NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Wins Power Rankings

By ranking
Last Updated Mon Feb 26 21:48:23 EST 2007

Home Court Advantage = 4.1

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 87.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Florida (33-6)97.48-34-310-0
6. LSU (26-9)95.06-54-36-1
13. Tennessee (22-8)92.23-33-48-1
24. Arkansas (22-10)90.03-53-24-2
27. Kentucky (22-13)89.53-85-34-2
28. South Carolina (22-15)88.93-66-35-5
42. Alabama (18-13)87.34-42-45-4
51. Vanderbilt (17-13)85.81-73-32-2
71. Georgia (15-15)83.00-73-33-3
84. Mississippi St (15-15)82.02-51-42-3
105. Auburn (12-16)80.50-70-54-3
114. Mississippi (14-16)79.31-62-31-3


BIG EAST AVERAGE = 87.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Connecticut (30-4)98.710-36-13-0
3. Villanova (28-5)97.66-56-07-0
14. Pittsburgh (25-8)92.24-46-27-1
18. Georgetown (23-10)91.34-73-15-1
20. West Virginia (21-11)90.85-75-23-1
25. Syracuse (23-12)89.94-83-24-2
33. Marquette (19-11)88.13-41-46-3
39. Cincinnati (20-13)87.53-82-28-2
49. Louisville (21-13)86.20-83-36-1
54. Seton Hall (18-12)85.53-32-24-5
56. Notre Dame (16-14)85.00-72-66-1
60. Rutgers (18-14)84.40-62-16-5
73. DePaul (12-15)83.01-42-55-5
95. Providence (12-15)81.50-70-45-3
107. St Johns (12-15)80.11-71-22-4
212. South Florida (7-22)70.91-50-40-8


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 86.4


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
11. Ohio St (26-6)92.72-35-39-0
12. Illinois (26-7)92.43-36-37-1
19. Iowa (25-9)91.03-28-34-4
29. Michigan St (21-12)88.84-75-32-1
31. Indiana (19-12)88.32-75-25-2
40. Michigan (22-11)87.51-52-411-1
48. Wisconsin (19-12)86.32-44-48-2
70. Minnesota (16-15)83.21-54-52-3
88. Northwestern (13-15)81.71-41-54-5
94. Penn St (15-15)81.51-61-63-3
143. Purdue (9-19)76.80-52-62-6


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 86.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Duke (32-4)98.07-33-111-0
16. North Carolina (23-8)91.61-55-08-3
17. Boston College (27-8)91.62-32-29-2
34. North Carolina St (22-10)88.02-63-07-3
47. Florida St (20-10)86.31-40-28-3
57. Maryland (18-13)84.92-70-25-4
59. Miami Fla (18-16)84.61-61-66-4
66. Clemson (18-13)83.50-32-36-5
76. Wake Forest (17-17)82.71-74-22-6
77. Virginia (15-15)82.52-40-44-5
112. Virginia Tech (14-16)79.70-61-23-7
118. Georgia Tech (11-17)78.61-31-33-9


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 83.4


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
7. UCLA (32-7)94.73-58-14-1
21. Washington (26-7)90.54-12-25-1
43. Arizona (20-13)87.02-72-26-2
50. California (20-11)85.92-41-27-2
74. Stanford (16-14)82.81-41-52-2
96. USC (16-13)81.42-31-42-1
108. Oregon (14-18)79.91-61-42-4
127. Oregon St (13-18)77.90-52-21-5
133. Washington St (11-17)77.42-30-42-4
147. Arizona St (11-17)76.30-51-31-4


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 83.4


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
9. Texas (30-7)93.66-44-24-1
22. Kansas (24-8)90.21-24-39-1
37. Texas AM (22-9)87.72-40-27-2
46. Oklahoma (20-9)86.61-43-03-4
64. Colorado (20-10)83.90-32-23-3
83. Nebraska (19-14)82.00-43-44-3
86. Oklahoma St (17-16)81.92-51-41-5
99. Iowa St (15-14)81.11-41-24-4
111. Texas Tech (15-17)79.70-60-43-4
113. Kansas St (15-13)79.71-21-13-4
130. Missouri (12-16)77.61-41-13-6
146. Baylor (4-13)76.30-30-41-5


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 82.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
26. Wichita St (25-9)89.61-35-55-1
32. Bradley (22-11)88.22-15-54-2
35. Missouri St (22-9)87.90-13-74-1
41. Northern Iowa (21-10)87.33-15-50-3
45. Southern Ill (22-10)86.80-16-44-1
52. Creighton (20-10)85.81-05-63-2
131. Indiana St (12-16)77.60-04-81-2
159. Drake (10-19)75.10-21-90-4
163. Evansville (10-19)74.80-01-100-3
187. Illinois St (8-19)72.80-00-111-2


