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NFL Playoff Predictions 2020: Kansas City Chiefs Become Super Bowl Favorites
January 13, 2020 - by Jason Lisk
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to be the top offense in 2020, to the surprise of many (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
The 2020 NFL Playoffs are down to the Conference Championship Games, and here are our NFL Playoff Predictions and Projections now that only four teams remain.
Before we get to the specific matchups, here are the Super Bowl win odds for each playoff participant. These win odds are based off computer simulations to determine how frequently each team ends up as the champion. Note that the team ratings used in these simulations are full-season ratings, which don’t account for injuries or other major factors that might change the quality of a team. (So, for example, the Chiefs might be a bit better than their rating implies, since it includes games where Patrick Mahomes didn’t play.)
| Team | Playoff Seed | Super Bowl Win Odds | Change in SB Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | AFC #2 | 38.6% | +20.2% |
| San Francisco 49ers | NFC #1 | 37.2% | +15.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | AFC #6 | 13.5% | +10.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | NFC #2 | 10.7% | +3.0% |
The Kansas City Chiefs roared back against Houston after falling behind 24-0 at home, and are now our top favorite to win the title, just narrowly ahead of San Francisco. Over the last few weeks, Kansas City has benefited from the Patriots losing at home to Miami to give the Chiefs the No. 2 seed, and then New England and Baltimore losing at home to the Titans. As a result, Kansas City can get to the Super Bowl without playing on the road, which is a vastly different path than what looked likely a month ago.
Tennessee, meanwhile, has nearly tripled their title odds with the big upset in Baltimore. They are still underdogs at Kansas City, but our projections do give them a slightly greater chance than Green Bay of winning the title. Based on our numbers, there is a 13.5% that Mike Vrabel will be undergoing offseason surgery.
2020 NFL Playoff Conference Championship Matchups
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sunday, January 19 at 3:05 pm ET
Point Spread: Kansas City by 7.5 points (Point Total: 52)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: Kansas City, 79.0%
Tennessee and Kansas City meet in the AFC title game in a fascinating contrast of styles. Tennessee has won two playoff games on the road at New England and Baltimore with defense, ball control, and behind the rushing of Derrick Henry. They have thrown sparingly with the lead, and became the first team since the 1988 Bengals to win consecutive playoff games with under 100 passing yards. Tennessee used early Baltimore turnovers and key fourth down stops to hold the Ravens to 12 points, despite Baltimore finishing with 530 yards of offense.
Kansas City got off to a start like Baltimore in the divisional round against Houston, with turnovers and miscues putting them in a big hole. But the Chiefs came all the way back in one quarter, and ended up winning the game by a rout, 51-31.
These teams played in the regular season, and Tennessee will hope lightning strikes twice, or maybe even a third time. There were five games this season where a team was outgained by 150 or more yards and gave up more than 500 total yards and won. Tennessee over Baltimore and Tennessee over Kansas City were two of them.
How does that happen? Well, here’s how it happened in Nashville:
Kansas City failed to convert a third down, botched two field goals, and gave up a quick touchdown drive and a two-point conversion to lose the last meeting in improbable fashion. The Chiefs are the solid favorite, and it may take similar heroics and failures by the Chiefs this time.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
When: Sunday, January 19 at 6:40 pm ET
Point Spread: San Francisco by 7 points (Point Total: 45)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: San Francisco, 76.6%
Like Tennessee-Kansas City, the NFC Championship Game is also a rematch of a regular season game. However, the San Francisco-Green Bay game did not come down to late game magic, as the 49ers dominated. Aaron Rodgers fumbled on the opening possession, and was sacked five times on the day. San Francisco effectively sealed the game with a 13-point burst in the final three minutes of the first half to lead 23-0, on the way to a 37-8 victory.
While Green Bay’s offense will have to figure out a way to move the ball against San Francisco, the defense also needs to rebound from that first game. Jimmy Garoppolo did not throw it much with the big lead, but did have 253 passing yards on only 20 attempts. Tight end George Kittle accounted for over half those yards. The Packers must limit San Francisco from explosive plays early if they want this to be a game late, where they are 9-1 in games decided by one score.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Predictions, Divisional Weekend
Before we get to the specific matchups, here are the Super Bowl win odds for each playoff participant. These win odds are based off computer simulations to determine how frequently each team ends up as the champion. Note that the team ratings used in these simulations are full-season ratings, which don’t account for injuries or other major factors that might change the quality of a team. (So, for example, the Chiefs might be a bit better than their rating implies, since it includes games where Patrick Mahomes didn’t play.)
| Team | Playoff Seed | Super Bowl Win Odds | Change in SB Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | AFC #1 | 36.8% | +0.9% |
| San Francisco 49ers | NFC #1 | 21.3% | -0.2% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | AFC #2 | 18.4% | +4.2% |
| Green Bay Packers | NFC #2 | 7.7% | +1.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | NFC #6 | 6.6% | +4.2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | NFC #5 | 4.1% | +2.7% |
| Tennessee Titans | AFC #6 | 3.2% | +2.4% |
| Houston Texans | AFC #4 | 2.0% | +1.1% |
The biggest gainers, in terms of odds of winning the Super Bowl this week, were the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs (both improving by 4.2%). Minnesota’s odds obviously jumped as a result of the upset victory at New Orleans, allowing them to clear a big hurdle, though they get another at San Francisco this week. Kansas City, meanwhile, is the big beneficiary among the teams that had a bye, as the AFC results meant that the Patriots (who would have gone to Kansas City) are eliminated, and the stronger of the two advancing AFC teams by power rating (Tennessee) is now going to Baltimore.
2020 NFL Playoff Divisional Round Matchups
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
When: Saturday, January 11 at 4:35 pm ET
Point Spread: San Francisco by 6.5 points (Point Total: 45)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: San Francisco, 72.3%
The Minnesota Vikings scored the biggest upset of Wildcard Weekend, winning at New Orleans. They did so with their two best cornerbacks out, as the defensive line led by Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter controlled the game and put Drew Brees under consistent pressure. The Vikings are also getting healthier on offense, as running back Dalvin Cook returned after missing two games and looked explosive. Wide receiver Adam Thielen, who has battled leg injuries all season, posted his first 100-yard game since Week 5, including making the key catch in overtime that set Minnesota up on the goal line.
