NCAA Basketball Rankings, RPI, Predictions

Gambling vs. Investing: An Analysis (2 of 2)

Contributing author Ron James runs Monte Carlo simulations to examine the risks involved in sports betting. Think you’re guaranteed to make millions if you can pick winners at a 60% rate? Think again.

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  Printable NCAA Bracket
2008 Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Games against non-D1 teams not considered in power rankings or predictions.

Conference Predictive / Points Rankings

By ranking
Last Updated Mon Feb 26 21:48:23 EST 2007

Home Court Advantage = 2.5

BIG EAST AVERAGE = 83.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
3. Connecticut (30-4)89.29-28-22-0
5. Villanova (28-5)88.13-510-07-0
11. Pittsburgh (25-8)86.94-37-35-1
14. Georgetown (23-10)86.03-66-25-1
16. West Virginia (21-11)85.75-75-23-1
32. Marquette (19-11)83.64-42-44-3
34. Notre Dame (16-14)83.50-62-76-1
40. Cincinnati (20-13)83.12-73-37-2
41. Syracuse (23-12)83.14-74-33-2
43. Louisville (21-13)82.90-94-25-1
60. Rutgers (18-14)81.50-52-35-4
64. Seton Hall (18-12)81.42-33-33-3
78. DePaul (12-15)80.30-34-73-4
83. Providence (12-15)80.10-70-65-1
111. St Johns (12-15)78.41-61-32-5
168. South Florida (7-22)74.51-40-60-7


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 83.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
1. Florida (33-6)90.110-52-19-0
7. LSU (26-9)87.58-52-34-1
15. Tennessee (22-8)85.96-50-27-1
19. Arkansas (22-10)85.54-52-23-1
23. South Carolina (22-15)84.74-85-13-5
24. Kentucky (22-13)84.55-93-23-2
50. Alabama (18-13)82.35-61-33-2
52. Vanderbilt (17-13)82.14-80-32-1
99. Georgia (15-15)79.22-91-13-2
104. Mississippi St (15-15)78.92-81-12-3
116. Auburn (12-16)78.10-90-33-2
129. Mississippi (14-16)77.12-81-10-2


ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 82.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
2. Duke (32-4)89.56-34-113-0
12. North Carolina (23-8)86.62-54-09-3
18. Boston College (27-8)85.52-32-211-2
28. North Carolina St (22-10)83.82-64-07-3
35. Florida St (20-10)83.41-50-19-4
54. Miami Fla (18-16)81.91-61-67-4
55. Clemson (18-13)81.91-31-36-6
59. Maryland (18-13)81.62-70-26-3
71. Wake Forest (17-17)80.71-74-22-7
74. Virginia Tech (14-16)80.50-61-23-7
77. Virginia (15-15)80.32-40-46-5
105. Georgia Tech (11-17)78.81-31-33-10


BIG TEN AVERAGE = 82.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
10. Illinois (26-7)86.93-36-36-0
13. Ohio St (26-6)86.12-35-35-0
20. Iowa (25-9)85.14-27-32-3
29. Michigan St (21-12)83.74-75-30-1
37. Michigan (22-11)83.31-64-37-1
38. Indiana (19-12)83.23-74-23-1
47. Wisconsin (19-12)82.52-44-45-1
70. Minnesota (16-15)80.71-54-52-1
103. Penn St (15-15)79.01-61-60-3
113. Northwestern (13-15)78.31-41-54-2
148. Purdue (9-19)76.00-52-62-2


PACIFIC TEN AVERAGE = 81.3


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
8. UCLA (32-7)87.53-58-16-1
17. Washington (26-7)85.74-12-27-2
30. Arizona (20-13)83.72-72-27-3
45. California (20-11)82.62-41-210-2
68. Oregon (14-18)80.91-61-42-4
72. Stanford (16-14)80.71-41-54-3
97. USC (16-13)79.32-31-43-2
101. Washington St (11-17)79.12-30-43-7
133. Oregon St (13-18)76.90-52-23-6
134. Arizona St (11-17)76.90-51-31-6