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 78.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Geo Washington (27-3)92.90-11-17-1
61. St Josephs (19-14)84.41-60-14-4
72. Xavier (21-11)83.00-31-05-3
82. Temple (17-15)82.11-42-04-5
93. Charlotte (19-13)81.50-20-23-5
103. La Salle (18-10)80.70-20-12-3
106. St Louis (16-13)80.40-41-04-3
117. Fordham (16-16)78.80-10-02-9
124. Massachusetts (13-15)78.00-30-23-3
138. Rhode Island (14-14)77.10-20-03-5
145. Dayton (13-17)76.40-11-22-9
174. Richmond (13-17)74.10-20-13-7
256. St Bonaventure (8-19)67.50-20-00-4
314. Duquesne (3-24)59.70-40-00-5


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 78.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
15. George Mason (27-8)91.72-14-36-4
30. Hofstra (26-7)88.72-01-26-4
36. NC Wilmington (25-8)87.81-22-26-2
53. Old Dominion (24-10)85.71-12-56-2
90. Northeastern (18-11)81.60-21-42-2
98. VA Commonwealth (19-10)81.20-21-42-2
142. Drexel (15-16)77.00-30-42-4
194. Towson (12-16)71.90-21-21-4
227. Delaware (9-21)70.00-20-60-4
236. Georgia St (7-22)69.10-20-60-8
254. William & Mary (8-20)67.60-20-30-6
293. James Madison (5-23)63.90-30-20-7


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 77.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
65. Air Force (22-7)83.80-20-03-2
67. San Diego St (22-9)83.40-00-22-3
92. BYU (19-9)81.60-00-02-5
110. Unlv (17-13)79.70-00-12-8
123. New Mexico (17-13)78.00-10-01-5
153. Colorado St (14-15)75.70-00-01-8
156. Utah (13-15)75.40-00-14-5
171. Wyoming (13-18)74.40-00-23-7
270. TCU (6-24)66.10-10-00-8


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 77.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. Gonzaga (29-4)94.10-42-06-0
116. St Marys CA (16-12)79.10-21-11-4
134. San Diego (17-12)77.30-30-01-0
148. Loyola Marymnt (12-18)75.90-40-01-5
165. Santa Clara (11-16)74.71-30-01-2
173. San Francisco (11-17)74.20-20-20-2
188. Portland (11-17)72.70-20-00-2
216. Pepperdine (7-20)70.40-40-10-1


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 77.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
38. Nevada (26-6)87.71-10-07-2
68. Utah St (22-9)83.30-11-25-0
89. Louisiana Tech (19-13)81.60-11-40-5
109. Hawaii (17-11)79.80-02-12-4
115. New Mexico St (15-14)79.30-10-34-1
129. Fresno St (15-13)77.70-01-12-6
170. Boise St (13-15)74.50-00-21-6
261. San Jose St (6-25)66.80-00-30-6
303. Idaho (3-25)62.00-20-30-4


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 76.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
62. Iona (23-8)84.20-10-11-3
97. Manhattan (20-11)81.20-20-03-2
104. Marist (19-10)80.60-00-02-5
132. Siena (15-13)77.40-10-11-3
137. St Peters (17-15)77.20-20-02-5
157. Loyola MD (15-13)75.30-00-00-6
185. Niagara (11-18)73.10-10-01-5
196. Fairfield (9-19)71.90-20-00-6
222. Canisius (9-20)70.30-10-01-3
230. Rider (8-20)69.80-20-01-4


HORIZON AVERAGE = 75.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
63. Wisc Milwaukee (21-9)84.00-21-23-1
100. Butler (20-13)80.90-11-42-3
121. Loyola Chi (17-11)78.50-01-11-4
136. Illinois Chi (16-14)77.20-10-03-4
151. Detroit (14-16)75.80-00-31-4
166. Wright St (12-15)74.60-00-03-4
167. Wisc Green Bay (14-16)74.60-10-21-5
232. Cleveland St (8-18)69.60-10-10-6
267. Youngstown St (6-21)66.30-00-01-5


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 75.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
55. Kent (24-9)85.00-20-14-2
69. Akron (22-10)83.30-00-34-4
87. Miami Ohio (18-11)81.70-00-41-5
102. Ohio (18-11)80.80-00-22-6
119. Toledo (19-11)78.60-00-12-4
120. Northern Ill (16-11)78.50-00-11-5
126. Buffalo (18-13)77.90-10-02-7
172. Western Mich (13-17)74.30-00-11-6
224. Marshall (12-16)70.21-20-20-1
226. Ball St (8-18)70.20-00-10-5
239. Bowling Green (7-21)68.80-00-21-5
278. Eastern Mich (7-21)65.70-01-10-4
309. Central Mich (3-24)60.60-00-20-4