San Francisco has been the class of the NFC for most of the year, though it took them until the final seconds of the last game to clinch the division and top seed in the NFC. All three of their losses have been in close games. The defense had looked dominant for most of the season but relatively struggled down the stretch. They allowed opponents at least 20 first downs in each of the last five games, after allowing that to happen only twice in the first 11 games (and both of those at exactly 21 first downs). They’ve had a week off now to get some key players healthier, though, and we will see if the defensive unit plays more like they did for the first two-thirds of the season.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
When: Saturday, January 11 at 8:15 pm ET
Point Spread: Baltimore by 8.5 points (Point Total: 47)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: Baltimore, 78.3%
The Tennessee Titans continued their great run with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, getting a big road win at New England. Unlike most of the second half of the year, though, it came without big plays in the passing game augmenting the running of Derrick Henry. Tannehill only passed for 72 yards (on 15 pass attempts), as the game played out as a ball control and defensive battle.
The passing game will have to play a bigger part this week against Baltimore’s explosive offense. Baltimore led the NFL in points scored and point differential and are the Super Bowl favorite. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has had an incredible year and Tennessee won’t be able to use the same grinding game plan that resulted in the win over the Patriots, or at least if they do go run heavy, they will need to finish with touchdowns far more frequently.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sunday, January 12 at 3:05 pm ET
Point Spread: Kansas City by 10 points (Point Total: 50)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: Kansas City, 82.0%
In the only rematch of a regular season game, Houston returns to Kansas City. The Texans won at Arrowhead back in October, 31-24. Houston was able to gain an incredible 35 first downs in that game and played ball control and keep away from Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Of course, this is a different Chiefs’ defense now. Chris Jones, Kansas City’s best defensive lineman, was out for the first game. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed only 69 points over the last six games, all wins as the Chiefs surged to the second seed in the AFC. Kansas City survived Mahomes’ absence at mid-season, and is a team that is playing some of its best all-around football entering the postseason.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
When: Sunday, January 12 at 6:40 pm ET
Point Spread: Green Bay by 4 points (Point Total: 46)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: Green Bay, 66.1%
Seattle and Green Bay have both reached this point by winning close games. Seattle is now 11-2 in one-score games, while the Packers went 8-1. So something has to give in what looks like the most even matchup of the Divisional Round. Seattle has had to re-invent their running back group for the playoffs, signing Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, and turning to rookie Travis Homer, who had 8 career rush attempts prior to Week 17.
Green Bay’s turnaround this season was more fueled by defense than offensive improvement. Aaron Rodgers has averaged only 210 passing yards a game over his final 8 games, while the Packers finished the year ranked 9th in points allowed.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Predictions, Wildcard Weekend
Before we get to the specific matchups, here are the Super Bowl win odds for each playoff participant. These win odds are based off computer simulations to determine how frequently each team ends up as the champion.
| Team | Playoff Seed | Super Bowl Win Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | AFC #1 | 35.9% |
| San Francisco 49ers | NFC #1 | 21.5% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | AFC #2 | 14.2% |
| New England Patriots | AFC #3 | 8.2% |
| Green Bay Packers | NFC #2 | 6.5% |
| New Orleans Saints | NFC #3 | 5.9% |
| Minnesota Vikings | NFC #6 | 2.4% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | NFC #4 | 1.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | NFC #5 | 1.4% |
| Houston Texans | AFC #4 | 0.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | AFC #6 | 0.8% |
| Buffalo Bills | AFC #5 | 0.7% |
The Patriots’ loss to the Miami Dolphins shifted the playoff picture in the AFC. New England’s odds are now about one-third of what they were just three weeks ago, based on falling into the wildcard round and now having to win three games (including likely two on the road) to reach the Super Bowl. Kansas City is the beneficiary, as their Super Bowl odds have more than doubled in the same span by getting the bye week.
In the NFC, New Orleans had some bad luck in not getting a bye despite a 13-3 season, as Green Bay survived against Detroit. San Francisco is the NFC Favorite after holding off Seattle, while Green Bay and New Orleans have roughly similar odds, despite the Saints having to play an extra game (and then go to Green Bay if they win).
The NFC is more balanced than the AFC. Three AFC teams have just under a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl, lower than any NFC participant.
2020 NFL Playoff Wildcard Round Matchups
Here is a breakdown of the four Wildcard Round Playoff Matchups.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
When: Saturday, January 4 at 4:35 pm ET
Point Spread: Houston by 3 points (Point Total: 41.5)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: Houston, 59.6%
Buffalo and Houston have identical ratings in our predictive power ratings, at +0.9 points better than an average team. (They are also the two lowest rated teams to reach the postseason).
Buffalo had an easy schedule that carried them to success. They only beat one playoff team, and that was Tennessee before they made the quarterback switch. The Bills are here also mostly on the strength of their pass defense, ranking No. 3 in the NFL in opponent passer rating allowed.
Houston relies on DeShaun Watson to do just enough to win. This team ranks below average in both defensive rushing yards per carry and defensive net yards per pass. Houston went 8-3 in one-score games and won their last five such games, including the key wins over Tennessee and Tampa Bay in December to clinch the AFC South.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
When: Saturday, January 4 at 8:15 pm ET
Point Spread: New England by 4.5 points (Point Total: 43.5)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: New England, 67.2%
New England limps into the playoffs, while Tennessee rode a quarterback change from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill to a hot stretch. The Patriots still had the No. 1 seed in their control entering December, but went 2-3 for the month, including the final loss at home to Miami.
Tennessee went 7-3 after Tannehill became the starting quarterback. The team averaged 30.4 points a game after the switch, after struggling to 16.3 points a game with Mariota. Tannehill averaged a ridiculously high 9.6 yards per attempt for the season, leading the league in that category.
The problem all year for New England has been offense. By New England’s high standards, the offense has been poor. The 420 points scored this year included five defensive touchdowns, and it was still the fewest scored by a Patriots team since 2008. (That was the year that Matt Cassel played because of Tom Brady’s knee injury). Tom Brady averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest of his career.
Completely rule them out at your own peril, though. The Patriots still ranked No. 1 in scoring defense, and the 225 points allowed is the fewest for a Patriots’ team in the Belichick era.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
When: Sunday, January 5 at 1:05 pm ET
Point Spread: New Orleans by 8 points (Point Total: 48)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: New Orleans, 76.1%
New Orleans is the No. 3 seed instead of getting the bye, because Green Bay played the NFC East and the Saints played the NFC West (and thus New Orleans had one more loss in the conference tiebreaker).
New Orleans survived the first half of the season with Drew Brees out. With Brees fully healthy, they have been explosive. The Saints have averaged 36.3 points over their final seven games.