BIG TWELVE AVERAGE = 81.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
6. Texas (30-7)87.66-44-25-1
9. Kansas (24-8)87.12-23-310-2
36. Texas AM (22-9)83.41-41-26-3
49. Oklahoma (20-9)82.41-43-04-4
58. Oklahoma St (17-16)81.72-51-43-5
69. Colorado (20-10)80.80-32-24-4
76. Iowa St (15-14)80.41-41-25-5
80. Kansas St (15-13)80.11-21-13-4
92. Nebraska (19-14)79.40-43-45-4
109. Texas Tech (15-17)78.50-50-56-5
137. Baylor (4-13)76.80-30-42-5
144. Missouri (12-16)76.31-41-14-7


MISSOURI VALLEY AVERAGE = 79.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
26. Bradley (22-11)83.82-14-35-4
27. Wichita St (25-9)83.81-34-45-2
31. Northern Iowa (21-10)83.72-15-31-5
33. Missouri St (22-9)83.50-12-65-2
51. Southern Ill (22-10)82.10-16-44-1
53. Creighton (20-10)82.01-05-43-4
141. Drake (10-19)76.50-21-70-6
158. Indiana St (12-16)75.30-03-72-3
177. Evansville (10-19)74.20-00-81-5
179. Illinois St (8-19)74.10-00-91-3


MOUNTAINWEST AVERAGE = 77.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
61. San Diego St (22-9)81.40-00-25-3
63. Air Force (22-7)81.40-20-05-2
93. BYU (19-9)79.40-00-03-6
94. Unlv (17-13)79.40-00-12-8
124. New Mexico (17-13)77.50-10-04-8
136. Colorado St (14-15)76.80-00-01-11
143. Utah (13-15)76.40-00-14-7
149. Wyoming (13-18)75.90-00-13-10
241. TCU (6-24)71.20-00-10-10


ATLANTIC TEN AVERAGE = 77.4


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
25. Geo Washington (27-3)84.30-11-18-1
56. St Josephs (19-14)81.81-50-25-4
65. Xavier (21-11)81.20-31-04-4
79. Temple (17-15)80.22-41-05-6
90. Charlotte (19-13)79.50-20-24-3
96. La Salle (18-10)79.30-20-12-3
112. Massachusetts (13-15)78.40-30-23-5
115. St Louis (16-13)78.20-40-05-4
122. Fordham (16-16)77.60-10-14-7
139. Dayton (13-17)76.70-11-22-9
142. Rhode Island (14-14)76.50-20-03-5
198. Richmond (13-17)73.10-20-13-7
248. St Bonaventure (8-19)70.90-20-00-5
306. Duquesne (3-24)66.60-40-00-7


WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 77.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
42. Nevada (26-6)83.01-10-08-2
82. Utah St (22-9)80.10-11-25-0
91. Louisiana Tech (19-13)79.50-10-41-5
106. Hawaii (17-11)78.80-02-13-5
125. New Mexico St (15-14)77.50-10-34-3
131. Fresno St (15-13)77.00-01-12-6
151. Boise St (13-15)75.90-00-21-6
214. San Jose St (6-25)72.60-00-30-6
284. Idaho (3-25)68.70-20-30-4


COLONIAL AVERAGE = 76.9


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
21. George Mason (27-8)85.12-14-33-3
39. NC Wilmington (25-8)83.21-22-23-2
48. Hofstra (26-7)82.42-01-36-2
57. Old Dominion (24-10)81.71-12-55-1
95. Northeastern (18-11)79.40-21-41-2
107. VA Commonwealth (19-10)78.70-21-42-2
118. Drexel (15-16)78.10-30-42-4
221. Delaware (9-21)72.20-20-60-3
226. Georgia St (7-22)72.00-30-50-6
233. Towson (12-16)71.50-11-30-3
234. William & Mary (8-20)71.50-20-30-4
298. James Madison (5-23)67.30-30-20-7


WEST COAST CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 76.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
22. Gonzaga (29-4)84.80-42-06-0
110. St Marys CA (16-12)78.50-21-11-4
120. San Diego (17-12)77.90-30-01-0
135. Loyola Marymnt (12-18)76.90-40-01-6
160. San Francisco (11-17)75.20-20-20-2
161. Santa Clara (11-16)75.00-31-01-2
187. Portland (11-17)73.70-20-01-2
210. Pepperdine (7-20)72.70-40-11-1


