NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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Printable NCAA Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

MISSOURI
Predictions for Future Games
Scores & Results
RPI Breakdown

Record: 16-17
Power Rating: 80.690
Ranking: 86

3-4 v #1-25
1-5 v #26-50
6-8 v #51-100
4-0 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-330

Home Ratings (14-5): 82.330 (67)
3-0 v #1-25
1-1 v #26-50
4-4 v #51-100
4-0 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-330
League Power Rankings: 6-2 81.666
Non-League Power Ratings: 8-3 78.908
Last Ten Ratings: 4-1 83.080

Away Ratings (1-8): 77.268 (133)
0-2 v #1-25
0-3 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-330
League Power Rankings: 1-7 79.197
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 81.315
Last Ten Ratings: 1-2 81.221

Neutral Ratings (1-4): 79.877 (104)
0-2 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
1-1 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-330
League Power Rankings: 1-1 84.283
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-3 78.252
Last Ten Ratings: 1-1 84.283

League Power Rankings (8-10): 82.090 (73)
2-3 v #1-25
1-4 v #26-50
4-3 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 6-2 81.666
Away Ratings: 1-7 79.197
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 84.283
Last Ten Ratings: 6-3 84.135

Non-League Power Ratings (8-7): 78.619 (117)
1-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
2-5 v #51-100
4-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 8-3 78.908
Away Ratings: 0-1 81.315
Neutral Ratings: 0-3 78.252
Last Ten Ratings: 0-1 73.815

Wins Power Rankings: 81.924 (82)
3-4 v #1-25
1-5 v #26-50
6-8 v #51-100
4-0 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 14-5 84.170
Away Ratings: 1-8 77.830
Neutral Ratings: 1-4 80.018
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 86.654

Rankings: Points: 79.125 (90)
3-4 v #1-25
1-5 v #26-50
5-7 v #51-100
5-1 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 14-5 79.731
Away Ratings: 1-8 77.078
Neutral Ratings: 1-4 79.891
League Power Rankings: 8-10 79.602
Non-League Power Ratings: 8-7 78.445
Last Ten Ratings: 6-4 81.336

Last Ten Ratings (6-4): 84.361 (49)
1-1 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
4-2 v #51-100
0-0 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-330
Home Ratings: 4-1 83.080
Away Ratings: 1-2 81.221
Neutral Ratings: 1-1 84.283
League Power Rankings: 6-3 84.135
Non-League Power Ratings: 0-1 73.815

Home Advantage: 7.9403 (60)

Difficulty of Schedule for a Top Five Team: 0.1073 (40)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #15 team: 0.2706 (41)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #45 team: 0.4247 (34)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #100 team: 0.5546 (31)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #150 team: 0.7051 (22)

Difficulty of Schedule for the #270 team: 0.9072 (17)

Upward Stability: 2.2902 (4)

Downward Stability: 2.1640 (36)

RPI
RPI: 0.5344 (94)
3-4 v #1-25
0-2 v #26-50
3-6 v #51-100
8-5 v #101-200
2-0 v #201-330

RPI Home (14-5): 0.5573 (58)
3-0 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
3-2 v #51-100
5-3 v #101-200
3-0 v #201-330

RPI Away (1-8): 0.4876 (202)
0-2 v #1-25
0-1 v #26-50
1-4 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-330

RPI Neutral (1-4): 0.5297 (114)
0-2 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
0-1 v #51-100
0-1 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-330

RPI League (8-10): 0.5371 (97)
2-4 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
1-3 v #51-100
4-3 v #101-200
1-0 v #201-330

RPI Non-League (8-7): 0.5316 (113)
1-1 v #1-25
0-0 v #26-50
3-3 v #51-100
4-3 v #101-200
0-0 v #201-330

RPI Strength of Schedule: 0.5772 (7)

GAMES

Date	Site	Score	Opponent
11/15/2004	Home	W 68-60	vs. #239 Brown
11/16/2004	Home	W 77-61	vs. #94 Houston
11/19/2004	Home	L 81-84	vs. #77 Davidson
11/23/2004	Neut	L 54-78	vs. #48 Creighton
11/24/2004	Neut	L 55-57	vs. #94 Houston
11/28/2004	Home	W 59-55	vs. #148 Murray St
12/4/2004	Home	W 70-61	vs. #184 Oakland
12/7/2004	Home	L 52-62	vs. #71 Arkansas
12/11/2004	Home	W 87-62	vs. #177 Montana
12/19/2004	Home	W 56-53	vs. #62 Indiana
12/22/2004	Neut	L 64-70	vs. #1 Illinois
12/30/2004	Home	W 63-61	vs. #14 Gonzaga
1/4/2005	Home	W 64-51	vs. #173 American
1/8/2005	Home	W 62-59	vs. #38 Iowa St
1/11/2005	Away	L 68-78	vs. #10 Oklahoma St
1/15/2005	Away	L 54-74	vs. #67 Kansas St
1/19/2005	Home	L 62-78	vs. #26 Texas Tech
1/22/2005	Home	W 80-70	vs. #89 Nebraska
1/26/2005	Away	L 62-64	vs. #98 Colorado
1/29/2005	Home	L 53-64	vs. #67 Kansas St
1/31/2005	Away	L 61-73	vs. #12 Kansas
2/5/2005	Away	L 63-91	vs. #46 Texas AM
2/9/2005	Away	L 71-74	vs. #90 Unlv
2/12/2005	Home	W 68-65	vs. #20 Oklahoma
2/16/2005	Home	W 60-53	vs. #241 Baylor
2/19/2005	Away	W 56-53	vs. #89 Nebraska
2/22/2005	Home	W 63-54	vs. #98 Colorado
2/26/2005	Away	L 51-63	vs. #39 Texas
3/2/2005	Away	L 49-67	vs. #38 Iowa St
3/6/2005	Home	W 72-68	vs. #12 Kansas
3/10/2005	Neut	W 70-67	vs. #89 Nebraska
3/11/2005	Neut	L 79-83	vs. #20 Oklahoma
3/15/2005	Home	L 70-75	vs. #60 DePaul

FUTURE GAMES

Date

Site

Win Probability

Margin

Opponent

Opp. Rating

(Opp. Specific Rating)