Minnesota might be the most dangerous wildcard team, as they rank in the Top 8 in both net passing yards per play on offense and defense. But they lost all the key games, getting swept by the Packers, losing a close game at Seattle, and losing to Kansas City with quarterback Patrick Mahomes out. Their only win against a playoff team was against the Philadelphia Eagles at home.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
When: Sunday, January 5 at 4:40 pm ET
Point Spread: Seattle by 1.5 points (Point Total: 46)
Money Line Implied Win Odds: Seattle, 52.4%
Seattle lived by winning close games all season (10-1 prior to Week 17), and they “died” by it in the finale that decided whether they would have to go on the road. The Seahawks went 11-5 for the year despite only outscoring opponents by 7 points over the course of the full season.
One of those close wins was over Philadelphia on the road in a low-scoring affair, 17-9 in Week 12.
Philadelphia used a very forgiving division to reach the playoffs. They won their last four games (all against NFC East opponents) to reach the playoffs at 9-7. Injuries decimated the Eagles’ offense all season, particularly at the receiver position, contributing to them finishing 12th in points scored despite being in the bottom five in strength of schedule.
If you want to see our full predictions on this playoff game, check out our Betting Picks.
Predictions, Week 17
We are down to the last week of the NFL season, and there are still two spots to be claimed (with five teams still in the running to get those spots). Only three teams, though, are locked into a specific seed in the playoffs, so there are still lots of games that will impact the playoff matchups.
We examine some of those key matchups below, after we share our NFL playoff predictions heading into Week 17. These predictions are based on simulations of the remaining NFL season, using our algorithmic power ratings to determine win odds for every remaining game.
AFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the AFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 17 (+= team has clinched that specific seed and cannot change with Week 17 result):
| Seed | Team | Projected Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore+ | 13.9-2.1 | 100% |
| 2 | New England | 13.0-3.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Kansas City | 11.8-4.2 | 100% |
| 4 | Houston | 10.6-5.4 | 100% |
| 5 | Buffalo+ | 10.8-5.2 | 100% |
| 6 | Tennessee | 8.4-7.6 | 70% |
| ALIVE | Pittsburgh | 8.1-7.9 | 26% |
| ALIVE | Oakland | 7.3-8.7 | 4% |
The Ravens and Bills are locked into the No. 1 and No. 5 spots, respectively. New England, Kansas City, and Houston could change spots, but it would require some upsets, and it is possible that the Houston Texans decide to rest starters since they cannot get a bye.
The playoff projections for weeks until now have been based on power ratings, and are not accounting for which teams could rest starters. Thus, Pittsburgh’s chances of beating Baltimore and getting a playoff spot are presumably higher if the Ravens rest starters than what are power ratings would show, and the same would be true for Tennessee if Houston rests starters. For that reason, the specific playoff odds above for this week instead incorporate the Vegas implied win odds from the money lines, and lists the odds of each reaching the postseason based on the tiebreaker scenarios. If you want to see all the specific breakdowns of why and when certain teams make the playoffs, see our game breakdowns below.
NFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the NFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 17:
| Seed | Team | Projected Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco | 12.6-3.4 | 100% |
| 2 | Green Bay | 12.6-3.4 | 100% |
| 3 | New Orleans | 12.7-3.3 | 100% |
| 4 | Philadelphia | 8.6-7.4 | 67% |
| 5 | Seattle | 11.4-4.6 | 100% |
| 6 | Minnesota | 10.7-5.3 | 100% |
| ALIVE | Dallas | 7.9-8.1 | 33% |
The only playoff spot open is the NFC East, where Philadelphia has the advantage but needs to win to maintain it. Green Bay’s win over Minnesota means the Vikings are locked into the No. 6 seed heading to Week 17. Meanwhile, the seeding for the rest of the NFC is wide open, with no one else locked into a spot yet. Four teams can still get the No. 1 seed, led by San Francisco.
To see all the specific scenarios for when teams get certain seeds, check our game breakdowns below.
NFL Week 17 Game Breakdown for Playoff Importance
Here is a rundown, in chronological order, of which games matter and what the outcomes mean for playoff seeding. The following games have zero playoff implications: Atlanta-Tampa Bay, Cleveland-Cincinnati, Arizona-LA Rams, NY Jets-Buffalo. Here are the rest of the matchups that have some importance to which teams get in or where teams end up in the playoffs.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (1 pm ET)
The Patriots clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win or tie versus Miami. If they do not win, then their seeding will be determined by the result of the Kansas City Chiefs’ game.
This game also has potential Strength of Victory implications for any Oakland/Pittsburgh tiebreaker (see Oakland game).
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (1 pm ET)
The Chiefs clinch the No. 3 seed in the AFC with a win or tie versus the Chargers. They can move to the No. 2 seed with a win and a Patriots loss to Miami. Kansas City can also drop to the No. 4 seed with a loss combined with a Houston win over Tennessee.
This game also has potential Strength of Victory implications for any Oakland/Pittsburgh tiebreaker (see Oakland game).
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (1 pm ET)
Green Bay has won the NFC North and is still in the running for the No. 1 seed, but would lose out to San Francisco on any tiebreaker if the 49ers beat Seattle. The Packers would win a tiebreaker over New Orleans at 13-3 (in a three-way tie at 13-3 with San Francisco and New Orleans, the Packers would get the No. 2 seed) based on conference record, and get a first-round bye, if they can win against Detroit.
This game also has potential Strength of Victory implications for any Oakland/Pittsburgh tiebreaker (see Oakland game).
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (1 pm ET)
Minnesota is now locked into the No. 6 seed, and this game only matters now because it could potentially impact the Strength of Victory tiebreaker for Oakland/Pittsburgh tiebreaker (see Oakland game). A Bears win here is one of the results that would clinch that particular tiebreaker for Oakland in the event they get to a four-way tie at 8-8 in the AFC.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers (1 pm ET)
New Orleans can finish anywhere between the No. 1 and No. 3 seed, even if they beat Carolina.
New Orleans would lose tiebreakers at 13-3 to San Francisco (head-to-head) or Green Bay (conference record). That means that the New Orleans Saints need to win and have both San Francisco and Green Bay lose or tie (or alternatively, tie and have both of them lose) in order to get the No. 1 seed.
The Saints would win a tiebreaker at 12-4, with a loss, if up against Seattle (head-to-head), but only if Green Bay is not part of the tiebreaker as well. New Orleans would be the No. 3 seed if there is a three-way tie at 12-4 between Seattle and Green Bay.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (4:25 pm ET)
Philadelphia has the lead in the NFC East, and will be the No. 4 seed with (1) a win or tie versus the Giants, or (2) a Dallas loss or tie versus Washington.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins (4:25 pm ET)
Dallas must win and have Philadelphia lose to win the NFC East, because they would then win a tiebreaker at 8-8 based on division record.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (4:25 pm ET)
Since Kansas City will have already played in the earlier time slot, Houston will know around kickoff if they can improve to the No. 3 seed or are locked into the No. 4 seed as a result of a Kansas City win or tie.
