NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

MIAMI OHIO
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 18-11
Power Rating: 81.519
Ranking: 70

0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
7-7 v #51-100
7-2 v #101-200
4-1 v #201-330

Home Ratings (12-1): 85.574 (37)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
6-1 v #51-100
3-0 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-330
League Power Rankings: 9-0 83.527
Non-League Power Ratings: 3-1 80.597
Last Ten Ratings: 3-1 81.879

Away Ratings (5-8): 79.484 (103)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-5 v #51-100
3-2 v #101-200
1-1 v #201-330
League Power Rankings: 3-6 80.305
Non-League Power Ratings: 2-2 81.019
Last Ten Ratings: 0-4 76.879

Neutral Ratings (1-2): 79.457 (108)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
1-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-330
League Power Rankings: 1-1 82.113
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 64.019
Last Ten Ratings: 1-1 82.113

League Power Rankings (13-7): 82.113 (72)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
5-5 v #51-100
5-1 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 9-0 83.527
Away Ratings: 3-6 80.305
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 82.113
Last Ten Ratings: 3-5 80.254

Non-League Power Ratings (5-4): 79.918 (97)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
2-2 v #51-100
2-1 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 3-1 80.597
Away Ratings: 2-2 81.019
Neutral Ratings: 0-1 64.019
Last Ten Ratings: 1-1 79.816

Wins Power Rankings: 82.392 (75)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
6-7 v #51-100
9-2 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 12-1 87.728
Away Ratings: 5-8 79.943
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 80.096
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 77.486

Rankings: Points: 80.416 (74)
0-1 v #1-25
1-0 v #26-50
7-7 v #51-100
7-2 v #101-200
3-1 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 12-1 82.705
Away Ratings: 5-8 79.221
Neutral Ratings: 1-2 78.838
League Power Rankings: 13-7 80.676
Non-League Power Ratings: 5-4 79.705
Last Ten Ratings: 4-6 79.072

Last Ten Ratings (4-6): 78.066 (117)
0-0 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
0-2 v #51-100
4-2 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 3-1 81.879
Away Ratings: 0-4 76.879
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 82.113
League Power Rankings: 3-5 80.254
Non-League Power Ratings: 1-1 79.816

Home Advantage: 9.9047 (29)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.0527 (139)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.1744 (114)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.3146 (107)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.4538 (92)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.6368 (77)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.8846 (39)

Upward Stability: 2.0740 (24)

Downward Stability: 2.3326 (11)

RPI
RPI: 0.5673 (45)
0-1 v #1-25
3-3 v #26-50
5-5 v #51-100
5-0 v #101-200
5-2 v #201-330

RPI Home (12-1): 0.6029 (22)
0-0 v #1-25
3-0 v #26-50
3-1 v #51-100
2-0 v #101-200
4-0 v #201-330

RPI Away (5-8): 0.5502 (89)
0-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-3 v #51-100
3-3 v #101-200
2-2 v #201-330

RPI Neutral (1-2): 0.5510 (92)
0-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-0 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-330

RPI League (13-7): 0.5857 (36)
0-0 v #1-25
1-2 v #26-50
7-3 v #51-100
1-1 v #101-200
4-1 v #201-330

RPI Non-League (5-4): 0.5320 (111)
0-0 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
2-1 v #101-200
2-1 v #201-330

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5399 (59)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/19/2004	Home	W 81-71	vs. #152 Purdue
11/22/2004	Away	W 66-54	vs. #96 Xavier
11/27/2004	Away	L 48-61	vs. #181 Butler
12/4/2004	Home	W 83-75	vs. #118 Ball St
12/8/2004	Away	W 59-54	vs. #161 Wright St
12/19/2004	Away	L 63-69	vs. #69 SW Missouri St
12/21/2004	Home	W 88-44	vs. #243 Liberty
12/27/2004	Neut	L 53-77	vs. #22 Cincinnati
1/5/2005	Home	W 64-59	vs. #149 Northern Ill
1/8/2005	Away	L 49-68	vs. #85 Kent
1/12/2005	Home	W 71-61	vs. #209 Central Mich
1/15/2005	Away	L 56-67	vs. #64 Buffalo
1/19/2005	Away	W 83-73	vs. #207 Eastern Mich
1/22/2005	Home	W 59-57	vs. #74 Ohio
1/26/2005	Home	W 85-60	vs. #88 Western Mich
1/30/2005	Home	W 74-63	vs. #81 Akron
2/3/2005	Away	W 76-64	vs. #103 Toledo
2/5/2005	Home	W 77-74	vs. #64 Buffalo
2/9/2005	Away	W 54-52	vs. #118 Ball St
2/12/2005	Away	L 57-61	vs. #74 Ohio
2/15/2005	Home	W 59-51	vs. #212 Marshall
2/19/2005	Home	W 65-58	vs. #55 Wichita St
2/23/2005	Away	L 49-55	vs. #81 Akron
2/27/2005	Away	L 56-57	vs. #115 Bowling Green
3/2/2005	Home	W 70-45	vs. #85 Kent
3/5/2005	Away	L 47-54	vs. #212 Marshall
3/10/2005	Neut	W 85-65	vs. #115 Bowling Green
3/11/2005	Neut	L 56-63	vs. #74 Ohio
3/16/2005	Home	L 58-60	vs. #79 TCU

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)