Mike's 2005 Picks

Below are my picks from 2005, along with my exact commentary. Since the pool I was in rewards upsets, I made a few changes to what's below:
    Had Wisconsin-Milwaukee upsetting Alabama in the first round (this happened).
    Had Montana over Washington in the first round (didn't happen, but was relatively close for a 1-16 game at 88-77).
    Had Charlotte over NC State in the first round (my first guess was right).
    Had Michigan State beating Duke in the Sweet 16. As indicated in my commentary below, BracketBrains suggested that the MSU-Duke game was a fairly even matchup, and with the extra reward for Michigan State winning, I felt I should go with them
    Had Michigan State going to the Final Four. Again, as I mention below, I felt they and Duke were the top two teams in their region.
Utah State over Arizona is a little less than a 50-50 shot by my analyses, but Utah State is probably the best #14 seed ever (their predictive rating is #27, meaning their "true" seed should be somewhere around a 7), and Arizona is probably a bit overrated. Utah State's seven losses are all by 7 points or fewer, so I certainly don't see Arizona blowing them out. The entire bottom half of the Chicago bracket is very even, and there are probably six teams (LSU, UAB, Arizona, Utah State, Southern Illinois, and Oklahoma State) with a legitimate shot at the Crazy Eight.

The following is my commentary from just before the 2005 NCAA Tournament:

Though Washington is a strong team, there are a lot of signs pointing to them losing early. And no, I don't have an East Coast bias -- I live in sunny California. Louisville, on the other hand, is a very strong #4 seed, and stands a great chance at beating Pittsburgh, Washington, or whoever comes from that pod, and making the regional final.

There are a few big upsets that I almost picked. I am high on Michigan State's chances, and think they were significantly underseeded and have a pretty good shot at making the Final Four. They have a stronger profile than any team in the bottom half of the Austin region. That bottom half is wide open - Oklahoma, Kentucky, Utah, and Cincinnati all stand as strong contenders. I have Utah making it through, but they could just as easily lose to UTEP in the first round.

Likewise, I have Villanova advancing to the Sweet 16, but they face a very difficult first round game against New Mexico.

--Chicago Region--
Illinois
Illinois
Fair Dickinson
Illinois
Texas
Texas
Nevada
Illinois
Alabama
Alabama
Wisc Milwaukee
Boston College
Boston College
Boston College
Pennsylvania
Illinois   
LSU
Uab
Uab
Uab
Arizona
Utah St
Utah St
Oklahoma St
Southern Ill
Southern Ill
St Marys CA
Oklahoma St
Oklahoma St
Oklahoma St
SE Louisiana
--Albuquerque Region--Illinois
Washington
Washington
Montana
Pittsburgh
Pacific
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Georgia Tech
Geo Washington
Geo Washington
Louisville
Louisville
Louisville
Ul Lafayette
Wake Forest    
Texas Tech
Texas Tech
UCLA
Gonzaga
Gonzaga
Gonzaga
Winthrop
Wake Forest
West Virginia
West Virginia
Creighton
Wake Forest
Wake Forest
Wake Forest
Chattanooga
--Syracuse Region--North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
Oakland
North Carolina
Minnesota
Iowa St
Iowa St
North Carolina
Villanova
Villanova
New Mexico
Villanova
Florida
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Bucknell
Connecticut
Charlotte
North Carolina St
North Carolina St
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Central Florida
--Austin Region--North Carolina
Duke
Duke
Delaware St
Duke
Stanford
Stanford
Mississippi St
Duke
Michigan St
Michigan St
Old Dominion
Michigan St
Syracuse
Syracuse
Vermont
Duke
Utah
Utah
Texas El Paso
Utah
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Niagara
Utah
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Iowa
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Eastern KY
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