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 74.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
5. Memphis (33-4)95.74-35-16-0
44. Uab (23-7)87.01-20-15-3
80. Houston (20-10)82.21-21-21-2
101. Texas El Paso (19-10)80.90-31-22-1
208. Tulane (11-16)71.00-30-20-3
214. Central Florida (12-15)70.60-20-21-3
224. Marshall (12-16)70.21-20-20-1
228. Rice (10-16)69.90-30-21-2
233. Tulsa (10-17)69.30-20-20-2
242. SMU (12-16)68.40-10-30-2
255. SO Mississippi (7-21)67.60-30-30-3
295. East Carolina (6-20)63.50-11-10-4


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 73.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
75. Western KY (22-8)82.70-01-32-3
79. South Alabama (23-7)82.30-20-02-1
150. Middle Tenn St (15-12)75.80-10-12-3
160. Ul Lafayette (13-16)75.00-20-21-5
178. Denver (16-15)73.70-00-01-4
199. North Texas (11-14)71.60-00-20-4
210. Arkansas Lr (13-15)71.00-10-20-5
213. Troy St (11-15)70.70-00-01-4
221. Arkansas St (10-18)70.30-00-30-5
231. New Orleans (8-19)69.60-20-00-7
263. Florida Intl (7-20)66.60-10-20-5


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 73.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
78. Montana (22-7)82.50-11-01-1
144. Northrn Arizona (18-11)76.70-00-11-4
162. Eastern Wash (14-15)74.90-20-20-5
186. Sacramento St (13-15)72.80-10-10-2
201. Portland St (10-16)71.50-20-01-3
209. Montana St (13-14)71.00-00-00-2
219. Idaho St (11-14)70.30-10-01-1
244. Weber St (8-17)68.40-00-01-3


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 71.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
91. Pacific (22-8)81.60-11-11-0
149. Long Beach St (17-12)75.80-00-11-3
161. UC Irvine (16-11)75.00-10-02-2
191. UC Santa Barbara (14-14)72.10-10-00-3
197. CS Fullerton (15-13)71.80-00-00-2
251. CS Northridge (10-17)67.90-00-01-3
252. Cal Poly (8-19)67.80-00-00-5
300. UC Riverside (5-22)62.70-00-01-3


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 70.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
85. Winthrop (21-8)81.90-21-20-0
141. Coast Carolina (16-10)77.10-00-22-2
158. Birmingham Southern (17-9)75.20-00-10-3
182. High Point (14-13)73.30-00-10-3
203. Radford (14-13)71.40-20-00-2
218. Charleston Sou (10-15)70.40-00-00-4
247. NC Asheville (8-18)68.40-10-20-4
307. Liberty (4-23)60.70-00-11-4
316. VMI (4-20)59.40-00-10-4


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 70.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
81. Murray St (23-7)82.20-20-20-0
140. Samford (18-11)77.10-10-11-3
154. Tennessee Tech (17-12)75.60-00-32-1
175. Austin Peay (17-14)73.90-00-00-5
179. Jacksonville St (15-13)73.50-00-00-5
193. Tennessee St (12-15)71.90-10-00-3
204. Eastern KY (13-16)71.20-10-10-5
205. Tenn Martin (11-15)71.10-10-10-3
298. Eastern Ill (6-21)62.80-00-01-2
306. SE Missouri St (5-20)61.10-10-00-3
321. Morehead St (3-23)57.70-10-00-2


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 70.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
135. Davidson (17-11)77.30-40-01-1
152. Geo Southern (18-10)75.70-00-10-1
181. Chattanooga (15-13)73.40-00-01-2
184. Elon (12-14)73.20-00-11-3
189. Coll Of Charltn (15-11)72.70-01-10-1
217. Appalachian St (12-16)70.40-10-11-1
225. Furman (12-13)70.20-00-00-1
238. Westrn Carolina (10-17)69.00-00-20-2
259. NC Greensboro (10-19)67.20-10-20-1
262. Wofford (7-18)66.60-10-10-3
312. The Citadel (6-21)59.90-00-10-0


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 70.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
58. Northwestern St (23-8)84.71-10-22-2
128. Sam Houston (18-9)77.80-00-11-3
183. SE Louisiana (13-11)73.20-00-01-2
198. Lamar (14-13)71.70-10-00-4
206. McNeese St (11-14)71.10-10-00-3
207. Stephen Austin (14-12)71.10-00-00-1
211. Texas Arlington (10-16)70.90-10-00-4
253. Tex San Antonio (9-17)67.80-10-00-4
260. Ul Monroe (7-18)66.80-20-10-4
288. Nicholls St (8-18)64.60-10-10-3
328. SW Texas St (2-22)54.20-20-00-2