Tennessee, meanwhile, is in the playoffs as the AFC No. 6 seed with a win. They are also in with a tie, combined with a Pittsburgh loss or tie to Baltimore. Tennessee is eliminated with a loss combined with an Indianapolis win. They can still get the No. 6 seed with a loss, if Pittsburgh and Indianapolis both lose.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (4:25 pm ET)
Indianapolis is already eliminated from playoff contention but could impact the playoff picture with a win. If Tennessee loses and Indianapolis wins, they both finish at 8-8. The Colts would then win a tiebreaker against Tennessee, eliminating the Titans, based on division record.
That would then mean that either Pittsburgh or Oakland get into final AFC Wildcard spot (Indianapolis would lose the tiebreaker against either of those teams based on head-to-head losses to both.)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (4:25 pm ET)
Baltimore has clinched the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.
Pittsburgh is eliminated with a Tennessee win over Houston. The Steelers would be the AFC No. 6 seed with (1) a win vs. Baltimore + a Tennessee loss/tie, or (2) a tie vs. Baltimore + a Tennessee loss, or (3) a Tennessee loss + an Indianapolis win + an Oakland loss or tie vs. Denver. Pittsburgh can also get in over Oakland if there are four teams at 8-8, but it requires coming back to tie Oakland on the Strength of Victory tiebreaker (see Oakland below).
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (4:25 pm ET)
The Raiders must win, and only get into the playoffs if there is a four-way tie at 8-8 with the Colts, Steelers, and Titans. Oakland is eliminated with a win or tie by Tennessee, Pittsburgh, or Jacksonville. The Raiders also need any of the following teams to win in the earlier time slot (for strength of victory reasons): New England, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit, or Chicago. We should know by around kickoff of the late afternoon games on Sunday whether Oakland holds that potential tiebreaker.
If there is a four-way tie at 8-8, Indianapolis would eliminate Tennessee in the AFC South based on having the better division record. Then, in the three-way tiebreaker between Indianapolis, Oakland, and Pittsburgh, the Colts would be kicked out based on losing head-to-head to the other two teams. Then, Oakland would win the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh based on the strength of victory tiebreaker, if New England OR the Chargers OR Detroit OR Chicago win.
Heading into Week 17, Oakland has a Strength of Victory of 41.5 wins, while Pittsburgh is at 38.5 wins. Pittsburgh will add two wins because Arizona and the Rams play, and the Bengals and Browns play each other (all teams that Pittsburgh beat). Oakland and Pittsburgh both beat Indianapolis, the Chargers, and Bengals. That leaves Miami as the only remaining win that Pittsburgh could add to tie Oakland on Strength of Victory. Meanwhile, Oakland can add another win with the Chargers (since they played them a net of one more time than Pittsburgh), Detroit, or Chicago winning in Week 17.
If none of those results happen for Oakland, the two teams tie on Strength of Victory. If Pittsburgh and Oakland do tie on Strength of Victory, the Steelers win a tiebreaker on Strength of Schedule.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday Night Football):
The NFC No. 1 seed will not be determined until the final game. The winner of this matchup wins the NFC West, with San Francisco clinching the No. 1 seed if they win. By then, all the other results will be in and we will know the specific seeding for both teams with the result. Seattle has some scenarios where they can also get the No. 1 seed, but it would require a Saints loss and a Packers loss so that both also finish at 12-4.
The loser will fall to either the No. 5 seed in the NFC. Seattle holds the tiebreaker over Minnesota so that they will be seeded higher even if they lose and Minnesota beats Chicago.
Predictions, Week 16
AFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the AFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 16:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore | 13.6 - 2.4 | 100.0% |
| 2 | New England | 12.8 - 3.2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Kansas City | 11.4 - 4.6 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Houston | 10.0 - 6.0 | 98.4% |
| 5 | Buffalo | 11.0 - 5.0 | 100.0% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | 8.8 - 7.2 | 52.6% |
Here are the other AFC teams that still have at least a 0.05% chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 9.0 - 7.0 | 48.9% |
NFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the NFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 16:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle | 12.3 - 3.7 | 100.0% |
| 2 | New Orleans | 12.1 - 3.9 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Green Bay | 11.9 - 4.1 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Dallas | 8.4 - 7.6 | 68.2% |
| 5 | San Francisco | 12.3 - 3.7 | 100.0% |
| 6 | Minnesota | 11.4 - 4.6 | 97.9% |
Here are the other NFC teams that still have at least a 0.05% chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 8.1 - 7.9 | 31.8% |
| LA Rams | 9.1 - 6.9 | 2.1% |
Super Bowl Predictions & Odds 2020
Here are our projected Super Bowl odds for the top ten favorites.
| Team | Division | New Super Bowl Win Odds | Super Bowl Win Odds Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | AFC North | 32.0% | 0.0% |
| New England | AFC East | 20.2% | 1.4% |
| San Francisco | NFC West | 14.1% | -6.6% |
| New Orleans | NFC South | 7.2% | 2.1% |
| Kansas City | AFC West | 6.6% | 0.2% |
| Seattle | NFC West | 5.2% | 1.3% |
| Minnesota | NFC North | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Green Bay | NFC North | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Dallas | NFC East | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Houston | AFC South | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Key Matchups Impacting 2020 NFL Playoffs Predictions
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Both AFC East foes have already clinched a playoff berth. Buffalo faces long odds to win the division, but can at least make it interesting with a win at New England on Saturday. The Bills currently trail the Patriots by one game in the division standings, but New England also owns the tiebreaker based on having the better record in common games. In other words, the Patriots would need to lose their last two games and the Bills would need to win out to claim the division.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
New Orleans picked up a big win over Indy on Monday night, and will try to keep it rolling at Tennessee. A win keeps the Saints in the hunt for a first round bye, as well as homefield advantage in the NFC playoffs. As for Tennessee, this game is close to a must-win after losing to Houston last week. The Titans and Texans will face off again next week, but Tennessee currently trails by one game and Houston owns the tiebreaker based on divisional record. Tennessee also has a shot at the No. 6 seed with the same 8-6 record as Pittsburgh, but the Steelers currently hold the tiebreaker based on conference record.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Who wants to win the NFC East? Anyone? The Cowboys and Eagles are both 7-7 as they matchup for the second time this season in a game that will likely determine the division winner and No. 4 seed. Dallas clinches the division with a win after defeating Philly earlier this season. Philadelphia is hosting the game, however, and can wrap up the division with a win on Sunday and a Week 17 win at the Giants.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
This week’s Monday Night affair features an NFC North battle between Green Bay and Minnesota. The Packers lead the North by one game over Minnesota, and will clinch the division and also stay in the hunt for a first round bye with a win. However, Minnesota has a perfect 6-0 home record this season, so that will be a tough task. Even if the Vikings win, they would remain behind the Packers in the division standings based on the division record tiebreaker, but they would at least have some hope heading into Week 17 and could also have a shot at moving up to the No. 5 seed in the NFC.