CONFERENCE USA AVERAGE = 75.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
4. Memphis (33-4)88.83-36-17-0
46. Uab (23-7)82.51-30-05-4
73. Houston (20-10)80.61-21-22-3
89. Texas El Paso (19-10)79.50-21-32-1
190. Central Florida (12-15)73.50-30-12-3
204. SMU (12-16)72.80-10-30-4
209. Tulane (11-16)72.80-30-20-4
219. Tulsa (10-17)72.30-20-20-4
220. Rice (10-16)72.20-30-21-4
228. Marshall (12-16)72.01-20-20-3
251. SO Mississippi (7-21)70.90-30-30-5
277. East Carolina (6-20)69.10-11-10-5


METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 75.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
67. Iona (23-8)81.00-20-01-1
108. Marist (19-10)78.60-00-01-4
126. Manhattan (20-11)77.30-10-13-2
130. Siena (15-13)77.00-00-21-1
156. St Peters (17-15)75.50-20-01-3
167. Loyola MD (15-13)74.60-00-00-4
173. Niagara (11-18)74.30-00-20-3
211. Canisius (9-20)72.70-10-00-2
218. Fairfield (9-19)72.60-20-00-4
225. Rider (8-20)72.00-10-10-3


HORIZON AVERAGE = 75.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
66. Wisc Milwaukee (21-9)81.10-21-23-1
87. Butler (20-13)79.80-11-41-3
140. Loyola Chi (17-11)76.60-01-11-4
152. Illinois Chi (16-14)75.70-00-12-4
163. Detroit (14-16)74.90-10-21-4
165. Wright St (12-15)74.60-00-03-3
171. Wisc Green Bay (14-16)74.40-10-21-5
232. Cleveland St (8-18)71.70-10-10-6
254. Youngstown St (6-21)70.80-00-01-5


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 75.2


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
62. Kent (24-9)81.40-10-12-3
75. Akron (22-10)80.50-00-32-3
102. Miami Ohio (18-11)79.00-00-41-5
117. Ohio (18-11)78.10-10-11-4
119. Northern Ill (16-11)77.90-00-12-4
121. Toledo (19-11)77.70-10-02-3
138. Buffalo (18-13)76.70-10-02-5
197. Ball St (8-18)73.10-00-10-3
203. Western Mich (13-17)72.90-00-10-6
228. Marshall (12-16)72.01-20-20-3
245. Bowling Green (7-21)71.00-00-22-3
262. Eastern Mich (7-21)70.20-01-10-3
299. Central Mich (3-24)67.20-00-10-3


BIG SKY AVERAGE = 74.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
81. Montana (22-7)80.10-11-01-1
153. Northrn Arizona (18-11)75.60-00-11-4
154. Eastern Wash (14-15)75.60-20-10-6
166. Sacramento St (13-15)74.60-10-10-2
176. Portland St (10-16)74.20-20-02-3
202. Montana St (13-14)72.90-00-00-2
212. Idaho St (11-14)72.70-10-01-1
240. Weber St (8-17)71.20-00-01-3


SUN BELT AVERAGE = 74.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
86. South Alabama (23-7)79.80-20-02-1
100. Western KY (22-8)79.10-11-22-3
157. Middle Tenn St (15-12)75.40-10-12-3
162. Ul Lafayette (13-16)75.00-20-12-6
175. Denver (16-15)74.20-00-01-4
193. Troy St (11-15)73.50-00-01-3
205. North Texas (11-14)72.80-00-20-4
217. Arkansas Lr (13-15)72.60-10-10-6
223. Arkansas St (10-18)72.10-00-30-4
238. New Orleans (8-19)71.30-20-00-6
269. Florida Intl (7-20)69.80-10-30-5