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 69.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
23. Bucknell (26-5)90.12-30-12-0
125. Holy Cross (20-12)77.90-50-11-2
180. Lehigh (17-12)73.40-40-00-2
241. American (12-17)68.40-50-00-1
281. Lafayette (9-17)65.60-20-00-2
299. Colgate (9-19)62.80-50-00-0
305. Navy (8-18)61.60-30-00-1
330. Army (3-22)53.50-40-00-1


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 68.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
139. Oral Roberts (20-12)77.10-10-31-4
169. Iupui (17-10)74.50-00-00-3
192. Valparaiso (16-12)72.10-20-11-0
223. Chicago St (11-19)70.20-10-30-1
234. Mo Kansas City (13-14)69.30-00-20-1
268. Oakland (9-18)66.20-00-10-2
275. Southern Utah (9-20)65.90-00-00-1
313. Western Ill (5-21)59.80-20-10-0
320. Centenary (3-23)57.80-00-10-2


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 67.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
176. Fair Dickinson (19-12)73.80-00-10-3
177. Monmouth NJ (19-15)73.70-11-10-1
195. Central Conn (18-11)71.90-00-00-1
243. Robert Morris (13-14)68.40-20-00-0
250. Mt St Marys (13-17)67.90-00-00-3
257. Wagner (12-14)67.30-10-00-0
271. Liu Brooklyn (11-16)66.10-00-00-1
279. St Francis NY (10-17)65.60-10-10-1
326. St Francis PA (3-24)56.40-10-00-1


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 67.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
122. Pennsylvania (19-9)78.20-30-00-3
220. Princeton (12-14)70.30-00-00-4
237. Yale (15-14)69.00-20-01-2
248. Cornell (12-15)68.10-30-00-1
258. Harvard (13-14)67.30-10-00-0
286. Brown (10-17)64.90-00-00-1
290. Columbia (10-16)64.20-00-00-1
310. Dartmouth (6-21)60.40-10-10-1


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 66.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
168. Albany NY (21-11)74.50-30-00-2
229. Binghamton (16-13)69.90-00-20-1
245. Boston U (12-16)68.40-30-10-0
249. Vermont (13-17)68.10-10-10-2
265. Hartford (12-15)66.50-00-00-1
266. New Hampshire (12-17)66.30-10-10-2
285. Maine (10-16)64.90-10-00-1
291. Umbc (10-19)64.10-10-00-2
323. Stony Brook (4-24)57.40-40-10-0


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 64.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
155. Delaware St (21-14)75.40-10-51-3
240. SO Carolina St (14-16)68.50-00-20-2
269. Bethune Cookman (15-15)66.10-20-00-1
273. Hampton (16-16)66.00-10-00-1
274. Coppin St (12-18)65.90-30-30-3
277. Florida A&M (13-17)65.80-20-20-2
283. Norfolk St (13-18)65.40-20-20-1
317. Howard (7-22)59.30-00-00-3
318. NO Carolina A&T (6-23)58.50-00-10-3
319. MD Eastrn Shore (7-22)58.20-20-00-1
327. Morgan St (4-26)54.60-30-00-2


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 62.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
164. Texas A&M-CC (16-8)74.70-00-10-3
200. North Dakota St (12-12)71.60-01-00-2
246. Utah Valley St (14-13)68.40-00-00-1
272. IPFW (8-18)66.00-00-10-5
282. South Dakota St (8-20)65.50-10-20-7
289. UC Davis (7-20)64.30-00-21-2
304. Longwood (8-20)61.90-10-00-4
324. Northern Colorado (3-24)57.40-10-10-3
329. TX Pan American (3-24)53.60-30-10-2
333. Savannah St (1-26)45.30-20-10-3


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 62.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
190. Belmont (20-11)72.20-20-10-0
215. Lipscomb (21-11)70.40-10-10-0
235. Gardner-Webb (17-12)69.20-20-01-0
264. Fla Atlantic (15-13)66.50-00-00-1
280. East Tenn St (15-13)65.60-10-00-1
292. Stetson (14-18)64.00-10-20-1
301. Kennesaw St (11-15)62.20-10-00-0
308. Campbell (10-18)60.70-00-10-0
322. Mercer (9-19)57.50-00-00-2
331. North Florida (4-22)50.70-00-00-0
334. Jacksonville (1-26)44.40-10-10-0


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 61.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
202. Southern (19-13)71.50-30-21-2
287. Jackson St (14-17)64.70-10-10-1
294. Alabama A&M (11-12)63.70-10-00-2
296. Grambling (12-13)63.20-00-10-1
297. Alabama St (12-18)63.20-10-11-2
302. Ark Pine Bluff (11-16)62.10-00-00-2
311. Miss Valley St (9-18)60.00-00-10-2
315. Alcorn St (8-20)59.70-00-20-1
325. Texas Southern (6-22)56.60-30-30-0
332. Prairie View (3-24)50.20-10-10-0
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