Tiebreakers for Potential 2020 Playoff Teams
In this section, we list the clinched tiebreakers in both the AFC and NFC. You can see the full list of NFL tiebreaker procedures here.
These charts include all teams within two games of a playoff spot (division or wildcard). They also only list the tiebreaker resolution for teams within two games of each other entering Week 16. It also only includes clinched tiebreakers. For example, New England beat Buffalo earlier this year, and the two teams meet again in Week 16. As of right now, New England has not clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker, since Buffalo can win the next matchup.
Here are the AFC clinched tiebreakers:
| Tiebreak Winner | Reason | Tiebreak Loser |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | H2H | New England |
| New England | Common Games | Buffalo |
| Houston | H2H | New England |
| Houston | DIV | Tennessee |
| Houston | H2H | Kansas City |
| Kansas City | H2H | Baltimore |
| Buffalo | H2H | Pittsburgh |
| Buffalo | H2H | Tennessee |
| Pittsburgh | H2H | Indianapolis |
| Tennessee | H2H | Kansas City |
| Tennessee | H2H | Cleveland |
Next, here are the NFC clinched tiebreakers.
| Tiebreak Winner | Reason | Tiebreak Loser |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | H2H | Seattle |
| Seattle | H2H | Minnesota |
| Green Bay | DIV | Minnesota |
| San Francisco | H2H | Green Bay |
| San Francisco | H2H | New Orleans |
| Minnesota | H2H | Dallas |
| LA Rams | CONF | Minnesota |
Finally, some additional notes on key potential tiebreaker scenarios:
- Pittsburgh and Tennessee are currently tied for the last AFC wildcard spot. They do not play head-to-head. Pittsburgh would win the tiebreaker if both teams finish 10-6, based on conference record. However, if both go 9-7, it would depend on which game Tennessee lost. If they lost to New Orleans (a team not in the AFC) but then beat Houston in Week 17, Tennessee would be in great shape, and likely have the strength of victory tiebreaker over Pittsburgh after tying them for conference record.
- The Los Angeles Rams’ only hope is to win both games and have Minnesota lose both. In that case, they would win a tiebreaker on conference record. They are eliminated with a loss or a Vikings win.
- In the event of a three-way tie in the NFC at either 13-3 or 12-4, things could get complicated. San Francisco would win any three-way tiebreaker at 13-3, because they beat the Saints head-to-head, and beat the Packers. New Orleans, right now, has the worst conference record at 8-3, which could be a factor. (If the Saints beat the Titans, they would clinch having a worse conference record than anyone they could tie with on overall record at the top of the NFC). Remember, in a three-way tie, unless a team has beaten both of the other opponents, it will go to the next tiebreaker of conference record to kick a team out.
We hope you enjoyed our NFL Playoff Predictions. Enjoy NFL Week 16, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 16 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
Predictions, Week 15
AFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the AFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 15:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore | 13.5 - 2.5 | 100.0% |
| 2 | New England | 12.6 - 3.4 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Kansas City | 11.1 - 4.9 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Houston | 9.4 - 6.6 | 67.6% |
| 5 | Buffalo | 10.4 - 5.6 | 95.2% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | 9.4 - 6.6 | 68.7% |
Here are the other AFC teams that still have at least a 0.05% chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 9.7 - 6.3 | 61.2% |
| Cleveland | 7.5 - 8.5 | 4.0% |
| Indianapolis | 7.5 - 8.5 | 2.9% |
| Oakland | 7.0 - 8.0 | 0.3% |
| Denver | 6.6 - 9.4 | 0.1% |
You might notice that Tennessee has a higher average win projection than Houston and Pittsburgh, but is slightly below both in projected playoff odds. To see why that is, you can read our tiebreaker section below.
NFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the NFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 15:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco | 13.1 - 2.9 | 99.8% |
| 2 | New Orleans | 11.7 - 4.3 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Green Bay | 11.6 - 4.4 | 91.2% |
| 4 | Dallas | 7.9 - 8.1 | 64.2% |
| 5 | Seattle | 11.8 - 4.2 | 98.0% |
| 6 | Minnesota | 10.8 - 5.2 | 76.4% |
Here are the other NFC teams that still have at least a 0.05% chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 7.8 - 8.2 | 35.1% |
| LA Rams | 9.6 - 6.4 | 31.5% |
| Chicago | 8.0 - 8.0 | 2.8% |
| Tampa Bay | 7.6 - 8.4 | 0.2% |
Super Bowl Predictions & Odds 2020
Here are our projected Super Bowl odds for the top ten favorites.
| Team | Division | New Super Bowl Win Odds | Super Bowl Win Odds Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | AFC North | 32.0% | 3.1% |
| San Francisco | NFC West | 20.7% | 3.5% |
| New England | AFC East | 18.8% | -6.0% |
| Kansas City | AFC West | 6.4% | 1.8% |
| New Orleans | NFC South | 5.1% | -1.3% |
| Seattle | NFC West | 3.9% | -1.4% |
| Green Bay | NFC North | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| Minnesota | NFC North | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Dallas | NFC East | 1.7% | -0.3% |
| Tennessee | AFC South | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Key Matchups Impacting 2020 NFL Playoffs Predictions
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Here we are in Week 15, and the Texans and Titans have yet to face off. The AFC South co-leaders will play twice in the final three weeks of the regular season, with Tennessee hosting the first matchup. We currently give Houston the slight edge to win the division (53% to 45%), and as noted below, Houston would win the division if the teams finish with the same record and split their head-to-head matchups. Regardless, Sunday’s game will be a big one for both squads.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys
The Rams are coming off a huge win vs. Seattle and visit a Cowboys team that has lost three straight. Even at 8-5, the Rams face tall odds to make the playoffs due to the top-heavy NFC, and they almost certainly need to win out, currently trailing the Vikings by one game. The Cowboys are tied with the Eagles in the NFC East at 6-7, with a Week 16 appointment at Philly currently on the docket. This is a big game for both sides.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Sunday night showdown between the Bills and Steelers has both AFC East division and AFC Wild Card implications. The Bills remain just one game back of the Patriots in the division despite losing to Baltimore last week, though the Pats would own the tiebreaker. While the Bills have a 95% chance to make the playoffs, a loss would put their Wild Card position in jeopardy with the Steelers just one game back in the standings. Pittsburgh has nearly a 69% chance to make the playoffs, and would see a strong boost with a win over Buffalo. Just the fact that the Steelers are in contention at all seemed improbable after losing Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2.