BIG WEST AVERAGE = 73.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
88. Pacific (22-8)79.70-11-11-2
145. UC Irvine (16-11)76.30-10-02-2
147. Long Beach St (17-12)76.00-00-10-4
172. CS Fullerton (15-13)74.30-00-00-3
185. UC Santa Barbara (14-14)73.80-10-00-3
244. Cal Poly (8-19)71.10-00-00-5
259. CS Northridge (10-17)70.50-00-01-3
302. UC Riverside (5-22)67.10-00-01-3


SOUTHERN AVERAGE = 72.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
132. Davidson (17-11)76.90-30-11-1
159. Geo Southern (18-10)75.30-00-10-2
178. Coll Of Charltn (15-11)74.10-01-10-0
207. Elon (12-14)72.80-00-11-2
216. Chattanooga (15-13)72.60-00-01-1
229. Appalachian St (12-16)71.90-10-10-1
230. Furman (12-13)71.80-00-00-1
235. Westrn Carolina (10-17)71.40-10-10-3
237. Wofford (7-18)71.30-20-10-2
268. NC Greensboro (10-19)69.80-20-10-1
324. The Citadel (6-21)63.80-00-10-0


SOUTHLAND AVERAGE = 71.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
84. Northwestern St (23-8)80.01-10-21-2
164. Sam Houston (18-9)74.70-00-11-3
184. SE Louisiana (13-11)73.80-00-00-2
195. Texas Arlington (10-16)73.10-10-00-4
199. Stephen Austin (14-12)73.00-00-00-2
206. Lamar (14-13)72.80-10-00-4
231. McNeese St (11-14)71.70-10-00-3
239. Tex San Antonio (9-17)71.30-10-00-4
276. Ul Monroe (7-18)69.20-20-10-4
301. Nicholls St (8-18)67.10-10-10-2
328. SW Texas St (2-22)63.10-20-00-2


OHIO VALLEY AVERAGE = 71.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
98. Murray St (23-7)79.20-20-10-1
146. Samford (18-11)76.10-10-11-3
183. Austin Peay (17-14)73.80-00-00-5
188. Tennessee Tech (17-12)73.60-00-32-1
196. Jacksonville St (15-13)73.10-00-00-4
208. Tennessee St (12-15)72.80-10-00-3
224. Tenn Martin (11-15)72.00-10-10-3
253. Eastern KY (13-16)70.80-10-10-5
303. Eastern Ill (6-21)67.00-00-01-2
308. SE Missouri St (5-20)66.30-10-00-3
321. Morehead St (3-23)64.50-10-00-2


BIG SOUTH AVERAGE = 71.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
85. Winthrop (21-8)80.00-31-10-0
155. Coast Carolina (16-10)75.50-00-22-2
170. Birmingham Southern (17-9)74.50-00-10-3
200. High Point (14-13)73.00-10-00-3
222. Radford (14-13)72.20-20-00-3
242. Charleston Sou (10-15)71.10-00-00-4
279. NC Asheville (8-18)69.00-10-20-4
314. VMI (4-20)65.50-00-10-4
318. Liberty (4-23)64.80-10-01-3


PATRIOT AVERAGE = 71.1


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
44. Bucknell (26-5)82.71-31-12-0
123. Holy Cross (20-12)77.50-20-41-1
191. Lehigh (17-12)73.50-20-20-1
257. American (12-17)70.60-20-30-2
288. Lafayette (9-17)68.30-00-30-1
293. Colgate (9-19)67.70-20-30-0
304. Navy (8-18)66.90-10-20-1
330. Army (3-22)61.90-10-30-1


MID-CONTINENT AVERAGE = 70.8


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
127. Oral Roberts (20-12)77.30-10-31-4
186. Iupui (17-10)73.80-00-00-3
192. Valparaiso (16-12)73.50-20-11-0
236. Chicago St (11-19)71.40-10-30-1
263. Southern Utah (9-20)70.20-00-00-2
265. Mo Kansas City (13-14)70.00-00-20-0
270. Oakland (9-18)69.80-00-10-1
309. Western Ill (5-21)66.30-20-10-0
319. Centenary (3-23)64.60-00-10-2


NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 70.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
169. Fair Dickinson (19-12)74.50-00-10-2
174. Central Conn (18-11)74.30-00-00-2
180. Monmouth NJ (19-15)74.00-20-01-1
243. Robert Morris (13-14)71.10-20-00-0
258. Mt St Marys (13-17)70.60-00-00-4
260. Wagner (12-14)70.30-10-00-0
275. St Francis NY (10-17)69.30-10-10-0
281. Liu Brooklyn (11-16)68.90-00-00-0
325. St Francis PA (3-24)63.70-10-00-1


AMERICA EAST AVERAGE = 70.7


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
150. Albany NY (21-11)75.90-30-00-1
213. Binghamton (16-13)72.60-00-20-1
215. Boston U (12-16)72.60-20-20-0
227. Vermont (13-17)72.00-10-10-2
256. Hartford (12-15)70.70-00-00-1
272. New Hampshire (12-17)69.70-10-10-1
274. Umbc (10-19)69.50-10-00-3
289. Maine (10-16)68.30-10-00-1
315. Stony Brook (4-24)65.40-40-10-0


IVY LEAGUE AVERAGE = 70.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
114. Pennsylvania (19-9)78.20-30-01-3
246. Yale (15-14)70.90-10-11-2
247. Princeton (12-14)70.90-00-00-4
249. Cornell (12-15)70.90-10-20-0
255. Harvard (13-14)70.70-10-00-0
291. Brown (10-17)68.20-00-00-1
297. Columbia (10-16)67.40-00-10-0
305. Dartmouth (6-21)66.80-10-10-1


ATLANTICSUN AVERAGE = 68.0


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
181. Belmont (20-11)74.00-20-10-1
194. Lipscomb (21-11)73.30-20-00-1
252. East Tenn St (15-13)70.80-10-00-1
261. Fla Atlantic (15-13)70.30-00-00-0
266. Gardner-Webb (17-12)69.90-20-01-0
287. Stetson (14-18)68.40-10-20-1
300. Campbell (10-18)67.20-00-10-0
307. Kennesaw St (11-15)66.50-10-00-0
320. Mercer (9-19)64.60-00-00-2
329. North Florida (4-22)62.60-00-00-0
332. Jacksonville (1-26)60.10-10-10-0


INDEPENDENTS AVERAGE = 67.6


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
128. Texas A&M-CC (16-8)77.20-00-10-3
182. North Dakota St (12-12)73.90-01-00-2
250. Utah Valley St (14-13)70.90-00-00-1
278. IPFW (8-18)69.00-00-20-2
285. UC Davis (7-20)68.70-00-21-2
295. South Dakota St (8-20)67.50-20-10-6
312. Longwood (8-20)66.00-10-00-4
313. Northern Colorado (3-24)65.70-10-10-2
327. TX Pan American (3-24)63.40-30-10-2
334. Savannah St (1-26)54.00-20-10-4


MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 67.5


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
189. Delaware St (21-14)73.60-10-51-2
267. SO Carolina St (14-16)69.90-10-10-2
273. Hampton (16-16)69.50-10-00-0
282. Coppin St (12-18)68.90-30-30-3
286. Florida A&M (13-17)68.50-20-20-2
290. Norfolk St (13-18)68.20-20-20-1
292. Bethune Cookman (15-15)68.10-10-10-2
310. Howard (7-22)66.30-00-00-4
317. NO Carolina A&T (6-23)64.80-00-10-4
323. MD Eastrn Shore (7-22)63.80-20-00-1
331. Morgan St (4-26)60.40-30-00-3


SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE AVERAGE = 66.4


Team
 Rating 
vs. Top 25
vs. 26-50
vs. 51-100
201. Southern (19-13)72.90-30-21-2
280. Jackson St (14-17)68.90-10-10-1
283. Alabama A&M (11-12)68.80-10-00-3
294. Ark Pine Bluff (11-16)67.50-00-00-2
296. Alabama St (12-18)67.40-10-11-2
311. Grambling (12-13)66.20-00-10-1
316. Alcorn St (8-20)65.20-00-20-1
322. Miss Valley St (9-18)64.50-00-10-3
326. Texas Southern (6-22)63.50-30-30-1
333. Prairie View (3-24)58.70-10-10-0
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