
252. Hofstra (21-9)-0.102
293. Old Dominion (27-6)-0.156


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = -0.065


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
194. New Hampshire (8-19)-0.023
198. Hartford (8-20)-0.029
213. Binghamton (12-17)-0.043
216. Maine (13-15)-0.045
219. Vermont (25-7)-0.048
224. Stony Brook (12-17)-0.058
230. Umbc (10-18)-0.066
242. Northeastern (21-10)-0.091
268. Albany NY (13-15)-0.117
278. Boston U (20-9)-0.133


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = -0.069


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
190. Dartmouth (9-17)-0.015
200. Princeton (14-13)-0.031
223. Yale (11-16)-0.055
234. Harvard (12-15)-0.071
235. Cornell (12-14)-0.076
236. Brown (12-16)-0.077
251. Pennsylvania (20-9)-0.099
275. Columbia (12-15)-0.130


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.083


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
150. Siena (6-24)0.0540
199. Loyola MD (6-22)-0.030
233. Canisius (11-18)-0.071
240. Fairfield (15-15)-0.085
241. Manhattan (13-14)-0.090
249. Marist (11-17)-0.094
255. Iona (15-16)-0.106
261. St Peters (15-13)-0.112
283. Niagara (20-10)-0.141
288. Rider (18-11)-0.151


PATRIOT AVERAGE = -0.083


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
182. Army (1-24)-0.003
184. Lafayette (8-19)-0.004
215. Bucknell (23-10)-0.044
226. Colgate (10-16)-0.063
247. American (16-12)-0.094
257. Navy (8-18)-0.109
292. Lehigh (13-15)-0.155
304. Holy Cross (25-7)-0.194


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = -0.103


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
201. Nicholls St (3-21)-0.033
212. Ul Monroe (5-19)-0.043
221. McNeese St (9-15)-0.049
229. Texas Arlington (9-15)-0.065
253. SW Texas St (10-14)-0.104
258. Tex San Antonio (12-13)-0.110
262. Northwestern St (17-12)-0.114
277. Lamar (14-11)-0.132
282. Sam Houston (14-12)-0.139
284. Stephen Austin (9-15)-0.146
303. SE Louisiana (19-9)-0.193


BIG SKY AVERAGE = -0.114


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
183. Eastern Wash (7-20)-0.003
225. Idaho St (7-18)-0.060
239. Sacramento St (10-16)-0.082
260. Weber St (13-16)-0.110
267. Northrn Arizona (9-17)-0.117
270. Montana (16-13)-0.122
289. Montana St (12-14)-0.152
321. Portland St (17-9)-0.266


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = -0.140


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
232. Coast Carolina (8-18)-0.070
237. NC Asheville (9-17)-0.080
245. Charleston Sou (12-16)-0.093
263. VMI (7-18)-0.114
264. Liberty (12-15)-0.114
276. Radford (10-16)-0.130
298. Birmingham Southern (15-14)-0.183
299. High Point (11-17)-0.185
325. Winthrop (24-6)-0.294


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = -0.160


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
193. Campbell (2-25)-0.020
238. Stetson (9-17)-0.081
256. Troy St (11-18)-0.106
259. Georgia St (13-15)-0.110
286. Fla Atlantic (10-17)-0.147
295. Jacksonville (14-13)-0.177
300. Belmont (14-16)-0.186
306. Gardner-Webb (16-12)-0.208
311. Lipscomb (14-12)-0.221
314. Mercer (14-12)-0.240
318. Central Florida (21-9)-0.259


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.182


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
266. Mt St Marys (7-20)-0.116
279. Wagner (13-17)-0.134
294. Liu Brooklyn (13-15)-0.160
296. Robert Morris (13-15)-0.177
297. St Francis PA (14-13)-0.183
302. Central Conn (12-16)-0.192
307. St Francis NY (13-15)-0.210
310. Monmouth NJ (16-13)-0.221
315. Fair Dickinson (19-13)-0.242


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.217


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
206. MD Eastrn Shore (2-26)-0.038
269. Howard (5-23)-0.120
272. NO Carolina A&T (6-24)-0.129
305. Coppin St (14-15)-0.196
308. Delaware St (19-14)-0.215
313. Bethune Cookman (13-17)-0.228
316. Florida A&M (14-15)-0.245
317. Morgan St (14-16)-0.256
323. Norfolk St (13-14)-0.280
328. Hampton (17-13)-0.311
330. SO Carolina St (19-12)-0.364


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = -0.244


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
265. Prairie View (5-23)-0.116
271. Alcorn St (6-22)-0.128
287. Ark Pine Bluff (5-21)-0.149
319. Texas Southern (10-15)-0.264
320. Jackson St (14-17)-0.265
322. Southern (12-15)-0.279
324. Alabama St (15-15)-0.284
326. Miss Valley St (13-15)-0.307
327. Grambling (12-12)-0.310
329. Alabama A&M (16-14)-0.339
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