Tiebreakers for Potential 2020 Playoff Teams
In this section, we list the clinched tiebreakers in both the AFC and NFC. You can see the full list of NFL tiebreaker procedures here.
These charts include all teams within two games of a playoff spot (division or wildcard). They also only list the tiebreaker resolution for teams within two games of each other entering Week 14. It also only includes clinched tiebreakers. For example, New England beat Buffalo earlier this year, and the two teams meet again in Week 16. As of right now, New England has not clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker, since Buffalo can win the next matchup.
Here are the AFC clinched tiebreakers:
| Tiebreak Winner | Reason | Tiebreak Loser |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | H2H | New England |
| Baltimore | H2H | Houston |
| Baltimore | H2H | Buffalo |
| Kansas City | H2H | Baltimore |
| Kansas City | H2H | Oakland |
| Kansas City | H2H | New England |
| Houston | H2H | New England |
| Houston | H2H | Oakland |
| Houston | H2H | Kansas City |
| Buffalo | H2H | Tennessee |
| Pittsburgh | H2H | Indianapolis |
| Tennessee | H2H | Kansas City |
| Tennessee | H2H | Cleveland |
| Tennessee | H2H | Oakland |
| Oakland | H2H | Indianapolis |
| Indianapolis | H2H | Kansas City |
Next, here are the NFC clinched tiebreakers.
| Tiebreak Winner | Reason | Tiebreak Loser |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | H2H | Green Bay |
| San Francisco | H2H | New Orleans |
| New Orleans | H2H | Seattle |
| Seattle | H2H | Minnesota |
| Minnesota | H2H | Dallas |
| LA Rams | H2H | Chicago |
| LA Rams | CONF* | Seattle |
| Chicago | H2H* | Minnesota |
| Chicago | H2H | Dallas |
| Philadelphia | H2H | Chicago |
Two of those clinched scenarios are marked with an asterisk. That’s because the team listed as winning the tiebreaker must prevail on that tiebreaker (or one above it on the list) if the teams actually finish tied. For example, Chicago is 7-6 and Minnesota is 9-4. The only way that Chicago finishes tied with Minnesota includes another head-to-head win. Similarly, the only circumstances in which the Rams would tie Seattle on record (at either 11-5 or 10-6), the Rams would win the tiebreaker on either division record, common games, or conference record.
Finally, some additional notes on key potential tiebreaker scenarios:
- Houston and Tennessee are tied atop the AFC South and play each other twice in the last three weeks. If they split and finish with the same record, Houston would win the tiebreaker on divisional record, based on Tennessee’s earlier loss to Jacksonville.
- Pittsburgh and Tennessee are currently tied for the last AFC Wild Card spot. They do not play head-to-head. The first tiebreaker would be conference record, which Pittsburgh leads, with a 6-3 record versus 6-4 for Tennessee. Pittsburgh can clinch the common games tiebreaker (in the event the teams are tied on conference record) by beating Buffalo in Week 15.
- New England has a one-game lead on Buffalo for the AFC East, and the two teams meet in Week 16. But even if Buffalo wins that game, New England would win a tiebreaker based on common games as long as the Patriots win their other two games and finish 12-4. So Buffalo needs New England to lose another game (at Cincinnati or vs. Miami) to have a chance to win the division.
- Minnesota leads the Los Angeles Rams by one game for the final NFC wildcard spot. The first tiebreaker would be conference record. The Vikings are 7-3 in the NFC currently, while the Rams are 6-3. The Rams currently lead the common games, 3-1 versus 2-2 for Minnesota, with the win over Seattle (and Minnesota’s earlier loss to Chicago) being key. The remaining “common games” are the Rams playing Dallas in Week 15 and Minnesota playing Chicago in Week 17.
We hope you enjoyed our NFL Playoff Predictions. Enjoy NFL Week 15, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 15 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
Predictions, Week 14
AFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the AFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 14:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore | 13.2 - 2.8 | 100.0% |
| 2 | New England | 13.4 - 2.6 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Kansas City | 10.4 - 5.6 | 99.3% |
| 4 | Houston | 10.2 - 5.8 | 86.7% |
| 5 | Buffalo | 10.6 - 5.4 | 94.8% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | 9.0 - 7.0 | 52.9% |
Here are the other AFC teams that still have at least a 0.05% chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 9.2 - 6.8 | 47.3% |
| Indianapolis | 7.8 - 8.2 | 8.7% |
| Oakland | 7.5 - 8.5 | 6.9% |
| Cleveland | 7.3 - 8.7 | 3.1% |
| Denver | 5.8 - 10.2 | 0.3% |
| Jacksonville | 5.8 - 10.2 | 0.1% |
| NY Jets | 5.4 - 10.6 | 0.1% |
NFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the NFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 14:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco | 12.7 - 3.3 | 99.3% |
| 2 | New Orleans | 12.1 - 3.9 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Green Bay | 11.5 - 4.5 | 93.8% |
| 4 | Dallas | 8.5 - 7.5 | 74.1% |
| 5 | Seattle | 12.2 - 3.8 | 99.0% |
| 6 | Minnesota | 10.7 - 5.3 | 80.8% |
Here are the other NFC teams that still have at least a 0.05% chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Proj Record | Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 7.6 - 8.4 | 26.0% |
| LA Rams | 9.1 - 6.9 | 24.1% |
| Chicago | 7.5 - 8.5 | 2.7% |
| Tampa Bay | 7.2 - 8.8 | 0.4% |
Super Bowl Predictions & Odds 2020
Here are our projected Super Bowl odds for the top ten favorites.
| Team | Division | New Super Bowl Win Odds | Super Bowl Win Odds Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | AFC North | 28.9% | 4.2% |
| New England | AFC East | 24.8% | -6.3% |
| San Francisco | NFC West | 17.2% | -0.5% |
| New Orleans | NFC South | 6.4% | 1.5% |
| Seattle | NFC West | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Kansas City | AFC West | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Green Bay | NFC North | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Minnesota | NFC North | 3.1% | -2.1% |
| Dallas | NFC East | 2.0% | -0.7% |
| Houston | AFC South | 1.4% | 0.3% |
Key Matchups Impacting 2020 NFL Playoffs Predictions
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
The Bills seemed to quiet the skeptics with a big win at Dallas on Thanksgiving. A win over the current Super Bowl favorite would be an even bigger statement. Buffalo is in comfortable contention for the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Bills also stand a chance to end New England’s reign in the AFC East, trailing by just one game in the standings. Meanwhile, Baltimore is trying to keep rolling aboard the Lamar Jackson train, currently standing as the No. 1 seed in the AFC by virtue of defeating New England head-to-head.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Siants
The outcome of this NFC showdown could go a long way in determining playoff seeding. Both the Saints and 49ers are 10-2, though the teams also have brutal remaining schedules. New Orleans has basically wrapped up the NFC South title. San Francisco is tied with Seattle in the NFC West with a visit to the Seahawks in Week 17.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
The Chiefs took care of business last week vs. Oakland, while the sky is seemingly falling in New England after a loss at Houston. The Patriots will try to stop the bleeding against the Chiefs. Both teams have 99%-plus odds to make the playoffs, according to our projections. But a loss by the Patriots would put their quest for homefield advantage in even bigger jeopardy.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle has become the king of winning close games, with nine of their 10 victories coming by eight points or less. That includes a 30-29 win over the Rams in Week 5. The Seahawks are still trying to keep pace with the 49ers in the NFC West, with a realistic shot of winning the division. The defending NFC Champion Rams are just trying to hold onto their slim playoff hopes at 7-5, one game behind the Vikings. Minnesota is a huge favorite vs. Detroit this week, so the Rams can ill-afford to lose this matchup.
Tiebreakers for Potential 2020 Playoff Teams
In this section, we list the clinched tiebreakers in both the AFC and NFC. You can see the full list of NFL tiebreaker procedures here.
These charts include all teams within two games of a playoff spot (division or wildcard). They also only list the tiebreaker resolution for teams within two games of each other entering Week 14. It also only includes clinched tiebreakers. For example, New England beat Buffalo earlier this year, and the two teams meet again in Week 16. As of right now, New England has not clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker, since Buffalo can win the next matchup.
Here are the AFC clinched tiebreakers:
| Tiebreak Winner | Reason | Tiebreak Loser |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | H2H | New England |
| New England | Common Games | Buffalo |
| Houston | H2H | New England |
| Houston | DIV | Tennessee |
| Houston | H2H | Kansas City |
| Kansas City | H2H | Baltimore |
| Buffalo | H2H | Pittsburgh |
| Buffalo | H2H | Tennessee |
| Pittsburgh | H2H | Indianapolis |
| Tennessee | H2H | Kansas City |
| Tennessee | H2H | Cleveland |
Next, here are the NFC clinched tiebreakers.
| Tiebreak Winner | Reason | Tiebreak Loser |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | H2H | Seattle |
| Seattle | H2H | Minnesota |
| Green Bay | DIV | Minnesota |
| San Francisco | H2H | Green Bay |
| San Francisco | H2H | New Orleans |
| Minnesota | H2H | Dallas |
| LA Rams | CONF | Minnesota |
Finally, some additional notes on key potential tiebreaker scenarios:
- Pittsburgh and Tennessee are currently tied for the last AFC wildcard spot. They do not play head-to-head. The first tiebreaker would be conference record, which Pittsburgh leads, with a 6-3 record versus 5-4 for Tennessee. Pittsburgh can also clinch the common games tiebreaker (in the event the teams are tied on conference record) by beating Buffalo in Week 15.
- Minnesota leads the Los Angeles Rams by one game for the final NFC wildcard spot. The first tiebreaker would be conference record. The Vikings are 6-3 in the NFC currently, while the Rams are 5-3. The Rams currently lead the common games, 2-1 versus 2-2 for Minnesota. That makes this week’s game against Seattle a big one for the Rams, as they need a win not only to keep pace, but it also is a valuable win for both the conference and common games tiebreaker.
We hope you enjoyed our NFL Playoff Predictions. Enjoy NFL Week 14, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 14 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
NFL Playoff Predictions, Week of November 26th
AFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the AFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 13:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 14.2 - 1.8 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Baltimore | 12.9 - 3.1 | 99.9% |
| 3 | Kansas City | 10.2 - 5.8 | 94.6% |
| 4 | Houston | 9.6 - 6.4 | 75.9% |
| 5 | Buffalo | 9.8 - 6.2 | 79.4% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | 8.5 - 7.5 | 45.0% |
Here are the other AFC teams that still have a mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Proj Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 8.5 - 7.5 | 34.9% |
| Indianapolis | 8.4 - 7.6 | 33.9% |
| Cleveland | 7.7 - 8.3 | 18.2% |
| Oakland | 7.7 - 8.3 | 15.0% |
| LA Chargers | 6.6 - 9.4 | 1.2% |
| Jacksonville | 6.3 - 9.7 | 1.0% |
| NY Jets | 6.1 - 9.9 | 0.6% |
| Denver | 5.2 - 10.8 | 0.3% |
NFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the NFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 13:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco | 13.1 - 2.9 | 99.6% |
| 2 | New Orleans | 11.7 - 4.3 | 98.8% |
| 3 | Minnesota | 11.2 - 4.8 | 92.6% |
| 4 | Dallas | 9.3 - 6.7 | 73.8% |
| 5 | Seattle | 11.7 - 4.3 | 96.2% |
| 6 | Green Bay | 11.1 - 4.9 | 91.7% |
Here are the other NFC teams that still have a mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Proj Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 8.4 - 7.6 | 28.0% |
| LA Rams | 8.6 - 7.4 | 14.7% |
| Carolina | 7.5 - 8.5 | 2.5% |
| Chicago | 6.9 - 9.1 | 1.9% |
| Tampa Bay | 6.6 - 9.4 | 0.2% |
Super Bowl Predictions & Odds 2020
Here are our projected Super Bowl odds for the top ten favorites.
| Team | Division | New Super Bowl Win Odds | Super Bowl Win Odds Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England | AFC East | 31.1% | -2.6% |
| Baltimore | AFC North | 24.7% | 6.5% |
| San Francisco | NFC West | 17.7% | 3.2% |
| Minnesota | NFC North | 5.2% | -0.6% |
| New Orleans | NFC South | 4.9% | -0.7% |
| Seattle | NFC West | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Kansas City | AFC West | 3.5% | -1.3% |
| Green Bay | NFC North | 2.9% | -3.1% |
| Dallas | NFC East | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Houston | AFC South | 1.1% | -0.5% |
Key Matchups Impacting 2020 NFL Playoffs Predictions
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs currently hold a one-game lead over the Raiders in the AFC West and also own the tiebreaker after winning at Oakland in Week 2. The lead would be nearly insurmountable if the Chiefs win this week, as they would have a two-game lead over Oakland at 8-4 and also own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Even prior to the matchup, we give the Chiefs a 93% chance to win their fourth consecutive AFC West title.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
The Titans and Colts remain in the hunt in the AFC South, just one game behind the Texans. The teams are also tied with Pittsburgh and Oakland for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. While we don’t give either team more than a 35% chance to make the playoffs this year, the winner of this game will certainly get a boost, especially with Houston (vs. Patriots) and Oakland (at Chiefs) in tough Week 13 matchups.
San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens
The rematch of Super Bowl XLVII could also be a preview of Super Bowl LIV, with San Francisco and Baltimore both currently in prime positions. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the favorite for league MVP, but Baltimore will be playing on a short week after defeating the Rams on Monday. The 49ers are still at risk of losing the NFC West, leading Seattle by only one game, and the Ravens are trying to jump New England for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
AFC division leaders will square off when the Patriots visit Houston. At 10-1, the Patriots are hoping to hold onto homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, while Houston is currently leading the AFC South by just one game ahead of Tennessee and Indianapolis.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
The Vikings and Seahawks are in similar spots entering Week 13. Minnesota is tied with Green Bay for the NFC North lead at 8-3, while the Seahawks are 9-2, trailing the 49ers by one game in the NFC West. Both teams have better than a 90% chance to make the playoffs, according to our current projections, but a win would be a major boost for their hopes of winning their respective divisions.
We hope you enjoyed our NFL Playoff Predictions. Enjoy NFL Week 13, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 12 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
NFL Playoff Predictions, Week of November 19th
AFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the AFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 12:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 13.9 - 2.1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Baltimore | 12.3 - 3.7 | 99.4% |
| 3 | Kansas City | 10.1 - 5.9 | 91.2% |
| 4 | Houston | 9.3 - 6.7 | 69.7% |
| 5 | Buffalo | 9.4 - 6.6 | 63.6% |
| 6 | Indianapolis | 8.8 - 7.2 | 50.0% |
Here are the other AFC teams that still have a mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Projected Wins | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 8.3 - 7.7 | 39.1% |
| Oakland | 8.5 - 7.5 | 35.6% |
| Tennessee | 8.0 - 8.0 | 23.6% |
| Cleveland | 7.6 - 8.4 | 18.6% |
| Jacksonville | 6.7 - 9.3 | 5.9% |
| LA Chargers | 6.5 - 9.5 | 1.6% |
| Denver | 5.7 - 10.3 | 1.4% |
| NY Jets | 5.4 - 10.6 | 0.3% |
NFC Playoff Predictions & Odds 2020
Here is our prediction for the NFC Playoff seeding, heading into Week 12:
| Seed | Team | Proj Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco | 12.6 - 3.4 | 96.6% |
| 2 | Green Bay | 11.6 - 4.4 | 92.6% |
| 3 | New Orleans | 11.5 - 4.5 | 94.3% |
| 4 | Dallas | 9.4 - 6.6 | 64.6% |
| 5 | Minnesota | 11.1 - 4.9 | 88.2% |
| 6 | Seattle | 11.0 - 5.0 | 79.3% |
Here are the other NFC teams that still have a mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs, along with their odds to do so:
| Team | Projected Wins | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 9.1 - 6.9 | 43.5% |
| LA Rams | 9.4 - 6.6 | 31.1% |
| Carolina | 7.8 - 8.2 | 8.2% |
| Chicago | 6.8 - 9.2 | 1.2% |
| Detroit | 5.8 - 10.2 | 0.2% |
| Atlanta | 6.0 - 10.0 | 0.1% |
Super Bowl Predictions & Odds 2020
Here are our projected Super Bowl odds for the top ten favorites.
| Team | Division | New Super Bowl Win Odds | Super Bowl Win Odds Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England | AFC East | 33.8% | 0.7% |
| Baltimore | AFC North | 18.2% | 5.4% |
| San Francisco | NFC West | 14.5% | -2.7% |
| Green Bay | NFC North | 6.0% | -0.8% |
| Minnesota | NFC North | 5.8% | -0.5% |
| New Orleans | NFC South | 5.6% | 1.8% |
| Kansas City | AFC West | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Seattle | NFC West | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Dallas | NFC East | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Houston | AFC South | 1.5% | -2.5% |
Key Matchups Impacting 2020 NFL Playoffs Predictions
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Perhaps no game in Week 12 has bigger playoff implications than the Thursday Night Football showdown between AFC South rivals Indianapolis and Houston. The teams are tied in the division at 6-4, but the Colts currently own the tiebreaker after defeating the Texans in Indy back in Week 7. The teams are also in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race, but winning the division is clearly the easier path for each team. The Colts would own the division tiebreaker over the Texans with a second head-to-head win, but the Titans (5-5) and Jaguars (4-6) are also still within striking distance.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle still has some hope to win the NFC West, trailing the 49ers by one game at 8-2, but are more likely looking at a Wild Card berth. They can help their cause significantly with a win at Philadelphia, who is still competing for an NFC East title at 5-5, one game behind the Cowboys. Philadelphia is also hoping to avoid losing back-to-back games after they lost to New England 17-10 on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
The Eagles failed to beat the Patriots last week, but now another NFC East team gets a shot. Dallas currently has a one game lead over the Eagles in the division but will get a difficult test as they visit the one-loss Patriots. As for New England, they’re currently sitting pretty as the No. 1 seed in the AFC at 9-1 and have a 99.5% chance of winning the AFC East, but a loss and Ravens win in Week 12 would open up the door for the Ravens to get the top seed, as they already have the tiebreaker over the Patriots.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
This week’s Sunday Night Football game features a pair of long-time NFC powers that have returned to glory in 2019. Green Bay currently holds a half-game lead over the Vikings in the NFC North at 8-2 and would slot in as the conference’s No. 2 seed if the season ended today. San Francisco remains the No. 1 seed in the conference at 9-1 but have Seattle breathing down their necks in the NFC West at 8-2. The game has huge implications both for the teams’ respective divisions and conference seeding.
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